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You should see Larry Cosgrove's forecast

Some of the 12z GEFS members get interesting around the same time frame Larry is talking about, December could get interesting around here

Larry Cosgrove's Tweets

https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/statu ... gr%5Etweet

https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/statu ... gr%5Etweet

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:48 pm Larry Cosgrove's Tweets

https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/statu ... gr%5Etweet

https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/statu ... gr%5Etweet

I would like to see the ridging in the long range over the Aleutians move east towards the GOA/western Canada. Not liking what I’m seeing there. It’s not positioned in the right place.

I messaged Larry Cosgrove, and asked home what he thought the weather might be for our part of Texas for Dec 9 & 10. I am
part of an outdoor Christmas performance those 2 nights. He said he was leaning to cloudy, cold, and drizzly with frozen precipitation not being too far north, but it’s early to be specific.

sambucol wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 7:16 pm I messaged Larry Cosgrove, and asked home what he thought the weather might be for our part of Texas for Dec 9 & 10. I am
part of an outdoor Christmas performance those 2 nights. He said he was leaning to cloudy, cold, and drizzly with frozen precipitation not being too far north, but it’s early to be specific.

Well for now the models and the CPC are keeping the colder air in the northern half of the country but we’ll see how that holds up.

Right need the CPC is the most believable to me

snowman65 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:17 am Right need the CPC is the most believable to me

They’re kinda contradicting themselves right now though with their 8-14 day outlook to their 3-4 week outlook.

I unfortunately dont agree with the 8-14 day outlook, your not going to get any cold air down here with the SE ridge flexing its muscle, no chance at all, i expect it to trend back to warmer than normal unfortunately

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 24, 2022 10:52 am I unfortunately dont agree with the 8-14 day outlook, your not going to get any cold air down here with the SE ridge flexing its muscle, no chance at all, i expect it to trend back to warmer than normal unfortunately

It all depends on where the EPO ridging sets up. If it sets up in the same area it did with this last cold spell then we’ll have a much better chance but from what I saw yesterday it looks like the ridging wants to setup over the Aleutians which would favor a -PNA and promote a SE ridge.

Cpv17 yep, right now models favor ridging setting up closer to the aleutians, still lots of time for it to change, not all ensemble members agree with this solution though

GFS says what winter storm.

The 7-day forecast for the first week of winter/December looks great if you like mild weather with an occasional chance of rain. Works for me. I’ll be outside a lot. Already thinking about what sounds good on grill or smoker….yum.

You’ll be paying for it in late week 2 through week 4 … enjoy it while you can.

MontgomeryCoWx yep! Looks like a disruption of the polar vortex occurs by then, the cold is coming, these warm days are limited haha

Anyone debating whether December ends up above or below normal isn’t paying attention. My confidence in finishing below normal is very high.

The question is how severe our cold will be, and whether or not the Soutbern jet delivers more rain and/or fun (sleet/snow). I think we can feel a bit more confident Christmas will feel like Christmas. For me, in Texas, that’s mid 50s or colder for highs and 40 or lower for lows.

Our source region and snow depth in the plains states will be highly on the cold lovers side. Week 2-3 December would be the time to get a -EPO like we experienced in mid November.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:43 pm The 7-day forecast for the first week of winter/December looks great if you like mild weather with an occasional chance of rain. Works for me. I’ll be outside a lot. Already thinking about what sounds good on grill or smoker….yum.

On a side note, I love duck gumbo and have a lot of excess duck meat I need to freeze, but if you want it, it’s yours.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 7:34 pm Here is an old article about the 1980's freezes:

Yep. After last year, I don't think i have any use for any temperatures below 50°F, let alone such manner of freeze. Those back-to-back 80s events, while perhaps a novelty, would thoroughly be devastating to local agriculture, architectural, environmental, etc aspects unused to such intensity — thankfully, I was born late 90s (such that I missed out on all the cold in earlier years).

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 11:37 am Yes, the CPC is lazy these days with regards to seasonal outlooks. They take a textbook Nina map and just copy it.

I never pay attention to seasonal maps regardless of what they say. They are wrong more times than not.

I agree.

user:null wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:42 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 7:34 pm Here is an old article about the 1980's freezes:

Yep. After last year, I don't think i have any use for any temperatures below 50°F, let alone such manner of freeze. Those back-to-back 80s events, while perhaps a novelty, would thoroughly be devastating to local agriculture, architectural, environmental, etc aspects unused to such intensity — thankfully, I was born late 90s (such that I missed out on all the cold in earlier years).

I was 20 months old in 1983 event. I remember 1989 vividly and it is what sold me on Extreme Winter Weather. I was doing yard work with my Dad in Longview and it was 75 and starting to thunderstorm and a few hours later it was 25 with heavy sleet and snow.