January 2023

[snowman65]

S.E. Tx is in the "grasping for straws" period for winter weather. Time is running out.

[Stratton20]

snowman65 lol no, winter is coming back big time , and its going to be sticking around for a while

[Cromagnum]

Some rain in SE TX is okay, but I would really rather central and especially west Texas get a lot.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

S.E. Tx is in the "grasping for straws" period for winter weather. Time is running out.

I see the board eyore is back.

No one is grasping for straws. We have a perfect pattern setting up for sustainable cold and multiple chance of Winter Weather in Texas.

February WILL be our coldest Winter month as the stage is set for multiple events to step down over the next 10 days.

[tireman4]

Back to tomorrow...lol..

[tireman4]

More.....

[don]

Stay weather aware tomorrow.The HRRR is showing PDS soundings for the metro area and southwestern counties of SE Texas tomorrow.And also showing discreet supercells ahead of the squall line.

[tireman4]

This could be a bumpy ride

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yikes... that happened rather quickly. I wasn't expecting much severe output but it is looking more ominous.

[Stratton20]

Very unusual to see that high of a severe threat for coastal counties, usually its up north

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Very unusual to see that high of a severe threat for coastal counties, usually its up north

That was my thought as well. Weird dynamics with this one.

[Cromagnum]

Reed thinks it's gonna get pretty feisty around here tomorrow.

[TexasBreeze]

It is dynamic enought for non tc related high wind warnings to be put up to the east of here in Lake Charles and New Orleans areas!

[don]

There will be tropical storm like conditions tomorrow as the surface low really cranks up once it gets to SE Texas.(BTW the HRRR is showing non storm wind gust of over 50 mph tomorrow).I wonder if HGX is going to go with a high wind warning or just a wind advisory?As the winds here look just as strong as those areas to the east tomorrow.They do have a gale warning already for the coast.

[jasons2k]

Very unusual to see that high of a severe threat for coastal counties, usually its up north

That was my thought as well. Weird dynamics with this one.

It’s January. Systems dig deeper.

[jasons2k]

SCW just came out with an afternoon update, noting the increased tornado threat for tomorrow.

As a side-note, their mid-month prediction that some of y’all called nonsense is going pretty much exactly how they opined. The major cold is holding until February.

[don]

HGX afternoon discussion.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
329 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

Airmass modification will occur overnight into Tuesday in advance of
an approaching, potent upper level trough from the west. Gulf
moisture will rapidly return to the region in the late night and
early morning hours as a strong southeast/southerly flow develops
just above the surface. Look for some scattered shower development
across portions of the region heading into sunrise, followed by
additional coverage as the morning progresses Tuesday. Thunderstorms
will become mixed into the equation from mid morning onward.
Precipitation will eventually become consolidated into a nne-ssw
oriented line along the cold frontal zone and march wnw-to-ese
across the area in the noon-6pm timeframe.

Overall, fcst dynamics are not all that much different than what
have been advertised for days. There were some minor model trends
noted...but in this case what could be important.

Severe: Very high shear and helicity values still look to be present
considering the forecast column wind profile (~50kt @ 925mb upwards
to 80-90kt @ 500mb). What has been, and still could be, the limiting
factor is the instability and whether or not storms will be able to
become rooted at the surface. Many of the 12z models depict the 60+
dewpoints and fcst SBCAPEs >0 making it touch further inland than
previous runs. As such, concern is a bit higher for a narrow time
period for few strong/severe surface based storms to
materialize...esp closer to the Matagorda Bay area and our coastal
counties. Considering the profile in place, will need to monitor the
possibility of supercell(s) and a tornado risk. Again, this is
highly conditional based upon how instability parameters evolve, but
cannot ignore the low probability/high impact nature of things.
Otherwise, the main hazardous wx threat will be some strong winds
mixing to the surface both along convection along the front and also
fast moving moderate showers.

Heavy rain potential: PW`s will climb from the current <0.5" up to
1.4-1.7" by midday Tues. Large scale lift, warm/cold frontal
boundaries and diffluence aloft should lead to some efficient
rainfall. Look for average 1-2" accumulations with some localized
higher amounts to 3-4". HREF PMM`s tend to favor the corridor
roughly along a line from Columbus-Houston-Cleveland for the
embedded higher amounts. Localized street flooding and rises on area
watershed would be the primary risk.

This system should track eastward and out of the area by early
evening with cooler, drier, breezy conditions in its wake. Northern
parts of the CWA will probably see some wrap around cloud cover at
some point. 47

[Cromagnum]

What is the timing of the wind and tornado threat?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

SCW just came out with an afternoon update, noting the increased tornado threat for tomorrow.

As a side-note, their mid-month prediction that some of y’all called nonsense is going pretty much exactly how they opined. The major cold is holding until February.

I don’t recall anyone here predicting major cold in January. There were a few of us, me included, that said we’d flip the pattern and step down in late January when the models weren’t showing it due to a repeatable cycle with the help of a non constructive MJO.

What I did disagree with them on was their comment that we wouldn’t see freezing temps in January. I hit freezing this morning and will probably see 2-3 more before the end of the month.

Luckily for me, I leave for the mountains this week and will truly get to experience fun and true cold with this pattern.

Then I come back to anomalous cold here in February if Globals are correct.

[Cpv17]

It looks like I’m basically in the bullseye for tomorrow’s severe weather event.