December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
Posts: 5289
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

We really need more members on this forum. This place is a snooze fest.
Cpv17
Posts: 5289
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Of course 57 is over on Storm2k not completely buying into the cold yet.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:35 pm Of course 57 is over on Storm2k not completely buying into the cold yet.
Not what he said. I’ve learned to decipher some of his schtick.

He referenced the coldest anomalies being a bit east of us. He kinda plays that game. He’s admitted a week or so back it’s going to be colder than normal to end this month.

If im 20 plus below normal and Mississippi is 35 plus, im cool with it.

I just don’t want to see 60s plus again until mid January after late next week, and there’s an okay chance at that if our AAM stays on the floor.
Team #NeverSummer
Cpv17
Posts: 5289
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:44 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:35 pm Of course 57 is over on Storm2k not completely buying into the cold yet.
Not what he said. I’ve learned to decipher some of his schtick.

He referenced the coldest anomalies being a bit east of us. He kinda plays that game. He’s admitted a week or so back it’s going to be colder than normal to end this month.

If im 20 plus below normal and Mississippi is 35 plus, im cool with it.

I just don’t want to see 60s plus again until mid January after late next week, and there’s an okay chance at that if our AAM stays on the floor.
This looks really good:

Image

Btw, the PNA is not forecasted to go much into positive territory so I think this will be centered more over the central part of the country and not mainly east of us. But we’ll see.
Stratton20
Posts: 4246
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Im 100% confident, the cold is coming, regardless of strength,the GFS ( still not as cold, but its trending colder) and GEFS are now in good agreement with the other models
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5674
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:47 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:44 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:35 pm Of course 57 is over on Storm2k not completely buying into the cold yet.
Not what he said. I’ve learned to decipher some of his schtick.

He referenced the coldest anomalies being a bit east of us. He kinda plays that game. He’s admitted a week or so back it’s going to be colder than normal to end this month.

If im 20 plus below normal and Mississippi is 35 plus, im cool with it.

I just don’t want to see 60s plus again until mid January after late next week, and there’s an okay chance at that if our AAM stays on the floor.


This looks really good:

Image

Btw, the PNA is not forecasted to go much into positive territory so I think this will be centered more over the central part of the country and not mainly east of us. But we’ll see.
Like this?

Image
Cromagnum
Posts: 2616
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

The cold better come and better stay. This 85 degree swamp bog weather is garbage. I shouldn't be running my AC and getting annihilated by mosquitoes.
Stratton20
Posts: 4246
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

18z GFS holy cow! I know its long range but it absolutely opens up the flood gates from the arctic, havent seen a run like that since februrary 2021 lol 3-4 straight days in the low 20’s for highs
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5674
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

WARNING: For entertainment purposes only.

On the GFS Fantasy channel...but we're just saying.

Image


Image

Complete with a Hwy 1*5 shout out.

Image
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5674
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Cromagnum wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:34 pm The cold better come and better stay. This 85 degree swamp bog weather is garbage. I shouldn't be running my AC and getting annihilated by mosquitoes.
I was arranging some color LED lights on the bushes a few minutes ago. Even with Cutter repellant the mosquitoes were feasting on me!
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5674
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:39 pm 18z GFS holy cow! I know its long range but it absolutely opens up the flood gates from the arctic, havent seen a run like that since februrary 2021 lol 3-4 straight days in the low 20’s for highs
Temps in the teens for a day and a half (Dec 22-23). :lol:
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:41 pm WARNING: For entertainment purposes only.

On the GFS Fantasy channel...but we're just saying.

Image


Image

Complete with a Hwy 1*5 shout out.

Image


LOCK IT IN!!!
Team #NeverSummer
Cpv17
Posts: 5289
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:41 pm WARNING: For entertainment purposes only.

On the GFS Fantasy channel...but we're just saying.

Image


Image

Complete with a Hwy 1*5 shout out.

Image
The potential is there for this to happen. All teleconnections and high latitude blocking are pointing towards it and have been for several days now.

Along with the ensembles. Mainly it was the Euro and Canadian ensembles but now the American ensembles (GEFS) has jumped onboard as well.
Stratton20
Posts: 4246
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Lol that 18z GFS run has exploded on the internet, funny how one run can do that haha, but the pieces are coming together, high latitude blocking, teleconnections lining up perfectly, its going to be an interesting next 7-10 days
Cpv17
Posts: 5289
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Travis Herzog just mentioned the possibility of an extended cold snap lasting the rest of the month on channel 13. This might start getting some buzz and traction here pretty soon.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

Lol, my phone started blowing up from clients who know my propensity to follow weather trends closely.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

Nm
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

I appreciate your explanations of what the models show, and explaining it all in a way everyone understands, Montgomery.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

Gotta dig into this but the Ural Ridge is showing up which sets the stage for the Stratospheric Polar Vortex to be attacked.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:39 pm Gotta dig into this but the Ural Ridge is showing up which sets the stage for the Stratospheric Polar Vortex to be attacked.
What does that mean regarding the Polar Vortex?
Post Reply
  • Information