January 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 10:03 am I’ve seen December and February severe outbreaks, but I can only think of one other severe episode in January in my time here (moved here in 2007).

Now that I think about it, I don’t recall any in CLL when I was in school there 2000-2004.
We had an F0 or F1 tornado go over our (old) house - that was December 2006. It hit the Doux Chene apartments and tore the roof. I got a peak out the back windows and twister/funnel cloud was almost a translucent blue-green as it descended (no debris yet). It threw back patio furniture around and tossed the A/C fan unit in our neighbor's yard across the street. Fortunately, it was weak and we were lucky.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 261124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

A chilly start to Thursday with temperatures dropping into the low
30s to low 40s. Clear skies, residual moisture and light winds have
also lead to patchy fog across our northern counties early this
morning. Patchy fog will linger through 7-8am given calm winds and
weak mixing.

Surface high pressure centered over TX will continue to dominate the
weather today, resulting in a dry and cooler airmass. A quasi-zonal
flow aloft continues to send weak impulses of energy, developing
high clouds/cirrus. Otherwise, a comfortable day is on tap with
mostly sunny skies and light northerly winds. Highs will generally
be in the 50s. Another quiet and chilly night is expected with lows
mainly from the mid to upper 30s. Temperatures in the low 30s can be
expected across our far northern counties.

Pattern will begin to change by Friday as the sfc high moves to the
east and a sfc low develops over the central/high Plains. This
pattern will enhance the southerly flow at the surface; bringing a
warmer and more humid Gulf airmass. PWATs will gradually increase
throughout the day, reaching values into the 1.1-1.3 inch range by
Friday night. Low level warm air advection will lead to isentropic
lifting on the 295K level after 00Z Saturday (6pm Friday), with the
best lifting after midnight. If ample low-level saturation occurs,
could see light rain/streamer showers developing late Friday night
with increasing rain chances towards the weekend (more details in
the Long-term section). In terms of temperatures, a warming trend is
expected into the weekend. Friday`s highs will be in the 50s and
60s. Low temperatures from the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

By Saturday morning, high pressure has moved out and onshore flow
has resumed. A 30-35kt LLJ setting up across Southeast Texas on
Saturday should invigorate some streamer showers, leading to
20-40% PoPs in the morning that steadily increase throughout the
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Late Saturday and into
Sunday still appears to have decent rain coverage as several
features align to enhance our rain chances locally. A mid-level
shortwave trough coming off the Rockies will generate a leeside
low over the Southern Plains that quickly races towards the
northeast with the polar jet. Meanwhile, the subtropical jet and
another mid level trough over Mexico will move over coastal Texas,
across the Gulf coast, dragging a cold front with it. Global
deterministic models are still hinting at a coastal trough
developing late Saturday night too that gets eventually caught up
in the dynamics of the polar and subtropical jet until it pushes
out on Sunday evening. The timing of these features will greatly
determine our rain chances this weekend regarding peak activity,
duration, and rainfall amounts, but as of right now it appears
that the early morning hours on Sunday will have the best rain
chances at 60-80% that will gradually taper off to 10-20% by
sunset on Sunday. Relief from the rain will be brief as the tail
end of the cold front stalls across the Gulf and invigorates
another coastal trough along the South Texas Coast on Monday that
lifts towards Southeast Texas on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the
next mid-level shortwave on Wednesday.

Walts

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with light
northwest to north winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

Winds and seas will continue to decrease today. Onshore flow
returns by Friday afternoon and evening as surface high pressure
pushes east. Onshore winds will strengthen this weekend as the
next storm system approaches. Rain chances steadily increase on
Saturday and into Sunday as the next storm system moves through
our coastal waters. Winds will easily meet advisory criteria and
could reach advisory levels on Saturday into early Sunday.

Walts

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 56 35 59 47 / 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 57 36 61 50 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 56 45 60 56 / 0 0 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CST this morning
for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Walts
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Walts
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DoctorMu
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Hit freezing here last night. Today looks perfect. Brilliant sunshine. High = 56°F
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sambucol
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Pow Ponder. Cold is coming. Ice storm part of Texas.
https://youtu.be/7WUgGuUSlAk

How do we embed a youtube video in a post? Thanks in advance
Last edited by sambucol on Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Stratton20
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man if the 12z CMC verified, that would be absolutely brutal for some parts of the state late next week
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sambucol
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:55 am man if the 12z CMC verified, that would be absolutely brutal for some parts of the state late next week
Can you elaborate, please? Including the Houston area?
Stratton20
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sambucol on that run its just central and north texas, but a major ice storm, we dont need that stuff down here, but signs are increasing that somewhere in the state next week could be a messy setup for ice/sleet and maybe some snow, lots to watch, almost every member of the GEFS ensemble has a winter storm in the state next week
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sambucol
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Thank you
Iceresistance
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Next Week is going to be scary
I get an Ice Storm, then a Sleet Storm, and to end the week: a Snowstorm!

The Icy weather could make it as far south as San Antonio or maybe College Station because the Shallow Arctic Air mass ignores the upper-level patterns.
Cpv17
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Absolute incredible QPF signal on the models! Wow!
brazoriatx
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:39 pm Absolute incredible QPF signal on the models! Wow!
Won't matter if we don't get the cold right
Stratton20
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i feel very confident we are going to have an active storm track with plenty of moisture to work with, the cold is a question though, though the GFS and Euro op runs make no sense at all regarding the cold air, ensembles are significantly different than the op runs and thats very important
Cpv17
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brazoriatx wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:47 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:39 pm Absolute incredible QPF signal on the models! Wow!
Won't matter if we don't get the cold right
Matters to me cold or not cold. I love me a ton of rain.
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DoctorMu
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Canadian and some of the Ensembles are running far colder than the GFS and Euro, both of which poorly predicted the Feb 2021 winter storm.

Image
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DoctorMu
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Combine the above with...


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Cromagnum
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Fully expect that sharp rain cutoff to be just east of us. Watch.

Even that pink region is only 2-3 inches of rain spread over a week's time.
Cpv17
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Looks like 2-4” over the next 7 days across SETX. Higher totals in the eastern part of the area. Some isolated areas will see much higher totals.
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Ptarmigan
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If the forecast has freezing temperatures and rain, it could mean snow or freezing rain. It depends on how cold the upper atmosphere is. Snow occurs when there is deep cold. What do forecast models have temperature at different levels?
Stratton20
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The CMC 00z now brings some freezing rain into our NW and western counties, at hour 132 which is only 5 days, thats well within a range that some of us might really need to be watching this very closely, as its looking a little more likely that some sort of winter storm may impact the state next week to some degree, ensemble support is very high as well
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Last edited by Stratton20 on Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:03 pm, edited 4 times in total.
redneckweather
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Active stormy pattern...yes.

Cold for wintry weather...no.

3 more weeks and Spring will start to show itself!
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