I’ll make a deal with Mr Heat Miser to give us this. I’d bring my skis back and ski our farm if that happened. We have plenty of 20-25 degree hills on our land.
There's an area of hilly terrain that runs from east of Huntsville to Navasota, N of Brenham, then to south of Smithville, hopping over the Colorado. Between Columbus and Schulenburg.
We have Tower Point. You can see A&M from 6.5 miles away there.
don wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:46 pm
Now that's what you call a potent storm.If only we could get the storm to dig a little more so the surface reflection stays in the Gulf,and the cold core gets right over us.We can dream at least LOL.
That would be a severe weather outbreak right there.
Yep, today's models are continuing to trend further inland with the surface reflection.Bringing the triple point right over SE and E Texas on Tuesday.And also bringing the warm sector further inland.If the trend continues the discussion may need to turn more towards a severe weather event with all modes of severe weather possible.
Looks like severe weather could happen on Tuesday.
snowman65 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:21 am
Nothing Im looking at shows any winter weather around here on the 2nd/3rd timefrime, just some cold temps.. ??
Gotta have the cold first..worry about precip later
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 423 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023
Key Messages:
1. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe with tornadoes
and strong winds as the main risks. The greatest window for severe
weather will be in the afternoon hours. There is an Enhanced Risk
(level 3 of 5) of Severe Weather today.
2. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected ahead and along the
boundary, bringing a threat for minor flash flooding. There is a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall today.
3. Windy conditions are expected with gusts up to 45 mph possible. A
Wind Advisory is in effect through early this evening.
4. Gale conditions are expected over the Gulf waters and the Bays
with gusts up to 50 kts possible. A Gale Warning is in effect
through late tonight.
5. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect due to dangerous rip
currents and minor coastal flooding during high tide due to strong
onshore winds.
Stay weather aware and prepared. Know where the nearest shelter is
located and make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings
today.
JM
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 423 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023
The next weather maker is still on track to bring multiple hazards
across Southeast TX today. There were only minor forecast changes
compared to the previous package, with a slight increase in rainfall
amounts for areas generally east of the I-45 corridor.
Early this morning, widespread low to mid clouds and showers have
started to spread over the region from the southwest in
association to increasing WAA and low-level moisture ahead of the
main upper-trough. Currently, this potent upper-lvl low is
situated over the southern Plains/west TX and will move east-
northeast across TX intensifying under a diffluent flow aloft. As
the day progresses, additional shortwave energy ahead of the main
upper low will strengthen the system, likely associated with new
cyclogenesis at the sfc. This will result in increasing warm and
humid southerly winds over SETX, and therefore PWATs into the 1.5
to 1.7 in range. With that being said, scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected today with the best window
along the boundary in the afternoon. Now let`s talk about
hazards...
Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall: Rain and storm chances will
increase today, becoming likely/numerous in the afternoon. The
environment will be conducive for scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms. Afternoon mesoanalysis shows limited low-level
instability (around 5 C/km); however, most guidance keeps showing
increasing sfc dewpoints, along with areas of decent instability
with MUCAPE up to around 1700 J/kg, especially south of I-10. The
big question will be if a strong storm can develop and if it can
be rooted at/near the surface. Assuming storms do develop
ahead/along the frontal passage, deep layer shear as well as
strong 0-1km/0-3km helicity and 0-1km EHI would suggest the
potential for strong updrafts likely producing a tornado(s).
Again, the environment will be favorable for severe weather,
particularly in the afternoon with the peak of daytime heating,
but it will strongly depend on the destabilization of the
atmosphere. Strong to severe storms will be possible across most
of the region with the best potential south of I-10. As of right now,
the greatest risk looks to be from noon through 6PM. A line of
moderate to heavy rain is also expected with the FROPA. Rainfall
rates from 1-2 in/hr will be possible, leading to minor flooding,
especially in flood prone areas. Estimated rainfall totals of 1-3
inches are expected with isolated higher amounts possible.
Winds: A tightening pressure gradient is expected as the low
pressure develops/moves over TX today. This will lead to breezy to
windy conditions today with gusts from 30 to 45 mph. Higher gusts
along the coast. Winds should weaken a bit this evening (at least
inland) as pressure gradient relaxes. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect through early this evening.
Conditions should gradually improve from west to east this evening,
leading to drier conditions for the rest of the short-term period.
Breezy and cooler north-northwest winds will keep daytime
temperatures in the 50s on Wednesday. Overnight lows in the 30s.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023
High pressure remains overhead on Thursday leading to mostly clear
skies and highs in the mid to upper 50s with overnight lows in the
low to mid 30s inland and low 40s along the coast. Friday will start
off similar with mostly clear skies as temperatures warm up a little
more with highs in the low 60s. By Friday evening, surface high
pressure begins to push east, ushering in the return of onshore
flow, increasing cloud cover, and increasing temperatures.
Therefore, overnight lows on Friday reach the mid to upper 40s.
Onshore flow will continue to increase on Saturday as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of the next mid-level trough pushing through
Central Texas. This onshore flow will noticeably increase
temperatures with daytime highs expected to reach the low 70s on
Saturday and Sunday. Models are also hinting at this next trough
invigorating a weak coastal low near our coast until the next cold
front sweeps through Southeast Texas on Sunday. Therefore, we could
see another rainy weekend for Southeast Texas and another mild start
to the work week.
Walts
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023
Conditions will continue to deteriorate today with strong winds, low
ceilings and reduced visibility with the passage of a strong cold
front. Ceilings will gradually drop to MVFR and IFR conditions
through the morning as showers/storms develop over the region. The
best potential for LIFR conditions and high winds will be in the
afternoon along the frontal boundary. Strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible, bringing the potential for damaging winds,
tornadoes and large hail. Breezy to windy easterly winds this
morning will transition to the south-southeast by midday, then to
the northwest behind the front. As the main low system moves off of
the region tonight, wraparound MVFR ceilings will remain through the
rest of the TAF period for terminals north of IAH, including
CLL.05
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 423 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023
Onshore winds will continue to increase today ahead of an
approaching strong cold front. Currently, a Small Craft Advisory is
in effect for all of our coastal waters which will eventually
transition to a Gale Warning starting at 6 AM this morning and
lasting through at least 12 AM on Wednesday. Sustained winds will
reach 30-35kts with gusts up to 50kts possible. In addition, seas
will build to 10-15 feet. These strong onshore winds will lead to
dangerous rip currents and water levels 3.5 to 4 ft above MLLW,
causing some minor coastal flooding during high tide. Before the
frontal passage, scattered showers and thunderstorms across our
coastal waters could produce isolated waterspouts. Once the front
arrives later this afternoon, we can expect damaging winds, isolated
waterspouts, and heavy rain reducing visibility. Behind the front,
winds will quickly become NW and likely remain above Small Craft
Advisory conditions throughout the day on Wednesday.
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436-438-439.
Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335-350-355-
370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Walts
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Walts
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:20 am
Thought coastal areas were at highest risk. Doesn't sound like it anymore.
Oh, they are still in the crosshairs, its just that the targeted area has expanded north to include pretty much all of Harris and some southern portions of MoCo.
