January 2023

[TexasBreeze]

Davis Mills didn't want them to draft his potential replacement in the draft with first pick. The pick went to Lovies former team! All I can think of!
Cypress Creek near my place went up about 12 or so feet overnight. Nice little system for me.

[Cpv17]

Davis Mills didn't want them to draft his potential replacement in the draft with first pick. The pick went to Lovies former team! All I can think of!
Cypress Creek near my place went up about 12 or so feet overnight. Nice little system for me.

Me personally, this was Lovies way of flicking off the Texans organization because he knew he was about to get fired. Sure enough, didn’t take long. He gone! Can we get a new GM too? Caserio is clueless. Cal didn’t look too happy after the game.

[Houstonkid]

Davis Mills didn't want them to draft his potential replacement in the draft with first pick. The pick went to Lovies former team! All I can think of!
Cypress Creek near my place went up about 12 or so feet overnight. Nice little system for me.

Me personally, this was Lovies way of flicking off the Texans organization because he knew he was about to get fired. Sure enough, didn’t take long. He gone! Can we get a new GM too? Caserio is clueless. Cal didn’t look too happy after the game.

Truth. It was a big middle finger to the organization. Lovie was on his way out, he should have been instructed to sit the starters or he should have been removed with an interim put in place.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101214
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
614 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 402 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

After a foggy start to the morning...clearing skies and south winds
will help to warm temperatures this afternoon into the mid to upper
70s. No significant rain chances expected until perhaps late tonight
into early Weds morning along the coast as WAA-type showers develop
under the cap. We`ll also look for the return of fog and low clouds
tonight...maybe leaning more on low clouds than fog given the progs
of a slightly stronger SW/W flow (15-20kts) just above the surface.
Lows should range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

For tomorrow, slightly warmer than NBM/MOS daytime temperatures are
still on order given the forecasts of SW winds at the lower and mid
levels. Highs to range from the the upper 70s to around 80 for most
of the FA...mid 70s at the coast. The passage of a well-defined low
at the mid/upper levels across the Southern Plains will drag a cold
front through the state tomorrow night. While dynamics appear to be
a little better to the NE of our CWA as the boundary moves into the
area...the northern third of our FA (generally north of a line from
College Station to Livingston) has been included in a Marginal Risk
for strong/severe storms tomorrow night. See SPCs Day 2 Outlook for
more info. But, given the progs of limited (deeper) moisture across
SE TX and the possibility of the cap hanging on...did keep the POPs
in the 20-40% range with FROPA for now. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Cold front will be in the process of pushing off the coast early
Thursday morning with breezy nw-n winds in its wake. Mostly clear
skies with mid & upper level ridging to our west and temps closer to
seasonal norms will follow into Saturday. A warming trend will then
begin Sunday into early next week as ridging passes to the east and
onshore winds resume and increase. Low end rain chances return to
the fcst Sunday night & Monday, probably in the form of some
streamer showers, as a shortwave tracks northeastward across New
Mexico and across the Southern & Central Plains. Its associated sfc
trof/dryline moves into parts of the region bringing some drier air
& slightly cooler overnight lows Mon night across the northwest 2/3
of the CWA. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Widespread dense fog developed overnight across much of SE TX but
these LIFR/VLIFR conditions should be slowly improving during the
next few hours. VFR conditions are expected to be in place across
the region by 17-19Z. Progs of a slightly more elevated S/SW flow
at the lower levels (and just above the surface) should lean more
to lower CIGS than VIS for tonight. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Look for areas of fog in the bays and nearshore waters this morning.
Conditions will slowly improve during the mid to late morning hours.
Redevelopment is again anticipated tonight with a warm airmass
situated over the cooler nearshore waters. Otherwise, light to
moderate south to southwest winds will persist in advance of the
next cold front that is forecasted to push off the coast early
Thursday morning. Moderate northwest and north winds are expected in
its wake into Friday morning. Combo of caution/advsy flags look
likely. Onshore flow resumes on Saturday as high pressure moves off
to the east. Increasing wind/seas anticipated as the weekend
progresses and the pressure gradient tightens. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 59 79 52 / 0 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 75 61 80 57 / 0 10 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 70 63 74 59 / 0 20 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ164-
177>179-199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...41
MARINE...47

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I see my Aggie meteorology buddy from college is now writing our AFDs.

He’s ‘47’ for NWS Houston.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Gradual, uneven improvement across the area, but expecting to
reach high MVFR or IFR over the next 2-3 hours as fog and low
clouds dissipate and lift. Conditions will deteriorate again
tonight, though less certainty on precisely how (and how badly).
With winds looking to be a little stronger overnight, lean the
TAFs towards CIGs over VSBY restrictions. Though, if there are
periods where winds slack, some fog could creep in, and so
introduce some modest VSBY restrictions as well.

[Ptarmigan]

It this time of year when fog is common.

[Ptarmigan]

See a possible naked-eye comet at its closest to the sun on Thursday (Jan. 12)
https://www.space.com/comet-c2022-e3-zt ... an-12-2023

One can see Comet C/2022 E3 (ZTF).

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

With elevated SW/W winds (20-35kts) just above the surface prevail-
ing overnight, we indeed are seeing more low clouds than fog so far
this morning. Per the warmer drier flow, rain chances should remain
limited through the afternoon. Another warm day is on tap with high
temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 for most locations...mid
70s at the coast. More than a couple of records could be reached or
broken if this forecast does verify -

GLS 75 (2005,2017)
IAH 81 (1995)
HOU 80 (2005, 2017, 2018)
CLL 81 (1911, 1971)

The passage of a progressive/rather well-defined mid to upper low
across the Central Plains will help to drag a cold front into and
through the CWA tonight. Moisture will remain on the limited side
and with the cap in place, scattered POPs may be generous but not
going to argue too much with the 20-40% already in the grids. Any
activity with FROPA should clear the coast before sunrise. Cooler
and drier air filtering into the region on Thur will keep temper-
atures in the 60s during the day...with lows ranging from the mid
30s far north...upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere and the mid 40s
along the beaches. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

Not much change to the ongoing extended forecast. Seasonable temps
and mostly clear skies will prevail into Saturday. With surface high
& upper ridge passing to our east and llvl winds returning from
the Gulf, look for a warming/moistening trend heading into Sunday
& Monday. Shortwave is still progged to make its way newd across
the Southern/Central Plains toward the Great Lakes late Sunday &
Monday. Tail end of its associated surface trof/dryline will make
its way into the area as this occurs. 30-40kt llvl jet will be
transporting moisture inland in advance and expect that we`ll see
some scattered precip during the day Monday. This will more than
likely in the form of waa/streamer showers considering a favorable
capping environment in place. Behind this system, a deeper western
trof should be advancing toward the area toward midweek bringing
another chance of precip and cold front. Medium range solutions
are varying in regards to the timing & finer details at this point,
but late Wed looks to be a decent placeholder right now. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 535 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

Increased WAA at the lower levels have helped to prevent widespread
fog development across SE TX overnight and this morning. These mod-
erate and gusty SW winds should persist into the afternoon with VFR
conditions prevailing. The arrival and passage of a cold front late
tonight could bring scattered showers and lower CIGS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

Southwest to south winds will gradually increase today as will wave
heights. Will maintain the caution flags in the 20-60nm waters, but
this may need to be upgraded to an advisory this evening and
tonight. A cold front will push off the coast early Thursday
morning. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore winds are expected
in its wake and small craft advisories look like a pretty good bet
into Friday morning. High pressure moves off to the east on Saturday
and onshore flow will resume. Winds and seas will again be on an
upward climb later this weekend into early next week as the pressure
gradient tightens. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 52 62 37 / 10 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 58 68 40 / 10 30 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 61 69 45 / 10 30 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...41
MARINE...47

[davidiowx]

Bore Snore Weather

At least it isn't 90 degrees

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

Some MVFR cigs continue to linger across the area, though decks
will become scattered over the next few hours bringing a period of
VFR conditions that should persist into the early evening hours. Gusty
S/SSE winds will continue to persist as well, with gusts in excess
of 20 knots. A pattern shift will arrive overnight as a surface
cold front moves into the area. Ahead of the front`s arrival,
widespread MVFR/potentially IFR cigs will redevelop.
Additionally, the reemergence of marine fog is expected along the
immediate coast although the potential for dense fog will be
mitigated by the aforementioned gusty winds. As the front arrives,
a narrow band of weak SHRA will accompany its passage. Given
this, have only included VCSH wording for now. Gusty NW winds will
develop behind the front around sunrise and prevail throughout
the day tomorrow.

Cady

&&

[Stratton20]

The weathern pattern over NA is beginning to undergo significant changes and ai expect a reconfiguration of the jet stream to occur, this is reflected in the models

[Cromagnum]

The weathern pattern over NA is beginning to undergo significant changes and ai expect a reconfiguration of the jet stream to occur, this is reflected in the models

Do you mean for this winter, or in general?

[Stratton20]

Crogmagnum winter, the pacific jet pattern over california which has consistently funneled mild air across the US, well that pattern is finally starting to break down, and should be completely gone around 7-8 days from now, colder weather is going to be making a return in the next 10-14 days

[DoctorMu]

Crogmagnum winter, the pacific jet pattern over california which has consistently funneled mild air across the US, well that pattern is finally starting to break down, and should be completely gone around 7-8 days from now, colder weather is going to be making a return in the next 10-14 days

That relieves Cali of the atmospheric river/firehose that has been soaking and flooding the state.

Presumably, back to an amplified pattern.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu yep, those folks need a long break from the rain

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu yep, those folks need a long break from the rain

Weird for a La Nina winter, but La Nina winters do have a weird streak.

[Cpv17]

DoctorMu yep, those folks need a long break from the rain

Weird for a La Nina winter, but La Nina winters do have a weird streak.

The thing I like about La Niñas is they can offer up some extremes. Can’t really get that during a Niño.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

DoctorMu yep, those folks need a long break from the rain

Weird for a La Nina winter, but La Nina winters do have a weird streak.

The thing I like about La Niñas is they can offer up some extremes. Can’t really get that during a Niño.

Yeah but a good Nino season will give you lots of 20s for lows and 30s/40s for highs with lots of precip.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121224
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

The cold front moving through the CWA is managing to produce some
very isolated activity this morning...but still not expecting too
much more development over inland areas with FROPA until it moves
off the coast. In the wake of the front, high pressure building S
down the Plains will help to maintain dry, cool and quiet weather
through the end of the week (and likely into the weekend). Strong
gusty north winds today should prevail today with a Wind Advisory
already in place for our barrier islands for this afternoon.

Temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 60s (with
the highest temperatures likely occurring now). Lows tonight will
fall into the mid and upper 30s north of the Houston metro...near
40F for HTown proper and south...mid 40s at the beaches. For tom-
orrow, another cool day with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Tomorrow night, freezing temperatures will be possible in the far
northern counties...mid 30s elsewhere outside of the metro...into
the upper 30s and lower 40s in the metro area. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Though southeast winds will be resuming during the day, sunny
skies and seasonal temps are anticipated on Saturday with surface
& upper level ridging in the vicinity. Lee side pressures fall
going into Sunday, so in addition to increasing southerly winds
we`ll also see more cloud cover and warming temps as the day
progresses. Low level jet further ramps up Sunday night & Monday
and surface dewpoints climb into the 60s across much of the area
as a mid level trof tracks northeast across the Plains and
Midwest. Scattered waa/streamer shra will probably develop across
parts of the area on Monday, but capping should limit overall
significance & coverage. Model runs the past couple days showed a
dryline make it into portions of the CWA, but this morning`s
deterministic runs are less bullish with this scenario and mostly
keep it to our nw/w which seems reasonable considering diminishing
upper support/push. Bumped Monday night`s lows up across parts of
the region, but may need another bump up with any continued model
consistency.

The next storm system & western trof will be digging into the
Desert Southwest on Tuesday and into West Texas Wednesday. Expect
better rain chances across the region as it approaches during the
midweek time period. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Showers along and ahead of the cold front have moved off the coast
with ceilings lifting quickly in its wake. VFR conditions expected
through the rest of the day (and most likely the next few days)...
with strong north winds (15-25kts/G25-30kts) prevailing this after-
noon with the stronger winds/gusts along the coast. Wind speeds to
decrease by this evening. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

A cold front will be pushing off the coast this morning. Look for
moderate to strong north and northwest winds and building seas developing
in its wake. Gusts to near or slightly above gale force are
possible at times from late morning into the overnight hours
offshore. A small craft advisory is in effect for the bays and
Gulf waters. Winds and seas will begin subsiding Friday
afternoon. Onshore flow will resume on Saturday as surface high
pressure moves east of the area. Winds and seas should increase
Sunday morning into next week as the pressure gradient tightens
and SCA`s are again looking likely. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 37 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 40 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 46 59 47 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening
for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 8 AM CST this morning
for GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...41
MARINE...47