December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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That run of the GFS is from 2 nights ago, but I definitely cant rule out an extreme scenario like that, the teleconnections support that kind of cold air getting dumped down here
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:11 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:04 pm Sambucol it is 10-12 days out so impossible to say right now, but this upcoming pattern screams wintry mischief somewhere in the state, definitely cannot rule out some of that coming into SE Texas, but confidence is pretty low with that right now
Something I need to note here for the youngsters who just discovered their weather fanaticism….

Before the last decade, SETX may get a couple to few winter weather events a decade (meaning precip). This past decade has been highly unusual in terms of the frequency of events, even if light.

I’m probably going to miss some years but I know 2011, 2013 (several), 2014 (multiple), 2017, 2018, 2021 (two) had events and I think that has spoiled some youngsters. Yes, I know I’m 40 and not that old, but I’ve followed weather since the late 80s and used to invite East Texas Weather personalities to my classes for class presentations and projects. The 90s and 2000s were not like the last decade.

Thankful we have fun weather to talk about this time of year. I know I’m not active outside of Winter unless a Hurricane or major severe outbreak is coming, but that doesn’t mean I don’t read.

Thank you for all the contributions!
I don't think we're going back to the 90s or early 00s. You never know, but I think this is the new normal. With Arctic circle ice thinning the polar vortex is more likely to be detached and Siberia winters can be even more brutal, meaning a greater chance of jailbreaks. There were will be a lot of variance from year to year and within a season. We could be indeed due for a icy/wintry blast this winter...then more of the subtropical stuff.

I should mention that the 2004 Christmas Eve snow miracle (my avatar), is the one that kicked off the current paradigm.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:05 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:03 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:03 pm


Sent you one back, and I’ll still be around. Like I said in my PM, we will be in Texas during the school year until 2030. Summers WILL NOT be here :)
Say hey to the Duttons for us.
Haha, we will be in Gallatin county too. The Gallatin Gateway is so awesome. Light Snowy drives are amazing there.
I was checking out the Big Sky area, halfway between West Yellowstone and Bozeman. Yeah, it would suck mightily to live there in the summer among the lakes and mountains. :lol:

We'll have you and srain post more idyllic pics when we're melting like butter in 100°F heat.
Stratton20
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Man the GFS is so frustrating
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:29 pm Man the GFS is so frustrating
You’re 10 days out. Take a deep breath. It delivers the first two shots of cold air and it steps down.

With that said, it’s going to do this. You know this, and the other models probably will too. Won’t know a ton until Wednesday.
Team #NeverSummer
Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:32 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:29 pm Man the GFS is so frustrating
You’re 10 days out. Take a deep breath. It delivers the first two shots of cold air and it steps down.

With that said, it’s going to do this. You know this, and the other models probably will too. Won’t know a ton until Wednesday.
Yeah the operationals are useless past 4-5 days imo. That’s why I just stick to the ensembles.
davidiowx
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:32 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:29 pm Man the GFS is so frustrating
You’re 10 days out. Take a deep breath. It delivers the first two shots of cold air and it steps down.

With that said, it’s going to do this. You know this, and the other models probably will too. Won’t know a ton until Wednesday.
It’s 26 degrees in Dodge City, Kansas. The cold a comin’ is just beginning.
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DoctorMu
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davidiowx wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:50 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:32 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:29 pm Man the GFS is so frustrating
You’re 10 days out. Take a deep breath. It delivers the first two shots of cold air and it steps down.

With that said, it’s going to do this. You know this, and the other models probably will too. Won’t know a ton until Wednesday.
It’s 26 degrees in Dodge City, Kansas. The cold a comin’ is just beginning.

1°F at Bismarck. This is just the first wave.
brazoriatx
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We need some cold to kill these damn mosquitoes!
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tireman4
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Next week will be a rooler coaster ride of fun. It will be colder than it is now.
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