January 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
walsean1
Posts: 132
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:50 pm
Contact:

Looks like no winter precipitation for SE Texas. Unless there is an underestimated element to the forecast models that they are not picking up on.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

walsean1 trust me with this setup youll be glad its just rain for yall
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

walsean1 wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 4:12 pm Looks like no winter precipitation for SE Texas. Unless there is an underestimated element to the forecast models that they are not picking up on.
There has been but not for Houston.

The temperature is really tanking out there. 20° drop in the last couple of hours.
brazoriatx
Posts: 328
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
Contact:

Where is the front now? Still in the 70s here
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Looks like the front is just passing huntsville now, should be in the houston area within the next couple of hours,
Went from 70->51 in an hour
suprdav2
Posts: 92
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:39 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Ended up with 5.9 inches of rain. Cypress Rosehill at the grand parkway is closed due to flooding.
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

suprdav2 wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:52 pm Ended up with 5.9 inches of rain. Cypress Rosehill at the grand parkway is closed due to flooding.
That’s nuts.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Based on the latest nam, wouldnt be surprised if my area gets included in the winter storm watch and possibly some western counties, freeze line is further south,
Nam has some pretty nasty totals
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

About an hour ago, posted on Facebook by Travis Herzog, KTRK TV Met:

To be perfectly clear, for most of the daylight hours Monday through Wednesday it will be in the 30s and 40s under a cloudy and at times wet sky.
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

And Travis Herzog went on to say this:

Out of necessity, just about every forecast generated in a weather app or on a website (even our own) is automated using a blend of computer model data. That process generally works well in the majority of weather situations, but this is not one of those situations.

This shallow cold air (the edge of an arctic front), is not handled well by the majority of the computer models. I know many of you use weather apps first to plan your week instead of relying on the local news, so this was simply a courtesy heads up that if you aren’t getting your forecast directly from a human, you’re likely going to get caught off guard.

#trustthehumans 😁
User avatar
don
Posts: 2576
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Yep,models are coming in even colder tonight,if the trend continues parts of SE Texas may need to be put under a winter weather advisory or warning.
Attachments
Screenshot 2023-01-29 at 21-00-32 Models NAM — Pivotal Weather.png
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:16 pm
walsean1 wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 4:12 pm Looks like no winter precipitation for SE Texas. Unless there is an underestimated element to the forecast models that they are not picking up on.
There has been but not for Houston.

The temperature is really tanking out there. 20° drop in the last couple of hours.
Make that a 30°F drop in temps.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

RDPS 00z shifts south east as well, oh boy
Attachments
302DCFEE-5A57-490B-968A-1537243AC057.png
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

don wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:26 pm Yep,models are coming in even colder tonight,if the trend continues parts of SE Texas may need to be put under a winter weather advisory or warning.
Exactly as predicted. You learn a thing or two living in the same town for decades. ;)
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:50 pm RDPS 00z shifts south east as well, oh boy
Reality hitting. Humans know how to integrate physics, their knowledge, and nowcasting experience.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:50 pm RDPS 00z shifts south east as well, oh boy
NAM is ramming it home.

Image
User avatar
don
Posts: 2576
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

This setup is almost identical to last years February 3rd ice storm that affected a big chunk of the state.Global models greatly underestimated the shallow air,and winter weather advisories and warnings were issued.When just a day or two before that the frozen precip was expected to stay only in central and north Texas.(NOTE:this map isn't current,just a map of the event from last year)
Attachments
FKnjwLpXMAE6OQ9.jpg
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

And this ice storm could easily be even more significant than that pne from last february, we got so much moisture to work with plus multiple disturbances moving across the state
Last edited by Stratton20 on Sun Jan 29, 2023 10:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

don wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:58 pm This setup is almost identical to last years February 3rd ice storm that affected a big chunk of the state.Global models greatly underestimated the shallow air,and winter weather advisories and warnings were issued.When just a day or two before that the frozen precip was expected to stay only in central and north Texas.(NOTE:this map isn't current,just a map of the event from last year)
Yep.

The Hill Country has been upgraded to a Winter storm warning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
927 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

TXZ171>173-184>190-192-301130-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WS.A.0001.230130T1800Z-230201T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0001.230130T1500Z-230201T1800Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-Gillespie-
Kendall-Blanco-Travis-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Rocksprings,
Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne, Blanco,
and Austin
927 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of up
to two tenths of an inch will be possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Texas.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Monday to noon CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freezing rain could begin as early as
tomorrow morning across the warning area. Icing will be possible
mainly during the late night through mid-morning hours when
temperatures will be coldest, though minor glazing of elevated
surfaces could occur by the afternoon commute tomorrow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages.

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.

&&

$$
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 10:01 pm And this ice storm could easily be even more significant than that pne from last february, we got so much moisture to work with plus multiple disturbances moving across the state
days and days of it.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Amazon [Bot] and 87 guests