December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 3:14 pm It wont last long, i think it will be above normal for the first 10 -12 days of January, and then it will flip again
Yeah I’m thinking mid/late January it could turn colder again.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Mon Dec 19, 2022 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 3:24 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 3:12 pm Bad news as we head towards the end of the month and January. Looks like a coast to coast torch is coming. +EPO
People use the word torch too much when its above normal. It's not a torch. Its some Pacific air that scours out the cold, but it doesn't really get that warm, and that's probably thanks to a wet pattern.

EPO tanks again first week of January.
Probably 50’s for lows 70’s for highs. Not terrible.
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srainhoutx
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Well it was 19 yesterday morning and 17 this morning here at the house. You folks enjoy your upper teens to low 20’s. I'm expecting near or just below 0 Christmas Eve morning.
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:04 pm Well it was 19 yesterday morning and 17 this morning here at the house. You folks enjoy your upper teens to low 20’s. I'm expecting near or just below 0 Christmas Eve morning.
We were in the NC mountains in late 1983 skiing. It was below 0°F for a couple of nights, but we escaped any pipes bursting in the rental. That didn't stop us from skiing, and the snow was less icy.
Cpv17
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srainhoutx wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:04 pm Well it was 19 yesterday morning and 17 this morning here at the house. You folks enjoy your upper teens to low 20’s. I'm expecting near or just below 0 Christmas Eve morning.
I want to experience these types of conditions every once in a while but I don’t think I’d want to live permanently in an area that gets that cold on a regular basis like that. I’m honestly a wuss when it comes to the cold. I like to go outside and experience it for a few minutes and maybe walk around in just some shorts with no shirt on for a couple minutes but after that I’m ready to get back in the house and warm up lol I noticed when we got the snow here in 04, 09, 17, & 21 that I would go outside in short spurts. Go out there for 10-15 minutes, come back in the house for 30-45 min to warm up, then go back out there again lol. The perfect ideal winter for me would be average lows in the 20’s and average highs in the 40’s or 50’s with 2-4 snowstorms where we get at least 4+” with each one and at least one of those being 10” or more. And I’d also like to experience temps in the single digits and teens a few times every winter with one or two chances at subzero temperatures. In a perfect world, right :lol:

The thing about is that I don’t really get excited about anything weather related unless it’s happening in southeast Texas. Like for example, going to the mountains in Colorado to experience a blizzard would be kinda meh for me. You expect that there. Nothing exciting about that.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:22 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:04 pm Well it was 19 yesterday morning and 17 this morning here at the house. You folks enjoy your upper teens to low 20’s. I'm expecting near or just below 0 Christmas Eve morning.
I want to experience these types of conditions every once in a while but I don’t think I’d want to live permanently in an area that gets that cold on a regular basis like that. I’m honestly a wuss when it comes to the cold. I like to go outside and experience it for a few minutes and maybe walk around in just some shorts with no shirt on for a couple minutes but after that I’m ready to get back in the house and warm up lol I noticed when we got the snow here in 04, 09, 17, & 21 that I would go outside in short spurts. Go out there for 10-15 minutes, come back in the house for 30-45 min to warm up, then go back out there again lol. The perfect ideal winter for me would be average lows in the 20’s and average highs in the 40’s or 50’s with 2-4 snowstorms where we get at least 4+” with each one and at least one of those being 10” or more. And I’d also like to experience temps in the single digits and teens a few times every winter with one or two chances at subzero temperatures. In a perfect world, right :lol:

The thing about is that I don’t really get excited about anything weather related unless it’s happening in southeast Texas. Like for example, going to the mountains in Colorado to experience a blizzard would be kinda meh for me. You expect that there. Nothing exciting about that.
You say that about the mountains, but experiencing 2-3 feet in one day is pretty amazing.

I love skiing when it’s sub 10 degrees with a light to moderate snow.
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jasons2k
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CPV what you described sounds a lot like Oklahoma or Kansas.

This system looks progressive enough and the jet doesn’t do a deep dive down to Cozumel…so the worst of the cold doesn’t dump straight down. It moves out quickly so not much of a radiational freeze. But it will be windy. I’m hoping to bottom-out in the middle teens versus the low teens based on what I see today.

It’s going to be an advective freeze so gardeners beware. Covering and tenting will only help so much so bring in what you can.

I would much prefer 6” of heavy wet snow in 30 degrees than the misery that Thu PM - Sat AM will bring us. Those 70’s next week will be even better.

PS - my skin is already like a reptile. Only gonna get worse.
Stratton20
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An ideal winter for me is highs in the 40’s and lows in the 30’s haha, anything above 60 in winter is disgusting at least to me, but sadly we rebound into the nasty 70’s next week
Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:28 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:22 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:04 pm Well it was 19 yesterday morning and 17 this morning here at the house. You folks enjoy your upper teens to low 20’s. I'm expecting near or just below 0 Christmas Eve morning.
I want to experience these types of conditions every once in a while but I don’t think I’d want to live permanently in an area that gets that cold on a regular basis like that. I’m honestly a wuss when it comes to the cold. I like to go outside and experience it for a few minutes and maybe walk around in just some shorts with no shirt on for a couple minutes but after that I’m ready to get back in the house and warm up lol I noticed when we got the snow here in 04, 09, 17, & 21 that I would go outside in short spurts. Go out there for 10-15 minutes, come back in the house for 30-45 min to warm up, then go back out there again lol. The perfect ideal winter for me would be average lows in the 20’s and average highs in the 40’s or 50’s with 2-4 snowstorms where we get at least 4+” with each one and at least one of those being 10” or more. And I’d also like to experience temps in the single digits and teens a few times every winter with one or two chances at subzero temperatures. In a perfect world, right :lol:

The thing about is that I don’t really get excited about anything weather related unless it’s happening in southeast Texas. Like for example, going to the mountains in Colorado to experience a blizzard would be kinda meh for me. You expect that there. Nothing exciting about that.
You say that about the mountains, but experiencing 2-3 feet in one day is pretty amazing.

I love skiing when it’s sub 10 degrees with a light to moderate snow.
Oh I don’t doubt it. I’m sure that would be a pretty cool experience. I definitely would love to experience that at least once in my life.
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:41 pm CPV what you described sounds a lot like Oklahoma or Kansas.

This system looks progressive enough and the jet doesn’t do a deep dive down to Cozumel…so the worst of the cold doesn’t dump straight down. It moves out quickly so not much of a radiational freeze. But it will be windy. I’m hoping to bottom-out in the middle teens versus the low teens based on what I see today.

It’s going to be an advective freeze so gardeners beware. Covering and tenting will only help so much so bring in what you can.

I would much prefer 6” of heavy wet snow in 30 degrees than the misery that Thu PM - Sat AM will bring us. Those 70’s next week will be even better.

PS - my skin is already like a reptile. Only gonna get worse.
Yeah, Oklahoma or Kansas was kinda what I was thinking too. And thankfully for you, the ridging off the Pacific coast that extends into the SW is a big reason why the cold won’t stay around too long and why the trough pushes more ESE/SE instead of straight south. That’s what also screwed up our chances of a white Christmas though too. Originally that ridging wasn’t supposed to be there.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:48 pm An ideal winter for me is highs in the 40’s and lows in the 30’s haha, anything above 60 in winter is disgusting at least to me, but sadly we rebound into the nasty 70’s next week
Not so fast on the 70s next week. Models are coming around to my line of thinking.

Positive EPO scours out the extreme cold, but takes us back to average, roughly, and we don’t get there until Thursday of next week. It’s possible some of you south of I10 folks touch low 70s, but it will feel nothing like the first 10 days of December with 70s and humid.
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don
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Good Video update from HGX (local national weather service)They're expecting the windchill to be in the single digits and negatives!😐

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X42PIFlxj64
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:59 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:48 pm An ideal winter for me is highs in the 40’s and lows in the 30’s haha, anything above 60 in winter is disgusting at least to me, but sadly we rebound into the nasty 70’s next week
Not so fast on the 70s next week. Models are coming around to my line of thinking.

Positive EPO scours out the extreme cold, but takes us back to average, roughly, and we don’t get there until Thursday of next week. It’s possible some of you south of I10 folks touch low 70s, but it will feel nothing like the first 10 days of December with 70s and humid.

This!!!
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:41 pm CPV what you described sounds a lot like Oklahoma or Kansas.

This system looks progressive enough and the jet doesn’t do a deep dive down to Cozumel…so the worst of the cold doesn’t dump straight down. It moves out quickly so not much of a radiational freeze. But it will be windy. I’m hoping to bottom-out in the middle teens versus the low teens based on what I see today.

It’s going to be an advective freeze so gardeners beware. Covering and tenting will only help so much so bring in what you can.

I would much prefer 6” of heavy wet snow in 30 degrees than the misery that Thu PM - Sat AM will bring us. Those 70’s next week will be even better.

PS - my skin is already like a reptile. Only gonna get worse.

Shroud for the wind and spray with water. The ice will protect foliage.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:59 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:48 pm An ideal winter for me is highs in the 40’s and lows in the 30’s haha, anything above 60 in winter is disgusting at least to me, but sadly we rebound into the nasty 70’s next week
Not so fast on the 70s next week. Models are coming around to my line of thinking.

Positive EPO scours out the extreme cold, but takes us back to average, roughly, and we don’t get there until Thursday of next week. It’s possible some of you south of I10 folks touch low 70s, but it will feel nothing like the first 10 days of December with 70s and humid.
There were predictions for 70s this week as well.

Pac fronts bring seasonable weather.
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:40 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:04 pm Well it was 19 yesterday morning and 17 this morning here at the house. You folks enjoy your upper teens to low 20’s. I'm expecting near or just below 0 Christmas Eve morning.
We were in the NC mountains in late 1983 skiing. It was below 0°F for a couple of nights, but we escaped any pipes bursting in the rental. That didn't stop us from skiing, and the snow was less icy.
They are more prepared to deal with cold weather. I have skiied in mountainous areas, in the Western US.
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It’s been drizzling here the last hour plus.
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:22 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:40 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:04 pm Well it was 19 yesterday morning and 17 this morning here at the house. You folks enjoy your upper teens to low 20’s. I'm expecting near or just below 0 Christmas Eve morning.
We were in the NC mountains in late 1983 skiing. It was below 0°F for a couple of nights, but we escaped any pipes bursting in the rental. That didn't stop us from skiing, and the snow was less icy.
They are more prepared to deal with cold weather. I have skiied in mountainous areas, in the Western US.
Yes and no. Houses in the NC mountains are built on foundations, so all the pipes underneath the house in the crawlspace have to be insulated. Foundations have built in warming - mother Earth. water lines and pipes in attics have to be insulated or dripped. When the temp was below 0°F, we definitely dripped water.

If the argument is that many houses in Texas are not sufficiently or are sloppily insulated, then I agree! That applies to summer energy costs big time as wel... I'm looking to see if we can blow or place more insulation in our western walls.

I have a plan to keep the garage and attic above freezing. We did well in Feb. 2021. Fingers crossed!
Stratton20
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lol the 00z CMC keeps us in the 30’s and 40’s for highs all the way through next wednesday lol
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 10:56 pm lol the 00z CMC keeps us in the 30’s and 40’s for highs all the way through next wednesday lol
I’d love that lol
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