More cold air on the way next week!?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Paul
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I will be glad when we get out of this pattern. I cant recall the last time I saw the sun. Heres hoping the 06z trends warmer as well....
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C2G
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One last old man winter event.........then let spring start in earnest.
While this winter hasn't been earth shattering, unless, of course, you keep tabs on deviations from norms plus or minus a few degrees, it's been absolutely miserably cold.
I miss the fun in the sun.
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Mr. T
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I noticed some rather gusty winds earlier outside (gusts approaching 40 mph at IAH) as this current batch of rain began to push away. The NWS has issued a special weather statement regarding this tight pressure gradient and quick burst of blustery winds across the area:

500 AM CST THU FEB 4 2010

...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS...

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG EAST WINDS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH VERY LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL TREE BRANCHES TO BE BROKEN...AND
UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
OR NON-CONVERTABLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.


It was rather noisy outside for a little bit there, but things have calmed down here...
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Mr. T
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Man, it is so good to see forecaster #31 at HGX back for the morning discussions. No offense to the other fine forecasters at HGX, but I think he/she writes the most thorough and detailed discussions out of all the forecasters at HGX. It is pretty boring when the forecaster on duty only types out a small paragraph or a few sentences. Of course, I know it isn't their job title to write pretty discussions, but, you know...

DISCUSSION...
-RA...WITH POCKETS OF MORE MODERATE RA...ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO BE BEHIND US...BUT RECENT
MODELING HAS DONE A POOR JOB AT THE LOCATION OF THE COASTAL SURFACE
LOW/TROF. YESTERDAY`S RUNS HAD EITHER A SURFACE LOW OR ELONGATED
TROF WELL UP THE COASTLINE AT THIS TIME...CURRENT POSITION IS WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE VALLEY. HENCE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST
WITH THE RECENT SOLUTION(S) OF TAKING THE LOW (AN ASSOCIATED
ENERGY OF LL JET) FURTHER OFFSHORE....TAKING A NORTHEAST TREK
TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH A LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
ENTRY INTO THOSE PARISHES. PARING OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS ONLY EXPECTING CONTINUED LIGHT TO (ISO)
MODERATE PERIODS OF RAIN...HIGHER QPF CLOSER TO THE COAST.

AN INTERESTING OVERNIGHT WIND PATTERN AS (WHAT SEEMS LIKE) A SMALL
MESO(MICRO)SCALE PUCKERING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM MATAGORDA
BAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO HOUSTON METRO HAS INCREASED WINDS TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A SHORT FUSE ADVISORY FOR
SW`ERN COUNTIES EARLIER IN SHIFT. ATTM...THIS FEATURE WAY TO SMALL
SCALE TO JUSTIFY BLANKETING ENTIRE CWA. EASTERLIES BACKING NORTHERLY
INTO TONIGHT WILL HAVE MOMENTS OF HIGHER GUSTS...IF NOTHING MORE
THAN FROM THE DESCENT OF RAIN-COOLED AIR CREATING THESE REGIONS OF
TIGHTER SMALLER SCALE T/P GRADIENTS.

UPPER TROF PASSAGE/NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS LATEST REGION OF
GULF TROFFING WILL AID IN INITIATING A MILD CAA PATTERN...FRONTAL
INVERSION TRAPPING ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDER SUB-85H LAYER TO CREATE A
CLOUDY AND COOL FRIDAY AND WEEKEND. CLIMATE NORMS IN THE MORNING
WILL SLUGGISHLY WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 50S. DRY ALBEIT COOLER BY
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM EARLY FEB MAX TEMP STANDARDS. REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL BE
THE IMPETUS TO THE DELAY OF MILDER GULF RETURN FLOW. EASTERLIES
SUNDAY PM FINALLY SWING AROUND TO ONSHORE MONDAY AS HIGH BUILDS OVER
EASTERN SEABOARD AND PRESSURES DROP OVER WESTERN TEXAS.

A VERY BROAD 5H CENTRAL PLAINS TROF WILL PASS OVER TUESDAY...AHEAD
OF IT...THE NEXT COLD FROPA EARLY TUESDAY. ENOUGH TH-E 295K SFC
SW`ERN UPGLIDE OF NEAR-1.2" PWAT AIR OVER A RELATIVELY COOL DOME
TO KICK IN A DECENT CHANCE POPS (-SHRA) MONDAY. NORTHERLIES BEHIND
THIS MORE TRADITIONAL FROPA TO DRIVE IN A COLDER AIR MASS GOING
INTO MID-WEEK. RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY ON HOW COLD...BUT HAVE
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST MID-30 F SUNRISE TEMPS NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LARGER MID-WEEK STORY WILL BE IN THE DAILY MAX
TEMPS...THICKER CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLIES EQUATE TO INTERIOR HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE AVERAGE MID 40S. 31


No mention of anything wintry for now...
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Portastorm
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The 0z GFS is certainly on board for a major winter storm next week for portions of central, west, and north Texas. The Canadian also in agreement. The trusty Euro is a little less eager with the event and that is bothersome to this poster who believes the Euro is usually money in the bank.

In their morning AFD, the Austin/San Antonio NWFSO references next week by writing:

THE NEXT BIG CHANGE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
GFS IS SHOWING WINTER PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT IS AWFULLY
EARLY. NOT READY TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST. KEEP WATCHING THIS
SPACE FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
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don
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I know it doesn't really matter being this far out from the possible event but I was wondering why the GFS has such a large difference in 2m temps at hooks and IAH.At Hooks it has temperatures hovering around freezing with plenty of precip,while at IAH it has temps in the mid to upper 30's..?

Hook: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDWH

IAH: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KIAH
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snowman65
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I just regisitered on the the forum. It was VERY easy. I don't understand all the remarks about the confirmation code being hard to read. The letters were almost 1/2" tall on my screen. How can you not read that????? I hope these aren't the same people trying to read the forecast maps and telling us what the future holds....LOLOL.....no wonder they are always BUSTING..LOL :lol:
Last edited by snowman65 on Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
brazoria_county22
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I agree, I didnt have ne problems with the conformation code either. They were actually pretty big letters :shock:
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snowman65
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don wrote:18z looks nice

Image

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Can someone please explain what the dark blue and red lines represent on these maps?? Thanks
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updraft
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Paul wrote:I will be glad when we get out of this pattern. I cant recall the last time I saw the sun. Heres hoping the 06z trends warmer as well....
______________________________________________________________________________________

I'm with you on that - I actually thought I saw mold on my arms yesterday. But one more freeze might not be too bad - kill the remaining straggling-blood-sucking-pesky-mosquito's! Also, my lawn mower will get an extended vacation. :)
"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." - The late/great George Carlin
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