December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
brazoriatx
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 12:34 pm 12z GFS has a really active sub tropical jet and a developing winter storm in texas at hour 240 or so, we shall see
Won't make it this far south though
Stratton20
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brazoriatx way too early to tell, still more questions than answers, but this kind of upcoming pattern does spell the potential for a southern storm track, every little dip in the jet stream helps to bring the storm track further south over time
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Nat Gas spiking. Traders have bought into the pattern change.

Europe is so screwed. Lol, I feel sorry for the poor saps who didn’t vote for the insanity their puppet leaders are pushing.
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Stratton20
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Below Normal Temps and Above Normal Precipitation,👀👀👀hmmmm
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:36 pm Below Normal Temps and Above Normal Precipitation,👀👀👀hmmmm
That's an about face.

Seriously though, CPC did that in 2021. February was going to be above average, then when first signs of a freeze coming showed, they stepped it down to neutral, then light blue then 3 days later we were in the dark blues.

Will be fun to follow.
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Cromagnum
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Couldn't resist.


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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:16 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:07 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:04 pm My guess is the Ural ridge initiates a SSW …
I’ve never heard of the Ural ridge. All I know is that it’s some mountain range in Russia.
Yep, my guess is that ridge pokes the SPV and weakens it sending cold air our way.
Here's a paper on the Ural Ridge - SSW relationship.

Usually there is a cold nasty trough in Siberia and all the cold air pooled east of the Urals becomes intense. If the Ural Ridge breaks down due to an SSW then the Frigid Siberian air jailbreaks into either Western Europe or into Alaska, Canada, and potentially the US.


https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 22-06353-7
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 12:34 pm 12z GFS has a really active sub tropical jet and a developing winter storm in texas at hour 240 or so, we shall see
That's more like an El Nino winter than La Nina. The SST should be quieter. Hmmmmmm...
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jasons2k
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I’ve been away for awhile. I’m back and enjoying the last bit of warm weather for awhile it seems. Christmas period could get interesting.

MontgomeryCoWx - we will miss you bro!! Seriously! I know you will enjoy the coldness and congratulations on making dreams come true! Please do check-in like our friend SRain.

Will send you a PM 🦆😀
Iceresistance
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Even the 18z GFS trolled me with absolutely no snow!
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