December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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December 2022

Post by tireman4 » Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:44 pm

What shall we see? Cold? Frigid? Warm?

Cpv17
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Re: December 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:06 pm

From everything I’m seeing, it looks like December is lining up to be pretty cold.

Iceresistance
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Re: December 2022

Post by Iceresistance » Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:00 pm

Someone on WxTwitter has mentioned that the GEFS forecast with the MJO is eerily similar to December 1983

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Re: December 2022

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:08 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:00 pm
Someone on WxTwitter has mentioned that the GEFS forecast with the MJO is eerily similar to December 1983
Swoon.
Team #NeverSummer

Stratton20
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Re: December 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:10 pm

Saw that the MJO is expected to go to Phase 8? What does that mean for US in terms of winter?

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Re: December 2022

Post by Iceresistance » Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:29 pm

Okay, I'm now seriously concerned for December, this MJO forecast is eerily similar to 1983 and 1989!

1983, Green Line is November and the Blue line is December
Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/198310.phase.90days.gif
1989, same color code
Image
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/198910.phase.90days.gif
MJO forecast on 11/16/2022
Image
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Current-MJO-forecast.gif

Iceresistance
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Re: December 2022

Post by Iceresistance » Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:08 pm

The CFS is consistent with an active pattern for mid to late December.

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Re: December 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:30 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:08 pm
The CFS is consistent with an active pattern for mid to late December.
There’s a guy on YouTube that goes by the name Weatherman Plus that said he thinks mid to late December will be warm because the AO is forecasted to go positive. Don’t really know how much stock I put into that because I’ve heard it will be cold from just about everywhere else.

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Re: December 2022

Post by Iceresistance » Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:01 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:30 pm
Iceresistance wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:08 pm
The CFS is consistent with an active pattern for mid to late December.
There’s a guy on YouTube that goes by the name Weatherman Plus that said he thinks mid to late December will be warm because the AO is forecasted to go positive. Don’t really know how much stock I put into that because I’ve heard it will be cold from just about everywhere else.
What about POW on Ponder? Cold as usual?

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Re: December 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:04 pm

Cpv17 weatherman plus is a joke, ive seen this dude make videos on the GFS showing phantom hurricanes like 14 days out, he overhypes things alot, POW ponder on weather is much more reliable

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