I have never heard of a cold blast coming from a positive EPO in my life. I don’t even see really how that’s scientifically possible. Guess this goes to show you I’m still very much a novice when it comes to the weather lol.Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:43 pmI have seen cold blasts where EPO was positive, while NAO and AO are negative. Or vice versa where EPO was negative and NAO and AO are negative. Same goes with PNA. The warm pool off the coast of Alaska favors negative EPO.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:28 pm You’re missing the recipe completely and focusing on model to model run.
AAM collapsing, ridge bridging, warm pool in PAC, and no one is discussing the cryosphere and the Tongan explosion effects on our upper levels.
AAM is going to lock in long term ridges. With our AO and NAO in place, we don’t need a severe negative EPO… just a somewhat favorable one. PNA looks in our favor and even if it wasn’t we would still be below average with the above ingredients.
There’s a reason why some of the studs in the industry are confident.
I’ve also never heard of AAM or the cryosphere
I know nothing about that. I hate when other people know so much more than me. Makes me feel dumb. Got some learning to do!
I’m not really focusing on the models run to run though. I just try to look at all the model runs throughout the entire day (CMC, Euro, GFS, GEFS, EPS) and kinda average them all out. I also look at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. I just haven’t seen anything on a consistent basis that gets me excited for anything. It’s hard for me to believe something and buy into it till I start seeing it cuz to me all that is is just talk. It seems like we’ve been talking about this for weeks already and it keeps getting pushed back. You’d figure by now it would start to show up on the CPC outlooks and see hints of it on the models. How much longer do we have to wait till it starts showing up in their outlooks and on the models? I’ve bought into this talk before and been burned so I have my guard up. That’s just how I defend myself from getting upset if it doesn’t happen.
The teleconnections are all lining up (-AO, -NAO, -EPO, trending towards a neutral PNA). So why aren’t we seeing anything on the models yet? Well the only thing I can see is because there’s not enough ridging over eastern Alaska and NW Canada.