January 2023

[walsean1]

Yep,models are coming in even colder tonight,if the trend continues parts of SE Texas may need to be put under a winter weather advisory or warning.

If it is indeed the case that the models have underestimated this cold air, that would be crazy. It just like today where we were placed under a flash flood watch since I think the rain was also underestimated.

[DoctorMu]

Waiting for NAM and HRRR updates.

[walsean1]

So models have shifted further south but keeps Houston/Beaumont/Port Arthur out of this for now?

[DoctorMu]

So models have shifted further south but keeps Houston/Beaumont/Port Arthur out of this for now?

I would say so. It will still be 5°F+ colder than the #notsosmartphone forecasts.

[Cromagnum]

I don't see this being anything at all down here. Even our local Mets only show 40s and 50s all week.

[Cpv17]

I don't see this being anything at all down here. Even our local Mets only show 40s and 50s all week.

It’ll be colder for the western half of southeast TX, especially initially. And it’ll definitely be colder than the 40’s and 50’s. Will be in the 30’s for a lot of us and 40’s for the rest. Sometimes you have to make your own forecast based off of experience with past events.

[don]

Temps will be stuck in the 30s and 40s(nearly all the reliable mesoscale models have temps staying in the 30's and low 40's for most of SE Texas for atleast a couple of days.).We see this almost every year with these shallow arctic air-masses.I'm not sure when the NWS will learn to ignore the globals in these situations and undercut the models.Instead they will be playing catch up all week just like last year and many times before with these shallow airmases.For right now i expect most areas to be ok and just receive a very chilly rain,but it may be a different story for northwest counties (Brazos Valley)

[TexasMetBlake]

Quick update: possible expansion of WWA to include San Antonio as well as areas further south and east is being monitored for the 4am update. Wouldn’t surprise me at all.

[don]

Advisory issued for the Brazos Valley.

[jasons2k]

Just a cold rain for most of us. Maybe some ice north and west of the metro area.

I also no longer see any signals for a major arctic intrusion this month. If I can skate through this weekend without a freeze (it will be close) then my last freeze of the season may be behind me already.

Winter is about done folks.

[tireman4]

Back from Garland ( a three day swim meet as I am a USA Swim Official and my son is the swimmer),

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 408 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Big changes in the forecast with cooler temperatures and winter
weather conditions across portions of Southeast TX. The cold front
that moved across the region on Sunday is currently extending along
the offshore waters. Further inland, the surge of colder
temperatures was quicker that most deterministic guidance suggested
with the freezing line just between Austin and the Brazos Valley
areas as of early this morning. In fact, sfc obs reported
temperatures already dropping into the mid to upper 30s across
Caldwell and Bryan/College Station areas. Hi-res guidance, including
latest NAM, continue to suggest a shallow cold airmass slowly
filtering over SETX today as the front pushes further offshore. With
that being said, have leaned towards the cooler solutions and made
significant downward adjustment in temperatures through the entire
short-term period. There will be a sharp gradient in temperatures
today. Highs will range in the 30s to low 40s just west of the
Houston metro area and in the 40s and 50s south.

In terms of precipitation, decent isentropic lifting will keep
precipitation chances during the day with off and on light showers.
Will continue to monitor the Brazos Valley area, and our far western
counties as they are positioned in the transition zone between rain
and freezing rain/drizzle. Forecast soundings continue to show a
pronounced warm nose aloft with a mix of freezing rain and or drizzle
at the surface. With temps cooling or remaining into the 30s, a
transition to light freezing rain or drizzle can be expected at
times. The column aloft has remained warm roughly east of a line
from Columbus to Navasota to Huntsville, allowing rain to be the
primary p-type.

Precipitation chances increase tonight into Tuesday as a surface
trough develops over the region and the LLJ intensifies. Upper lvl
ridge centered over Cuba will help to keep the best precipitation
chances across our half northern counties. With a shallow cold
airmass remaining at the sfc, periods of light wintry mix cannot be
ruled out through Tuesday night. Most guidance suggests a warm
forecast, with rain as the main p-type. However, latest RAP and ARW
are the most aggressive solutions keeping mixed precipitation across
our far northwestern counties at times. Will continue to monitor the
evolution of this shallow cold airmass during the day.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Burleson, Brazos and
Washington Counties where a light glaze can be expected. Ice
accumulations up to a tenth of an inch will be possible across the
far western areas if cooler air continues to filter in.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

On Wednesday, shortwave impulses will continue to pass across the
region in advance of a mid to upper trough over Baja California.
Simultaneously, a coastal trough will develop over the Deep S Texas
coastline. PWATS near 1.4" and ample PVA/forcing should bring rainy/
overcast conditions across the region for most of the day. These
dreary conditions intensify into Wednesday night as the aforementioned
coastal low rides up along the SE Texas coast while the upper level
trough fills NE towards TX/OK. CREST soil moisture shows much of the
region at or above 40% soil saturation, with a few bullseyes of 70%,
mostly in northern Harris county. Forecast soundings depict
saturated profiles with a deep warm cloud layer, favorable for high
precipitation efficiency, especially with a faint 30 knot LLJ. WPC
has areas along and north of the I-10 corridor under a slight risk
of excessive rainfall on Wednesday, where PVA and upper level
forcing is most favorable. All other portions of the region remain
under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for this time frame.
Locally heavy rain will be possible with this storm system, with
saturated soil conditions bringing the risk of minor street/river
flooding.

The coastal low will exit east of our area on Thursday with showers
and thunderstorms tapering off as a cold front pushes in behind it.
Skies will begin to clear Thursday night as high pressure drops in
from the Plains. Paired with CAA brought by the FROPA, this will
bring chilly conditions Thursday night with lows in the 30/40s
area wide. Onshore flow is progged to return on Saturday as this
surface high pushes east of the state, allowing daytime highs to
climb back into the 50s/60s this weekend. Global models depict a
weak surface boundary pushing towards SE Texas on Sunday from
another upper level disturbance. This boundary appears to fizzle
out by the time it reaches our area, allowing benign weather to
continue through the weekend.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 513 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Patchy to areas of fog will slowly clear this morning as the day
heats up. LIFR CIGS will slowly lift to IFR levels later this
morning, though overcast skies, northerly flow and scattered
showers will persist throughout the TAF period. CIGS should lower
back to LIFR levels this evening, later lifting back to IFR
levels Tuesday morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Patchy sea fog, some locally dense, will bring low visibility and
hazy conditions across the bays early this morning. Moderate
northeast winds will persist through Tuesday, potentially warranting
caution flags at times. A warm front will make its way into the
waters beyond 20nm of shore on Wednesday. Periods of light rain will
be possible into midweek with weak upper level disturbances passing
overhead. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night
into Thursday in advance of another cold front. Drier, but breezy
conditions are expected in the wake of the front late Thursday into
Friday.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 36 34 38 35 / 30 40 60 70
Houston (IAH) 46 40 47 41 / 30 30 40 50
Galveston (GLS) 55 49 53 49 / 20 20 40 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST
Tuesday for TXZ195>197.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
MARINE...03

[Cpv17]

Just a cold rain for most of us. Maybe some ice north and west of the metro area.

I also no longer see any signals for a major arctic intrusion this month. If I can skate through this weekend without a freeze (it will be close) then my last freeze of the season may be behind me already.

Winter is about done folks.

That’s depressing lol

[Cromagnum]

Just a cold rain for most of us. Maybe some ice north and west of the metro area.

I also no longer see any signals for a major arctic intrusion this month. If I can skate through this weekend without a freeze (it will be close) then my last freeze of the season may be behind me already.

Winter is about done folks.

That’s depressing lol

It really never started. I've worn my coat 2x the entire time and ran the AC more than any heater we have.

[Cpv17]

Just a cold rain for most of us. Maybe some ice north and west of the metro area.

I also no longer see any signals for a major arctic intrusion this month. If I can skate through this weekend without a freeze (it will be close) then my last freeze of the season may be behind me already.

Winter is about done folks.

That’s depressing lol

It really never started. I've worn my coat 2x the entire time and ran the AC more than any heater we have.

Dang. I’ve worn mine probably 20+ times but I’m probably a lot more sensitive to the cold than you are.

[don]

Its felt like winter to me.Just more of average winter around here not too cold (except for the December outbreak) but not a constant blowtorch either. We live on the gulf coast you're gonna have warm ups. It isn't going to stay constantly cold all winter ,that's just not the way it works here.

[javakah]

Its felt like winter to me.Just more of average winter around here not too cold (except for the December outbreak) but not a constant blowtorch either. We live on the gulf coast it isn't going to stay constantly cold all winter you're gonna have warm ups,that's just not the way it works here.

I was thinking the same thing. I've at least gotten to turn off the AC for some good stretches and been able to take my dogs out for some long walks without sweating. Last year I felt that I was robbed of winter, but not so much this year.

[snowman65]

Just a cold rain for most of us. Maybe some ice north and west of the metro area.

I also no longer see any signals for a major arctic intrusion this month. If I can skate through this weekend without a freeze (it will be close) then my last freeze of the season may be behind me already.

Winter is about done folks.

Thats what Ive been trying to say.... but what do I know lol

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs and euro are sucking right now!!!

[Stratton20]

As I say folks tamper you’re expectations for winter here, you’re living in the wrong part of the US if you’re looking for a sustained cold winter lol we all know its a rollercoaster here , this winter has been below average here with the exception of a few weeks in january, ill take that, not looking forward to the trash spring weather ahead, just shuddering thinking about those nasty 70’s and 80’s

[DoctorMu]

Advisory issued for the Brazos Valley.
image1.png

We've already had freezing rain in some areas of the Brazos Valley this morning. Temps hovering around 33-34°F. We won't reach 40°F today.