December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Cpv17
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Ptarmigan wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:43 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:28 pm You’re missing the recipe completely and focusing on model to model run.

AAM collapsing, ridge bridging, warm pool in PAC, and no one is discussing the cryosphere and the Tongan explosion effects on our upper levels.

AAM is going to lock in long term ridges. With our AO and NAO in place, we don’t need a severe negative EPO… just a somewhat favorable one. PNA looks in our favor and even if it wasn’t we would still be below average with the above ingredients.

There’s a reason why some of the studs in the industry are confident.
I have seen cold blasts where EPO was positive, while NAO and AO are negative. Or vice versa where EPO was negative and NAO and AO are negative. Same goes with PNA. The warm pool off the coast of Alaska favors negative EPO.
I have never heard of a cold blast coming from a positive EPO in my life. I don’t even see really how that’s scientifically possible. Guess this goes to show you I’m still very much a novice when it comes to the weather lol.

I’ve also never heard of AAM or the cryosphere :lol:

I know nothing about that. I hate when other people know so much more than me. Makes me feel dumb. Got some learning to do!

I’m not really focusing on the models run to run though. I just try to look at all the model runs throughout the entire day (CMC, Euro, GFS, GEFS, EPS) and kinda average them all out. I also look at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. I just haven’t seen anything on a consistent basis that gets me excited for anything. It’s hard for me to believe something and buy into it till I start seeing it cuz to me all that is is just talk. It seems like we’ve been talking about this for weeks already and it keeps getting pushed back. You’d figure by now it would start to show up on the CPC outlooks and see hints of it on the models. How much longer do we have to wait till it starts showing up in their outlooks and on the models? I’ve bought into this talk before and been burned so I have my guard up. That’s just how I defend myself from getting upset if it doesn’t happen.

The teleconnections are all lining up (-AO, -NAO, -EPO, trending towards a neutral PNA). So why aren’t we seeing anything on the models yet? Well the only thing I can see is because there’s not enough ridging over eastern Alaska and NW Canada.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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How many times do models flip flop when you’re 7 plus days out and a pattern change is taking place?

You know the answer. It’s a lot.

I wouldn’t fret about it not happening unless we get to 12/8-12/10 and you’re not seeing ensembles buy in.

I’d say my confidence of this happening (below average to well below from the 12th on at a 8/10 confidence.

A 5 is high in the weather world. 8 is pretty damn sure.

What I’m not sure of is projection of cold. Will we be 10 below normal or 20-30 for a good stretch? That’s my million dollar question
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Stratton20
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And the other question is will the southern branch be active with any arctic air moving in
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MontgomeryCoWx
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As for AAM. Here’s a good tweet from Eric Webb on it.

“Global mountain torque getting driven into the floor this week.

Overall, this signals a forthcoming decrease in Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAMa), favoring slow, meandering jet streams, wave breaking, & high-latitude blocking (-NAO & -EPO) the next few-several weeks”


Simplest way to describe a longer term pattern lock. Not the only variable but an important one.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 9:55 pm And the other question is will the southern branch be active with any arctic air moving in
Another great question. Too early to be confident one way or the other. If you want to look at the pretty CFS maps, it says it will be somewhat active.
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Stratton20
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12z Euro took a good step in the right direction for cold air, now breaks down the SE Ridge and develops a ridge out in the west in response to the PNA going neutral, also has ridging in a better position over alaska compared to prior runs although not perfect yet, strong blocking over Greenland, cold air begins to build in Canada, definitely an encouraging run
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Watch that Greenland block. If it sets up over proper Gree land then it forces a positive PNA.

Right now the models want to set it up South and east of proper Greenland which pushes a neutral PNA.
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 8:59 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:43 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:28 pm You’re missing the recipe completely and focusing on model to model run.

AAM collapsing, ridge bridging, warm pool in PAC, and no one is discussing the cryosphere and the Tongan explosion effects on our upper levels.

AAM is going to lock in long term ridges. With our AO and NAO in place, we don’t need a severe negative EPO… just a somewhat favorable one. PNA looks in our favor and even if it wasn’t we would still be below average with the above ingredients.

There’s a reason why some of the studs in the industry are confident.
I have seen cold blasts where EPO was positive, while NAO and AO are negative. Or vice versa where EPO was negative and NAO and AO are negative. Same goes with PNA. The warm pool off the coast of Alaska favors negative EPO.
I have never heard of a cold blast coming from a positive EPO in my life. I don’t even see really how that’s scientifically possible. Guess this goes to show you I’m still very much a novice when it comes to the weather lol.

I’ve also never heard of AAM or the cryosphere :lol:

I know nothing about that. I hate when other people know so much more than me. Makes me feel dumb. Got some learning to do!

I’m not really focusing on the models run to run though. I just try to look at all the model runs throughout the entire day (CMC, Euro, GFS, GEFS, EPS) and kinda average them all out. I also look at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. I just haven’t seen anything on a consistent basis that gets me excited for anything. It’s hard for me to believe something and buy into it till I start seeing it cuz to me all that is is just talk. It seems like we’ve been talking about this for weeks already and it keeps getting pushed back. You’d figure by now it would start to show up on the CPC outlooks and see hints of it on the models. How much longer do we have to wait till it starts showing up in their outlooks and on the models? I’ve bought into this talk before and been burned so I have my guard up. That’s just how I defend myself from getting upset if it doesn’t happen.

The teleconnections are all lining up (-AO, -NAO, -EPO, trending towards a neutral PNA). So why aren’t we seeing anything on the models yet? Well the only thing I can see is because there’s not enough ridging over eastern Alaska and NW Canada.
Most cold blasts have occurred in negative EPO. What I am saying is that negative EPO is not the only factor. NAO, AO, and PNA are also a factor.

20th Century Reanalysis Daily Composites
https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/compo ... .day.v2.pl

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO)
https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/m ... resent.txt

Some cold blasts have occurred where EPO was positive. December 1963, January 1964, and January 1985.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Good snow depth in the plains and east central Midwest, block south east of Greenland, neutral ENSO and a severe -AO would deliver the cold goods to us.

Wouldn’t need a negative EPO for that but you couldn’t have a raging positive EPO.

When you think about it, sub freezing cold down here during the daylight hours is like threading a needle.
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Cpv17
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Ptarmigan wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 5:05 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 8:59 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:43 pm

I have seen cold blasts where EPO was positive, while NAO and AO are negative. Or vice versa where EPO was negative and NAO and AO are negative. Same goes with PNA. The warm pool off the coast of Alaska favors negative EPO.
I have never heard of a cold blast coming from a positive EPO in my life. I don’t even see really how that’s scientifically possible. Guess this goes to show you I’m still very much a novice when it comes to the weather lol.

I’ve also never heard of AAM or the cryosphere :lol:

I know nothing about that. I hate when other people know so much more than me. Makes me feel dumb. Got some learning to do!

I’m not really focusing on the models run to run though. I just try to look at all the model runs throughout the entire day (CMC, Euro, GFS, GEFS, EPS) and kinda average them all out. I also look at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. I just haven’t seen anything on a consistent basis that gets me excited for anything. It’s hard for me to believe something and buy into it till I start seeing it cuz to me all that is is just talk. It seems like we’ve been talking about this for weeks already and it keeps getting pushed back. You’d figure by now it would start to show up on the CPC outlooks and see hints of it on the models. How much longer do we have to wait till it starts showing up in their outlooks and on the models? I’ve bought into this talk before and been burned so I have my guard up. That’s just how I defend myself from getting upset if it doesn’t happen.

The teleconnections are all lining up (-AO, -NAO, -EPO, trending towards a neutral PNA). So why aren’t we seeing anything on the models yet? Well the only thing I can see is because there’s not enough ridging over eastern Alaska and NW Canada.
Most cold blasts have occurred in negative EPO. What I am saying is that negative EPO is not the only factor. NAO, AO, and PNA are also a factor.

20th Century Reanalysis Daily Composites
https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/compo ... .day.v2.pl

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO)
https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/m ... resent.txt

Some cold blasts have occurred where EPO was positive. December 1963, January 1964, and January 1985.
I didn’t really start paying much attention to the weather till maybe 2010 so that’s well before my time lol

The EPO imo is the single most important factor in determining our winter weather. The ridging was positioned perfectly for the cold blast we had in November.
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 5:26 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 5:05 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 8:59 pm

I have never heard of a cold blast coming from a positive EPO in my life. I don’t even see really how that’s scientifically possible. Guess this goes to show you I’m still very much a novice when it comes to the weather lol.

I’ve also never heard of AAM or the cryosphere :lol:

I know nothing about that. I hate when other people know so much more than me. Makes me feel dumb. Got some learning to do!

I’m not really focusing on the models run to run though. I just try to look at all the model runs throughout the entire day (CMC, Euro, GFS, GEFS, EPS) and kinda average them all out. I also look at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. I just haven’t seen anything on a consistent basis that gets me excited for anything. It’s hard for me to believe something and buy into it till I start seeing it cuz to me all that is is just talk. It seems like we’ve been talking about this for weeks already and it keeps getting pushed back. You’d figure by now it would start to show up on the CPC outlooks and see hints of it on the models. How much longer do we have to wait till it starts showing up in their outlooks and on the models? I’ve bought into this talk before and been burned so I have my guard up. That’s just how I defend myself from getting upset if it doesn’t happen.

The teleconnections are all lining up (-AO, -NAO, -EPO, trending towards a neutral PNA). So why aren’t we seeing anything on the models yet? Well the only thing I can see is because there’s not enough ridging over eastern Alaska and NW Canada.
Most cold blasts have occurred in negative EPO. What I am saying is that negative EPO is not the only factor. NAO, AO, and PNA are also a factor.

20th Century Reanalysis Daily Composites
https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/compo ... .day.v2.pl

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO)
https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/m ... resent.txt

Some cold blasts have occurred where EPO was positive. December 1963, January 1964, and January 1985.
I didn’t really start paying much attention to the weather till maybe 2010 so that’s well before my time lol

The EPO imo is the single most important factor in determining our winter weather. The ridging was positioned perfectly for the cold blast we had in November.
There is no doubt that EPO is a big factor. I have seen freezes with negative EPO and positive NAO and AO.
Stratton20
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GFS looks awful for cold, the euro has been looking encouraging at least for some quick shots of cold and the CMC is just down right frigid, ensembles still look meh, i remain pretty skeptical about this big pattern change, confidence for me has gone down to 30-40%
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:21 am GFS looks awful for cold, the euro has been looking encouraging at least for some quick shots of cold and the CMC is just down right frigid, ensembles still look meh, i remain pretty skeptical about this big pattern change, confidence for me has gone down to 30-40%
I frankly could care less about a huge pattern change at this point. I just want seasonal highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, not 80s like the next 4 days.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:21 am GFS looks awful for cold, the euro has been looking encouraging at least for some quick shots of cold and the CMC is just down right frigid, ensembles still look meh, i remain pretty skeptical about this big pattern change, confidence for me has gone down to 30-40%
The people that matter are blending the Canadian and Euro.

GFS doing its normal warm bias and huge changes run to run.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I do love what the 12z GFS is trying to do from 300 hours on. It links up with Greenland and the storm northeast of Hawaii is pumping a fierce ridge into Alaska.

Maybe the GFS is finally caving.
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Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:04 pm I do love what the 12z GFS is trying to do from 300 hours on. It links up with Greenland and the storm northeast of Hawaii is pumping a fierce ridge into Alaska.

Maybe the GFS is finally caving.
Yeah I’ve noticed that there’s been a sizable difference between the Euro and GFS in the medium to long range past few days.
Stratton20
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Didnt the GFS just get a new upgrade as well? Regardless it does maybe appear the GFS may slowly be caving in, euro looks good as well, cold air building up in western canada
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:18 pm Didnt the GFS just get a new upgrade as well? Regardless it does maybe appear the GFS may slowly be caving in, euro looks good as well, cold air building up in western canada
It seems like the GFS gets a new upgrade every year.
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sambucol
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:08 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:04 pm I do love what the 12z GFS is trying to do from 300 hours on. It links up with Greenland and the storm northeast of Hawaii is pumping a fierce ridge into Alaska.

Maybe the GFS is finally caving.
If that means cold for SETX, I’m all for it.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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sambucol wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:39 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:08 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:04 pm I do love what the 12z GFS is trying to do from 300 hours on. It links up with Greenland and the storm northeast of Hawaii is pumping a fierce ridge into Alaska.

Maybe the GFS is finally caving.
If that means cold for SETX, I’m all for it.
Its definitely below normal past mid month. Highs in the 40s and lows near freezing for my area with another front coming down at the end of the run.
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