January 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Re: January 2023

Post by tireman4 » Mon Jan 30, 2023 6:56 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 302343
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

I know what you`re all really here to read about...the winter
weather portion of the discussion begins in the second paragraph
if you`d like a headstart. With yesterday`s cold front now
stalled just off of the coast and the development of a coastal
trough, we have seen moisture remain abundant across Southeast
Texas. One consequence of this is patchy dense fog in and around
the bays/coastal Gulf waters. This will persist at least into
tonight and perhaps into Tuesday as the shallow cold and moist
airmass prevails. NAM soundings depict deep saturation up to
around 2000-2500 ft for most of the area, but does increase up to
~4000 ft in the Brazos Valley. This brings about the second
consequence of the coastal trough, which has been the light rain
and drizzle that`s fallen throughout the day. This is courtesy of
isentropic lifting over the front.

With such a shallow cold air layer, temperatures aloft remain
rather warm. In fact, NAEFS/GEFS depicts 850mb and 700mb
temperatures will remain well above the 90th percentile through
tomorrow. This places temperatures about ~2000 ft above the
surface around 12-15°C...so the warm nose is verrrry warm. As a
result, we`re only looking at freezing rain or liquid rain as far
as p-type goes across portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods area depending on the surface temperature. Based on the 12Z
hi-res model guidance and WPC`s latest ice accumulation forecast,
we upgraded Burleson County to a Winter Storm Warning and added
Madison/Houston Counties into the Winter Weather Advisory. Those
hazards are in effect through Wednesday morning. Temperatures so
far today in these areas have remained in the low to mid 30s with
light precipitation continuing to be reported. Although Caldwell
has been right around freezing for most of the dayshift, we
haven`t received any reports of ice on elevated surfaces/roadways.
With surface temperatures expected to drop near to below freezing
tonight, we could see light ice accumulations in the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods area by morning. Temperatures outside of
this region will range from the mid 30s to low 40s. Those of you
around the Houston metro area can rest easily tonight as there
will be no winter weather impacts around the city.

Going into Tuesday, there won`t be much in the way of warming as low
overcast clouds continue to persist along with a northerly breeze
steadily advecting in cold air at the surface. We`ll have to keep an
eye on conditions upstream as that may impact tomorrow`s temperature
forecast. With a northerly breeze flowing over the accumulating ice
in North Texas, that could bring slightly cooler air into our
northern locations. This of course could also impact our
precipitation forecast for Tuesday night as well, but more on that
in a bit. A weak LLJ develops over the Brazos Valley on Tuesday
afternoon and increases the intensity and coverage of the
precipitation. For now, we have liquid rain in the grids during
the afternoon, but we`ll have to monitor surface temperatures
again. This is a good time to mention that it`d be of great help
to us to use the mPING app to report precipitation type...we`d
greatly appreciate it! :)

The ARW continues to be the hi-res outlier with freezing rain
occuring well into the afternoon hours down into Washington
County. Temperatures are expected to reach above freezing on
Tuesday afternoon though so we`ve put that on the backburner for
now...Tuesday night is where we have the most confidence of
freezing rain occuring across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods areas.
Precipitation will be in greater abundance Tuesday night with
moisture increasing (PWs up to 1.3"-1.6") along with a slightly
further southward extent of near to below freezing temperatures.
Those in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods can expect at least a
light glaze of ice accumulations on elevated surfaces and
roadways, which could impact travel conditions for the Wednesday
morning commute. Be sure to stay tuned to the NWS, local media,
and TXDOT for the latest information on weather and road
conditions.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Lingering cold air at the surface will lead to the potential of some
light freezing rain persisting into the morning hours of Wednesday
for the northern portions of Burleson, Brazos, Madison, and Houston
counties. Be sure to plan for extra commuting time Wednesday morning
if you are in these counties, and remember "Ice and Snow, Take it
Slow". Elevated surfaces, such as bridges and overpasses, will have
the best chance for developing a light glaze on the surfaces.
Surface temperatures should warmup by 10am to Noon Wednesday morning
for any precipitation to remain rain.

Rain showers, especially for areas north of Conroe, will linger all
day on Wednesday as a weak short wave moves through the region.
There will be an increase in the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday as a large upper level
trough swings through SE Texas. This precipitation will bring up to
1 to 3 inches of rain to the area, mainly north of I-10, with
locally higher amounts possible. This amount of precipitation
wouldn`t no normally be an issue, but with repeated heavy rainfall
events that past week or so our soils are saturated. Three hour FFG
has dropped to 2 to 3" for a large section of our region, so we may
have to deal with additional isolated minor flooding in low lying
areas. Rivers remain elevated from our rainfall and rain that fell
upstream, so additional minor to moderate river flooding is possible
Thursday. The associated cold front will move through Thursday
afternoon ending the precipitation and finally ushering in a period
of dry weather for us.

High pressure settles in over us on Friday bringing clear skies and
light winds. There will be a weak disturbance aloft passing through
Saturday into Sunday, but should only result in the return of partly
cloudy skies for us. The drier weather should stick around through
early next week allowing for us to dry out a bit.

High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will climb into the upper 30s
to low 40s for most areas north and west of the Houston Metro, with
the rest of the area staying in the upper 40s. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will only be about 1 to 4 degrees lower than the
high temperature thanks to a thick cloud layer preventing much, if
any, cooling. Thursday will see temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s ahead of the front, but then drop back down into the 30s
to 40s Thursday night. Clearer skies Friday and into the weekend
will lead to high temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s (even
approaching 70 on Sunday). Friday night may be the coldest night of
the long term thanks to light winds and clear skies providing amble
radiational cooling with subfreezing temperatures possible north of
Huntsville with the rest of the area down into the 30s. Slight
increase in cloud cover will bring overnight lows back into the 40s
Saturday night.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Not a lot of changes with this TAF package as LIFR/IFR conditions
persist tonight and tomorrow. Will keep the mention of VCSH in at
out more northern terminals overnight given the current placement
of the upper jet, but will drop the mention for the central/south-
ern sites for the overnight hours. For now will keep any mentions
of wintry precipitation (mainly FZDZ) out of CLL for tonight, but
it could still be a brief possibility by sunrise. These overcast/
broken LIFR/IFR decks to prevail once again tomorrow. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Patchy fog, dense at times, will linger in the near shore waters and
Matagorda Bay into tonight with the potential for fog continuing
into Thursday. Small craft should exercise caution through tomorrow
morning as breezy northeasterly winds between 15 and 20 knots will
continue into tonight. Scattered light rain showers will persist
through Wednesday, but an increase in showers and thunderstorms is
expected Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front moves through
the area. Moderate offshore flow is expected Thursday night into
Friday morning resulting in the potential need for small craft
advisories. High pressure builds in on Friday and in over the
weekend ending the sea fog threat.

Low tides will be around 0.5ft below MLLW through this week due to
low astronomical tides plus the offshore winds.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 34 38 34 39 / 40 60 70 80
Houston (IAH) 40 47 40 45 / 30 40 40 70
Galveston (GLS) 49 52 47 52 / 30 40 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ163-176-
196-197.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ195.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-350-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Fowler

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srainhoutx
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Re: January 2023

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:08 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Mon Jan 30, 2023 5:40 pm
I woke up to -22 wind chill this morning and decided to go for a walk.

I have lots of great pictures from tops of peaks in below zero weather and high winds. Pure zen! I was sweating skiing some back bowls because I had layered up too much.

I’ll upload some pictures when I get back.
I'm looking forward to your pictures!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

Stratton20
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Re: January 2023

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:46 pm

officially at 32 degrees now, seeing some light sleet here
00z HRRR has .50 of ice for me, yikes

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2023

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:25 pm

Yep. We're right along the freeze line. It looked like ice fog on campus underneath the lights on West Campus as I was coming home an hour ago. I should have taken some pictures.

I'd expect we could have ice on bridges and grass/cars in the am.

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Re: January 2023

Post by TexasMetBlake » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:28 pm

So the 00z Hrrr is….concerning lol. Man, it brings a devastating ice storm to Austin and the I-35 corridor. It’s 30°F now, colder than forecast and has been all day.

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2023

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:29 pm

The freeze line is a Gonzalez to College Station to Crocket line.

We have another 36 hours of this. My phone had snow, but haven't seen any yet...but did see some sleet earlier.

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Re: January 2023

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:29 pm

Now thats a doosy on the WRF run wow
There are several mesocale models suggesting we stay below freezing for 48-60 hours lol
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Re: January 2023

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:32 pm

TexasMetBlake wrote:
Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:28 pm
So the 00z Hrrr is….concerning lol. Man, it brings a devastating ice storm to Austin and the I-35 corridor. It’s 30°F now, colder than forecast and has been all day.
29°F around Austin and freezing down to the 1604 loop just north of San Antonio.

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Re: January 2023

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:34 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:29 pm
Now thats a doosy on the WRF run wow
There are several mesocale models suggesting we stay below freezing for 48-60 hours lol
That looks like a disaster. The NAM is still in that general direction.

Image

Image

:shock:
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: January 2023

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:35 pm

I mean its just a wall of freezing rain that just trains over the same area,
HRRR has .50 of ice in CS, NAM :0.04, A&M still keeping the campus open, ugh
00z RDPS keeps us below freezing for 48 hours with 0.35 of ice for CS
Needless to say tonights trends are very concerning
Last edited by Stratton20 on Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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