December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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sambucol
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Sounds wonderful to me
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snowman65
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Been outside lately? BBRRR...LOL
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Stratton20
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12z EPS is encouraging , starting to spill the cold air further south now. in the medium range, compared to keeping it locked up in Canada or the Northern US
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I'm telling you... models will catch up (Euro and Canadian are already there, but I think the Euro will adjust a little colder).

Look at the recipe out there. It's all there for a below average last 15 days of the month.

I'm sure GFS will be schizo until late week this week. It will go from warmest to coldest and back again.


I'd lock in the Canadian right now, if I could.
Team #NeverSummer
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Euro ENS is setting us up for a very cold Christmas week at the end of the run.

For once the cold timing should work out for us around the holidays.
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Stratton20
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gfs is definitely starting to cave
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sambucol
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Fantastic! What do the temps look like for SETX in general Christmas week?
txbear
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Sad state of affairs that we’re hoping and begging for a cool down…to anything below 70 in December. Meanwhile the rest of the state is at least generally in the upper 50s to low 60s at this 6:00 hour. What a crock.

Shorts and sweat to do yard work…this is for the birds.

MoCoWx, appreciate your piecing the puzzle together.
Cpv17
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sambucol wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:27 pm Fantastic! What do the temps look like for SETX in general Christmas week?
That’s way too far out to know.
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sambucol
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Cpv17, yes. I know. Just wondering what the models were showing temp wise that Montgomery was talking about.
Cpv17
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sambucol wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:57 pm Cpv17, yes. I know. Just wondering what the models were showing temp wise that Montgomery was talking about.
As of right now I would say with about 60% confidence that temps will be below average. How far below is anyone’s guess.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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sambucol wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:57 pm Cpv17, yes. I know. Just wondering what the models were showing temp wise that Montgomery was talking about.
From 240 hours onward (on the GFS) we are average to 15-20 below (during the day) and 10 below at night.

It’s impossible to project how cold Christmas week will end up.
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Cpv17
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18z GFS looks much better now at the 500mb level beginning in about 9-10 days.

The 18z GEFS still doesn’t look that great but it did improve from 12z.

The 12z EPS looks pretty good but could still improve.
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DoctorMu
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This would be nice in 10 days.

Image
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I’ll allow it ;)
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Stratton20
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You love to see that bright purple! I need an excuse to break oit the hot chocolate again
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:18 pm You love to see that bright purple! I need an excuse to break oit the hot chocolate again
I prefer the pinkish white colors ;)

Magenta is a beautiful color! Lol
Stratton20
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00z Euro is amazing!
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 1:13 am 00z Euro is amazing!
0z EPS is looking pretty good too. Definitely better than the GEFS.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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12z Euro goes colder than 0z and unloads right down the middle of the country to us.

If the long range Euro were to verify, we would be (potentially) looking at THREE successive waves of colder and colder air. As of right now, the week before Christmas through New Years looks mighty delicious for cold weather lovers.

Hold on to your rears, because I'm sure this is going flip flop and spit out some clown maps here and there until it gets a good hold of it.
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