December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Ensembles look terrible. I’m sure we’ll get something within the next couple weeks but definitely don’t see anything impressive headed our way. Still hopeful but my confidence level definitely decreased some today.
Stratton20
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The polar vortex is expected to weaken in the next several weeks, their of course will be lots of volatility in the models, im not buying the ensembles ,it its going to take 2-3 weeks but the cold will come, my confidence level is around 50-60%, this is a pattern that takes time to change, but I do expect to see changes in the weeks ahead

We already have one positive, the trends have been for the SE Ridge to get squashed in the medium range, that is just one piece of the puzzle, but its a start

Another positive is that the PNA looks to trend and stay close to neutral in the coming weeks for a while as a ridge builds out west in response, we can see that in the GFS
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 5:35 pm The polar vortex is expected to weaken in the next several weeks, their of course will be lots of volatility in the models, im not buying the ensembles ,it its going to take 2-3 weeks but the cold will come, my confidence level is around 50-60%, this is a pattern that takes time to change, but I do expect to see changes in the weeks ahead

We already have one positive, the trends have been for the SE Ridge to get squashed in the medium range, that is just one piece of the puzzle, but its a start

Another positive is that the PNA looks to trend and stay close to neutral in the coming weeks for a while as a ridge builds out west in response, we can see that in the GFS
That dang Aleutian ridge is screwing up a perfect opportunity. Hopefully we start seeing an improvement on that.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I agree that ridge placement is not in a good spot, but i think ita going to change over the next several weeks, plus the end of the 12z Euro does have a very cold airmass building in in western canada, so irs not like models have dropped it yet
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 5:25 pm Ensembles look terrible. I’m sure we’ll get something within the next couple weeks but definitely don’t see anything impressive headed our way. Still hopeful but my confidence level definitely decreased some today.
LOL, y’all live and die with each model run.

Euro looks just fine. Canadian too. I don’t even look at the GFS past 5 days.
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Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 5:59 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 5:25 pm Ensembles look terrible. I’m sure we’ll get something within the next couple weeks but definitely don’t see anything impressive headed our way. Still hopeful but my confidence level definitely decreased some today.
LOL, y’all live and die with each model run.

Euro looks just fine. Canadian too. I don’t even look at the GFS past 5 days.
I’ve yet to see a model run or any ensemble run that look very favorable for us. All I’ve seen is a bunch of Twitter talk and YouTubers that hype up everything. The ridge placement over the Aleutians is not going to bring us cold down here no matter what the AO, PNA, or NAO does. Give me proof and actual science and not just a bunch of talk/hype. I’ve seen this talk and hype too many times fail to come to fruition. That’s why I’ve learned to be skeptical about it.
Cpv17
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MCW, you’re a smart dude. Explain to us what you’re seeing. Educate. You’ve gone in depth before, do it again please lol

I know a decent amount about the weather but don’t think I’m on your level yet lol

I miss srain!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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You’re missing the recipe completely and focusing on model to model run.

AAM collapsing, ridge bridging, warm pool in PAC, and no one is discussing the cryosphere and the Tongan explosion effects on our upper levels.

AAM is going to lock in long term ridges. With our AO and NAO in place, we don’t need a severe negative EPO… just a somewhat favorable one. PNA looks in our favor and even if it wasn’t we would still be below average with the above ingredients.

There’s a reason why some of the studs in the industry are confident.
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Ptarmigan
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:28 pm You’re missing the recipe completely and focusing on model to model run.

AAM collapsing, ridge bridging, warm pool in PAC, and no one is discussing the cryosphere and the Tongan explosion effects on our upper levels.

AAM is going to lock in long term ridges. With our AO and NAO in place, we don’t need a severe negative EPO… just a somewhat favorable one. PNA looks in our favor and even if it wasn’t we would still be below average with the above ingredients.

There’s a reason why some of the studs in the industry are confident.
I have seen cold blasts where EPO was positive, while NAO and AO are negative. Or vice versa where EPO was negative and NAO and AO are negative. Same goes with PNA. The warm pool off the coast of Alaska favors negative EPO.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Ptarmigan wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:43 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:28 pm You’re missing the recipe completely and focusing on model to model run.

AAM collapsing, ridge bridging, warm pool in PAC, and no one is discussing the cryosphere and the Tongan explosion effects on our upper levels.

AAM is going to lock in long term ridges. With our AO and NAO in place, we don’t need a severe negative EPO… just a somewhat favorable one. PNA looks in our favor and even if it wasn’t we would still be below average with the above ingredients.

There’s a reason why some of the studs in the industry are confident.
I have seen cold blasts where EPO was positive, while NAO and AO are negative. Or vice versa where EPO was negative and NAO and AO are negative. Same goes with PNA. The warm pool off the coast of Alaska favors negative EPO.

The positive EPO blasts just ooze and bleed slowly down.
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