January 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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What shall the New Year bring?
CrashTestDummy
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Hopefully warmer weather!!!
Gene Beaird,
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Cpv17
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CrashTestDummy wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:29 pm Hopefully warmer weather!!!
It will be to start the month but mid to late month may turn cold again.
Stratton20
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First 10-12 days will be warm but then. the bottom falls out 2nd half of the month
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:53 pm First 10-12 days will be warm but then. the bottom falls out 2nd half of the month
Yeah I’m already seeing signs of ridging starting to show up as we head into the second or third week of January. Might be able to repeat the -AO, -NAO, and -EPO all over again.
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DoctorMu
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Replay of December, but not quite as warm early.
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srainhoutx
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:58 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:53 pm First 10-12 days will be warm but then. the bottom falls out 2nd half of the month
Yeah I’m already seeing signs of ridging starting to show up as we head into the second or third week of January. Might be able to repeat the -AO, -NAO, and -EPO all over again.
We may not have to wait that long. From what I am seeing the relaxation ends early in the second week of January. Also be careful of anyone that says a "torch" is coming. That is simply not true. Certainly temperatures will moderate, but my hunch is that it's nothing more than typical averages for the time of year. Winter is no where near over!
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Cpv17
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:33 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:58 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:53 pm First 10-12 days will be warm but then. the bottom falls out 2nd half of the month
Yeah I’m already seeing signs of ridging starting to show up as we head into the second or third week of January. Might be able to repeat the -AO, -NAO, and -EPO all over again.
We may not have to wait that long. From what I am seeing the relaxation ends early in the second week of January. Also be careful of anyone that says a "torch" is coming. That is simply not true. Certainly temperatures will moderate, but my hunch is that it's nothing more than typical averages for the time of year. Winter is no where near over!
Sounds good to me. I’m already looking for the next cold blast to start tracking.
CrashTestDummy
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 23, 2022 10:45 am
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:33 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:58 pm

Yeah I’m already seeing signs of ridging starting to show up as we head into the second or third week of January. Might be able to repeat the -AO, -NAO, and -EPO all over again.
We may not have to wait that long. From what I am seeing the relaxation ends early in the second week of January. Also be careful of anyone that says a "torch" is coming. That is simply not true. Certainly temperatures will moderate, but my hunch is that it's nothing more than typical averages for the time of year. Winter is no where near over!
Sounds good to me. I’m already looking for the next cold blast to start tracking.
I'll be happy to watch it skate across the northern third of the US, giving those folks weather they're both used to, and expecting this time of year.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

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MontgomeryCoWx
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:33 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:58 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:53 pm First 10-12 days will be warm but then. the bottom falls out 2nd half of the month
Yeah I’m already seeing signs of ridging starting to show up as we head into the second or third week of January. Might be able to repeat the -AO, -NAO, and -EPO all over again.
We may not have to wait that long. From what I am seeing the relaxation ends early in the second week of January. Also be careful of anyone that says a "torch" is coming. That is simply not true. Certainly temperatures will moderate, but my hunch is that it's nothing more than typical averages for the time of year. Winter is no where near over!
Most casual weather watchers don't understand what a torch truly is.....

Torches are typically positive AO, super Nino/Nina type events. This "warm up" is only 5-8 above normal and transient. It's ocurring in an absent MJO cycle, with a -AO and following a large cold spell. It is not a torch.
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biggerbyte
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No torch, for this area anyway. Certainly warmer. It may not feel much like winter. Winter is progged to return pretty quickly. My family in Oklahoma got snow out of this event. Folks, seldom do we see an extended deep freeze in our area.
Stratton20
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Models are hinting at the polar vortex weakening mid january , i definitely expect a return to very cold weather after a brief 1-2 week warm up
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MontgomeryCoWx
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biggerbyte wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 12:52 pm No torch, for this area anyway. Certainly warmer. It may not feel much like winter. Winter is progged to return pretty quickly. My family in Oklahoma got snow out of this event. Folks, seldom do we see an extended deep freeze in our area.
Yeah, people forget it’s hard to stay cold down here.

Our average high is in the 60s in Winter.

My favorite Winters are classic Nino, qbo favorable winters.

Never gets much warmer than the 50s and several events in the 30s and 40s with precip present.
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Cpv17
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Monday afternoon might be interesting around here. Especially east of 45 and north of 10 as of right now.
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sambucol
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Pow Ponder on the Polar Vortex

https://youtu.be/udmD9PlOWUM
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DoctorMu
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sambucol wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 10:49 am Pow Ponder on the Polar Vortex

https://youtu.be/udmD9PlOWUM
Things will start to get real again about the 13th. 8-)

AP, NAO go negative, STJ active for a La Nina. Just sayin'
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sambucol
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Yes it is.
Stratton20
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A sign of things to come😄🤞
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Stratton20
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Happy 2023 everyone!! Heres to more exciting weather events down the road! Sounds like a war zone here haha
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DoctorMu
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Adios, 2022. Ola 2023. I hope we never see another summer like 2022!
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