December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Re: December 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:13 am

Cpv17 yep, right now models favor ridging setting up closer to the aleutians, still lots of time for it to change, not all ensemble members agree with this solution though

redneckweather
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Re: December 2022

Post by redneckweather » Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:08 am

GFS says what winter storm.🤷‍♂️

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jasons2k
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Re: December 2022

Post by jasons2k » Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:43 pm

The 7-day forecast for the first week of winter/December looks great if you like mild weather with an occasional chance of rain. Works for me. I’ll be outside a lot. Already thinking about what sounds good on grill or smoker….yum.

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: December 2022

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:13 pm

You’ll be paying for it in late week 2 through week 4 … enjoy it while you can. ;)
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Stratton20
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Re: December 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:15 pm

MontgomeryCoWx yep! Looks like a disruption of the polar vortex occurs by then, the cold is coming, these warm days are limited haha

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: December 2022

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:20 pm

Anyone debating whether December ends up above or below normal isn’t paying attention. My confidence in finishing below normal is very high.

The question is how severe our cold will be, and whether or not the Soutbern jet delivers more rain and/or fun (sleet/snow). I think we can feel a bit more confident Christmas will feel like Christmas. For me, in Texas, that’s mid 50s or colder for highs and 40 or lower for lows.

Our source region and snow depth in the plains states will be highly on the cold lovers side. Week 2-3 December would be the time to get a -EPO like we experienced in mid November.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: December 2022

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:48 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:43 pm
The 7-day forecast for the first week of winter/December looks great if you like mild weather with an occasional chance of rain. Works for me. I’ll be outside a lot. Already thinking about what sounds good on grill or smoker….yum.
On a side note, I love duck gumbo and have a lot of excess duck meat I need to freeze, but if you want it, it’s yours.
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user:null
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Re: December 2022

Post by user:null » Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:42 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 7:34 pm
Here is an old article about the 1980's freezes:
Yep. After last year, I don't think i have any use for any temperatures below 50°F, let alone such manner of freeze. Those back-to-back 80s events, while perhaps a novelty, would thoroughly be devastating to local agriculture, architectural, environmental, etc aspects unused to such intensity — thankfully, I was born late 90s (such that I missed out on all the cold in earlier years).

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Re: December 2022

Post by user:null » Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:42 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 11:37 am
Yes, the CPC is lazy these days with regards to seasonal outlooks. They take a textbook Nina map and just copy it.

I never pay attention to seasonal maps regardless of what they say. They are wrong more times than not.
I agree.

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: December 2022

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:48 pm

user:null wrote:
Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:42 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 7:34 pm
Here is an old article about the 1980's freezes:
Yep. After last year, I don't think i have any use for any temperatures below 50°F, let alone such manner of freeze. Those back-to-back 80s events, while perhaps a novelty, would thoroughly be devastating to local agriculture, architectural, environmental, etc aspects unused to such intensity — thankfully, I was born late 90s (such that I missed out on all the cold in earlier years).
I was 20 months old in 1983 event. I remember 1989 vividly and it is what sold me on Extreme Winter Weather. I was doing yard work with my Dad in Longview and it was 75 and starting to thunderstorm and a few hours later it was 25 with heavy sleet and snow.
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