More cold air on the way next week!?

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BiggieSmalls
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Bring on more cold!
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Portastorm
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(Long sigh) ... well, after two days of consistently showing a big winter storm for parts of central, west, and north Texas ... the freakin' 12z GFS run is much warmer and says a cold rain for most of us. I guess Wxman57 is right once again in that there is too much model variability to buy into one scenario for next week.

This is annoying!
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wxman57
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Portastorm wrote:(Long sigh) ... well, after two days of consistently showing a big winter storm for parts of central, west, and north Texas ... the freakin' 12z GFS run is much warmer and says a cold rain for most of us. I guess Wxman57 is right once again in that there is too much model variability to buy into one scenario for next week.

This is annoying!
If there's too much model variability, then how can you determine that the current 12Z run is better than yesterday's or the day before? Latest is not always greatest with model guidance. Consistency and agreement between models is the key to a higher confidence forecast.
Puzzled1
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Cant wait to get this cold out of the way and finally have warmth and sun! It's funny tho beause the trees in my front yard are actually blooming in this weather!
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Portastorm
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wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:(Long sigh) ... well, after two days of consistently showing a big winter storm for parts of central, west, and north Texas ... the freakin' 12z GFS run is much warmer and says a cold rain for most of us. I guess Wxman57 is right once again in that there is too much model variability to buy into one scenario for next week.

This is annoying!
If there's too much model variability, then how can you determine that the current 12Z run is better than yesterday's or the day before? Latest is not always greatest with model guidance. Consistency and agreement between models is the key to a higher confidence forecast.
Yeah, good point. I need to remember that. Latest isn't necessarily the greatest when it comes to the models.
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wxman57
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Some new 12z Meteograms from the GFS. 12Z GFS is MUCH warmer for around Valentine's day than previous runs. Previously, it had most precip falling with the temp below 35. Now it has most precip falling with the temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

High-Res out to 180hrs:
Image

Extended 180hrs to 384hrs:
Image
harpman
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Wow, that's quite a dramatic change! How would you explain smething that drastic?? The models still have no clue?
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wxman57
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harpman wrote:Wow, that's quite a dramatic change! How would you explain smething that drastic?? The models still have no clue?
My coworker was pointing out that the 12Z GFS appears to not be handling the western U.S. trof correctly late next week. It's way different from the latest Euro now. I'd tend to disregard this 12Z GFS run.

Long-range ensemble forecasts are predicting that temps from Texas to the Mid Atlantic may be 12-15 degrees below normal from the 12th-18th of February.
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great new forum. registering again made me realize 2 things though i have lost my memory could not remember password and i need glasses with that confirmation letters, anyway i was randy77705.
that is huge change of runs but the last few runs imo were way too cold i mean highs in the 30s for a few days with rain no THANKS
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C2G
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Well, at least David Paul keeps a chance for some frozen precip next week.
But until wxman57 jumps on board it's just hog wash.
You look pretty snazzy in that bike pic wxman, BTW. :shock:
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wxman57 wrote:
harpman wrote:Wow, that's quite a dramatic change! How would you explain smething that drastic?? The models still have no clue?
My coworker was pointing out that the 12Z GFS appears to not be handling the western U.S. trof correctly late next week. It's way different from the latest Euro now. I'd tend to disregard this 12Z GFS run.

Long-range ensemble forecasts are predicting that temps from Texas to the Mid Atlantic may be 12-15 degrees below normal from the 12th-18th of February.

Thank you for the insight, wxman. This is obviously good news for those of us hoping for some interesting weather around here late next week.
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Portastorm
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The 12z Euro says "12z GFS ... you nuts!" ... blasts cold air down the Southern Plains into Texas by Tuesday.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
Baseballdude2915
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Todays rain is almost out of here, about time. Anyone get any decent amounts overnight?

Drying out over the weekend will be nice, i wonder if next week will give us some excitement, its been quite a while since we had something other than boring cold Seattle weather..
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don
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Portastorm wrote:The 12z Euro says "12z GFS ... you nuts!" ... blasts cold air down the Southern Plains into Texas by Tuesday.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
The only problem is what happened to the strong trough too the west?......Dont like the latest 12z model trends,but at the same time its only one run so far...
biggerbyte
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wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:(Long sigh) ... well, after two days of consistently showing a big winter storm for parts of central, west, and north Texas ... the freakin' 12z GFS run is much warmer and says a cold rain for most of us. I guess Wxman57 is right once again in that there is too much model variability to buy into one scenario for next week.

This is annoying!
If there's too much model variability, then how can you determine that the current 12Z run is better than yesterday's or the day before? Latest is not always greatest with model guidance. Consistency and agreement between models is the key to a higher confidence forecast.

Exactly.. If we are to follow model guidance there must be some sort of trend before one can have any hope at all for accuracy. You hit the nail right on the head with the point about fluctuations and non agreement. At this point, the forecast for cold and frozen precip. is up for debate. I would caution everyone to give it until next Tuesday before you hang your hat on any forecast related to this event.
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HPC Final Extended Disco...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
124 PM EST THU FEB 04 2010

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 07 2010 - 12Z THU FEB 11 2010

AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY AS IT DEPICTS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER WRN
NOAM AND AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF EXTENDING FROM SERN CANADA INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. WITHIN THIS CONFIGURATION THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES SHOW THE GREATEST SPREAD WITH FLOW FROM THE NRN HALF
OF THE PLAINS EWD... WITH A FURTHER COMPLICATION BEING THE EXTENT
TO WHICH THIS FLOW INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY REACHING THE
SWRN CONUS BY THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. OVER AT LEAST
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
INDICATING THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS
VALLEY REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIOR ENSEMBLES HAD BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY DIVERSE TO YIELD ONLY MODERATELY WEAK ELONGATED
TROFFING IN THEIR MEANS BUT 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL AVERAGE FROM THE PAST 1-2
DAYS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLES EXPECTS THIS FEATURE TO
TRACK EWD WITH TIME... REACHING THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST AROUND
WED-THU. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE CORE OF POSITIVE HGT
ANOMALIES FCST TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND THE DAVIS
STRAIT SUGGEST FLOW WITHIN THE MEAN TROF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
PROGRESSIVE. THIS RELATIONSHIP SUPPORTS THE FASTER TREND IN
OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS OVER THE PAST DAY AND RECOMMENDS LEANING
AWAY FROM THE SLOWER SOLNS OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD SUCH AS THE 00Z
CANADIAN. BETTER CONTINUITY AND CONSENSUS ARE DESIRED BEFORE
LATCHING ONTO THE DEEP SFC LOWS WHICH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP
OFF THE EAST COAST BY DAY 7 THU... THOUGH AT LEAST SOME RESIDUAL
SFC TROFFING IS REASONABLE. MEANWHILE GIVEN THE TIME FRAME
INVOLVED THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS DISPLAY BETTER THAN AVERAGE
AGREEMENT WITH A COMPACT ERN PAC SYSTEM FCST TO BRUSH CA BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ECMWF RUNS HAVE TRENDED EWD WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST DAY BUT THE 00Z GEFS MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE
MID LVL ENERGY MAY STILL BE PULLED A LITTLE FARTHER SWD THAN THE
GFS/CMC.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE 00Z GFS SHOWS MORE SWWD ELONGATION OF NRN
PLAINS/ROCKIES FLOW THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE... FAVORING A BLEND
OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GEFS MEAN DAYS 3-5 SUN-TUE TO REPRESENT CONSENSUS
AND ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUED DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE CONUS AS
WELL AS THE ERN PAC. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME QUESTIONABLY
DEEP WITH THEIR UPR LOWS CROSSING THE EAST COAST BY DAYS 6-7
WED-THU... SO THE ECMWF/GEFS MEAN BLEND LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GEFS
MEAN FOR THAT PART OF THE FCST.

...UPDATED PRELIMS...
AGAIN TODAY USING GFS/ECMWF ENS MEANS RESOLVES DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AND GIVES A SIMPLIFIED SOLUTION THRU THE PERIOD. 00Z GFS/ECMWF ENS
MEANS USED DAYS 3-5 WITH MORE INCORPORATION OF THE 06Z RUN OF GFS
AND ITS ENS MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7. NO CHANGES TO AFTN FINALS.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE US EAST OF THE ROCKIES SUN TO MID
WEEK WHILE A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE INDUCES A SRN PLAINS/INTERIOR
GULF COAST LOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL OF A REFORMING
MILLER TYPE B SYSTEM EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST MID WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER TO THE MS VALLEY AND EWD TOWARDS THE MID
ATLC REGION/NORTHEAST WED.
POLAR VORTEX DROP BY MEANS AND OP
MODELS BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL COLD SURGE INTO ERN CONUS LATE WEEK.
MEAN WRN CONUS TROF KEEPS PAC SYSTEMS DROPPING SWD JUST OFFSHORE
CA COAST THIS PERIOD
.


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TxLady
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This dreary, damp, cool weather is for the birds. If I wanted to live in Seattle or Portland, I would move there. Bring on some cold or sunshine or anything but this... :|
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snowman65
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I know what you mean. If this pattern keeps up, I think Edward Cullin and his family are moving in.........lol
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kayci
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Baseballdude2915 wrote:
don wrote:Yep GFS shows a ice storm for us folks in southeast texas with snow further off to the north and west in central Texas of course its to far off to be speculating on precip types,but it is hard to ignore the consistency of the GFS and also how the event keeps pushing upward in time instead of backwards like we see alot with the models when they show an fantasy storm that ends up not verifying.For what its worth...
Interesting to say the least. Still a LONG time for our possible Pre-Valentines ice storm..



Is it summer yet?

*ugh* no more cold please....... :cry:
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