January 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
walsean1
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don wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:26 pm Yep,models are coming in even colder tonight,if the trend continues parts of SE Texas may need to be put under a winter weather advisory or warning.
If it is indeed the case that the models have underestimated this cold air, that would be crazy. It just like today where we were placed under a flash flood watch since I think the rain was also underestimated.
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DoctorMu
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Waiting for NAM and HRRR updates.
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walsean1
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So models have shifted further south but keeps Houston/Beaumont/Port Arthur out of this for now?
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DoctorMu
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walsean1 wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 10:27 pm So models have shifted further south but keeps Houston/Beaumont/Port Arthur out of this for now?
I would say so. It will still be 5°F+ colder than the #notsosmartphone forecasts.
Cromagnum
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I don't see this being anything at all down here. Even our local Mets only show 40s and 50s all week.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 10:44 pm I don't see this being anything at all down here. Even our local Mets only show 40s and 50s all week.
It’ll be colder for the western half of southeast TX, especially initially. And it’ll definitely be colder than the 40’s and 50’s. Will be in the 30’s for a lot of us and 40’s for the rest. Sometimes you have to make your own forecast based off of experience with past events.
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don
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Temps will be stuck in the 30s and 40s(nearly all the reliable mesoscale models have temps staying in the 30's and low 40's for most of SE Texas for atleast a couple of days.).We see this almost every year with these shallow arctic air-masses.I'm not sure when the NWS will learn to ignore the globals in these situations and undercut the models.Instead they will be playing catch up all week just like last year and many times before with these shallow airmases.For right now i expect most areas to be ok and just receive a very chilly rain,but it may be a different story for northwest counties (Brazos Valley)
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Quick update: possible expansion of WWA to include San Antonio as well as areas further south and east is being monitored for the 4am update. Wouldn’t surprise me at all.
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don
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Advisory issued for the Brazos Valley.
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jasons2k
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Just a cold rain for most of us. Maybe some ice north and west of the metro area.

I also no longer see any signals for a major arctic intrusion this month. If I can skate through this weekend without a freeze (it will be close) then my last freeze of the season may be behind me already.

Winter is about done folks.
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