January 2023

[Stratton20]

Im liking what im starting to see in the 00z runs, some of the models are showing a trough diving down out in west texas per the CMC and ICON runs, not far from a winter storm like setup tbh, interesting next couple of weeks ahead

[don]

The 12Z GFS,EURO and CMC look pretty interesting with multiple troughs digging down and ejecting over the plains.Models are not showing anything really cold yet.And that's not necessarily a bad thing we just need temps to be cold enough.Anything too strong and we end up with another dry cold spell like in December.Still a long ways to go though before we have an idea on how things may play out though.

[Stratton20]

Don agreed, i expect plenty of changes in the model runs ahead, but this upper level pattern ahead looks amazing, definitely think our window for wintry precipitation chances is beginning to open

[brazoriatx]

I'll believe it when i start to see it fall from the sky..otherwise it's more hype and wishful thinking

[Cpv17]

The CPC finally shows us getting some above average QPF! About time. SOI is crashing. Great sign!

[Cpv17]

Two things I’m concerned about regarding any winter weather. One is the southeast ridge poking its head in here, which the models keep showing off and on. Two, the ridging is too far southwest of Alaska for any type of significant cold. Yeah it gets cold but nothing significant or even close to it (as of right now). Also, the southeast ridge might keep a lot of the cold air confined more towards central and west Texas. It looks like we could be stuck in between.

I think right now it’s still too early to say anything definitive but the models could definitely improve from what they’re currently showing. I’m not overly excited yet.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 also that SE ridge is a recipe for a nasty ice storm as well, lets keep that ridge away from us

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 also that SE ridge is a recipe for a nasty ice storm as well, lets keep that ridge away from us

Yeah that thing can go kick rocks.

[sambucol]

When is this system forecast to come on down here

[srainhoutx]

Thought I would share some pictures from our snow storm from Friday into this morning in the Smoky Mountains.

[Stratton20]

srainhoutx absolutely amazing pictures! Wish we all can wake up to some of that fun stuff down the road!

[don]

Cpv17 also that SE ridge is a recipe for a nasty ice storm as well, lets keep that ridge away from us

Yeah that thing can go kick rocks.

Ya'll do know that a SE ridge is usually needed to get big storms in the winter and Spring time in Texas right?Some of our biggest storms happen when a SE ridge is placed to the east of Texas. One of the main reasons why February 21 happened was due to the SE ridge allowing the cold air and storm track to cuttoff and travel straight down the plains. We DO want a SE ridge you just don't wont the ridge to be too strong or placed to far to the west.Its hard to get significant rainfall or winter weather in Texas without a SE ridge in place this time of year.Its "needle and thread" not too much but not too little also.
And also im not looking for any extreme cold I just wants temps in the upper 20s to mid 30's with precip LOL. Extreme cold also means "Dry" like we saw in December.

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 also that SE ridge is a recipe for a nasty ice storm as well, lets keep that ridge away from us

Yeah that thing can go kick rocks.

Ya'll do know that a SE ridge is usually needed to get big storms in the winter and Spring time in Texas right?Some of our biggest storms happen when a SE ridge is placed to the east of Texas. One of the main reasons why February 21 happened was due to the SE ridge allowing the cold air and storm track to cuttoff and travel straight down the plains. We DO want a SE ridge you just don't wont the ridge to be too strong or placed to far to the west.Its hard to get significant rainfall or winter weather in Texas without a SE ridge in place this time of year.Its "needle and thread" not too much but not too little also.
And also im not looking for any extreme cold I just wants temps in the upper 20s to mid 30's with precip LOL. Extreme cold also means "Dry" like we saw in December.

Ensembles show the SE ridge extending into Texas but it’s 300+ hours out. This is what I was referring to. It’s far out though so it could easily change.

[don]

Oh ok gotcha.

[don]

For right now i wouldn't expect any record breaking cold temps here or anywhere in the lower 48 for that matter.Looks to be seasonal to below average.(while saying that i do expect the models to trend colder than what they are showing now as they are likely underestimating the airmass as they often do,due to the shallow nature of the airmass.)The bigger story may be the trough setup with multiple shortwaves moving through the state with cold air possibly in place.What we would want locally is for one of the shortwaves to dig far enough south and bring enough cold air down with overrunning precip from the subtropical jet.Unlike December the overall setup is there for a winter storm,its just a question if any of these systems can tap into enough cold air to produce frozen precip?And we wont know that answer for a while.

A reference point for how cold it could get would be something like just last February 22.When a overrunning winter event setup across the state with temps in SE Texas staying in the 30s for a day or two.

[Iceresistance]

I may get multiple rounds of snow to end this month!

[kyzsl51]

I love lows in the mid 30s and highs in the 50s...
more of that would be awesome!

[Cpv17]

I’m not expecting much to come out of this. The ridging just isn’t in the right place for us to get real cold down here. It could always still change because it’s still a good ways out but right now it’s not really looking all that great. Hopefully we can get some rain soon. Been dry around here for the past month or two now.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 and we dont need extreme cold in place, just cold enough for something other than rain, as don mentioned, too much cold can be a bad thing, like december, pow ponder mentioned the possibility of a southern snow slider around the 24-25th in his latest video

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 and we dont need extreme cold in place, just cold enough for something other than rain, as don mentioned, too much cold can be a bad thing, like december, pow ponder mentioned the possibility of a southern snow slider around the 24-25th in his latest video

Yeah but I just don’t see it getting cold enough for anything at this time but hopefully I’m wrong.