December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Iceresistance
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Re: December 2022

Post by Iceresistance » Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:25 am

You should see Larry Cosgrove's forecast :shock:

Stratton20
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Re: December 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:17 pm

Some of the 12z GEFS members get interesting around the same time frame Larry is talking about, December could get interesting around here


Cpv17
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Re: December 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Nov 23, 2022 6:41 pm

I would like to see the ridging in the long range over the Aleutians move east towards the GOA/western Canada. Not liking what I’m seeing there. It’s not positioned in the right place.

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sambucol
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Re: December 2022

Post by sambucol » Wed Nov 23, 2022 7:16 pm

I messaged Larry Cosgrove, and asked home what he thought the weather might be for our part of Texas for Dec 9 & 10. I am
part of an outdoor Christmas performance those 2 nights. He said he was leaning to cloudy, cold, and drizzly with frozen precipitation not being too far north, but it’s early to be specific.

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Re: December 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Nov 23, 2022 7:51 pm

sambucol wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 7:16 pm
I messaged Larry Cosgrove, and asked home what he thought the weather might be for our part of Texas for Dec 9 & 10. I am
part of an outdoor Christmas performance those 2 nights. He said he was leaning to cloudy, cold, and drizzly with frozen precipitation not being too far north, but it’s early to be specific.
Well for now the models and the CPC are keeping the colder air in the northern half of the country but we’ll see how that holds up.

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snowman65
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Re: December 2022

Post by snowman65 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:17 am

Right need the CPC is the most believable to me

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Re: December 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:35 am

snowman65 wrote:
Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:17 am
Right need the CPC is the most believable to me
They’re kinda contradicting themselves right now though with their 8-14 day outlook to their 3-4 week outlook.

Stratton20
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Re: December 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 10:52 am

I unfortunately dont agree with the 8-14 day outlook, your not going to get any cold air down here with the SE ridge flexing its muscle, no chance at all, i expect it to trend back to warmer than normal unfortunately

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Re: December 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:11 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Nov 24, 2022 10:52 am
I unfortunately dont agree with the 8-14 day outlook, your not going to get any cold air down here with the SE ridge flexing its muscle, no chance at all, i expect it to trend back to warmer than normal unfortunately
It all depends on where the EPO ridging sets up. If it sets up in the same area it did with this last cold spell then we’ll have a much better chance but from what I saw yesterday it looks like the ridging wants to setup over the Aleutians which would favor a -PNA and promote a SE ridge.

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