January 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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sambucol
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Any chance the freeze line will go farther south of Houston?
walsean1
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Just for some clarification, I am in Spring,Texas and even though we shouldn’t see any Wintery precipitation, my forecasted low temperatures have decreased into the mid 30s today vs 2 day ms ago when it was supposed to remain in the 40s for lows.
walsean1
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We are the blessed ones in the SE corner of Texas that will escape the ice. Prayers for the persons that are one the roads In this weather
TexasBreeze
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Northwest Harris and Bush are both in the upper 30's 37/38 degrees after being around 42 or so for the longest time.
Stratton20
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00z HRW……. wow just wow
This is an extremely concerning trend, might get upgraded to a winter storm watch
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jasons2k
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It’s 37 here. Weather app shows it rising to 41 by 7am. We’ll see what happens overnight.
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DoctorMu
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Down to 32°F here. Heading to the grocery story. It could be an icy day tomorrow.

The weather phone app has been wrong all day.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu wouldnt be the least bit surprised to see our advisory upgraded to a winter storm warning at the 4 am update , prepare for the worst but hope for the best
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djmike
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NWS LC said our low for Beaumont was going to only be down to 50. Woke up this morning to 42. Guess we got a little more of the cooler air than expected.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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jasons2k
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Warmed up to 39.
Showing 34 Sat Am. Gonna be close.
Tech had an amazing comeback win last night.
Stratton20
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31 degrees , winter storm warning and campus still open here, disaster waiting to happen ugh
Cromagnum
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:16 am 31 degrees , winter storm warning and campus still open here, disaster waiting to happen ugh
I remember around 2005 or 2006, in January when spring semester was starting we had a pretty bad ice storm. They didn't close campus until it was already piling up.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 311125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

I believe the technical term for the weather over the next couple
of days is known as `gross`. While no part of Southeast Texas will
escape a prolonged period of drizzle, light rain, and fog we find
ourselves mired in, an influx of cold air along the northern and
western edges of our forecast area will add an entirely undesired
icy dimension to things. Here are the key things to know about:

① The winter storm warning for Burleson County has been expanded
to include Brazos, Madison, and Washington counties. A small shift
in the band of heaviest freezing rain, especially tonight into
tomorrow morning, has nudged forecast accumulations in excess of
1/8 inch into these counties, particularly their northwestern
portions.
② Along with that, the winter weather advisory for some
ice accumulation up to 1/8 inch has expanded to include Walker,
Grimes, Waller, Austin, and Colorado counties. The higher concern
here also is in the northwestern portions of the counties, with a
sharp gradient to little or no accumulation in the southeastern
part of these counties.
③ Another concern, despite being a `wintry` event, will also be
flooding. Cold and icy air/ground will enhance runoff of rainfall,
making flooding issues crop up with less rain than usual. This
may become particularly important tomorrow and tomorrow night as
conditions warm modestly, allowing for some higher rain rates to
work in. Those north of the Houston metro have a greater concern
for this setup.
④ And on the warm side of all this mess are multiple marine
threats. The short term concern is sea fog, with a dense fog
advisory on the waters through at least mid-morning. Additionally,
a small craft advisory is in effect for later today through at
least tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

The weather is already gross early this morning, and we`re just
getting started...and the office is close to the Gulf, so we`re
not even close to where the icy stuff is gonna happen! Yes, the
short term forecast is not really a question of *when* the weather
is going to stink, but more one of *how much* it`s going to stink.

Why? Well, there are probably a whole lot of philosophical
questions we can wax about on that, but let`s stick with the
scientific things I can speak to in this little forecast
discussion. At the surface, we`ve got a cold front sitting
offshore over the Gulf, but it`s not that far off...just enough to
seep in some colder air from the north. This colder air is
extremely shallow, however. 925 mb winds are still southerly over
virtually the entire forecast area, and with this interface
between colder surface air and warmer air aloft, we are mired
area-wide in a morass of very low clouds, mist, fog, drizzle, and
light showers. If you can imagine a way to get water droplets
around here, we`ve got it.

Of cooourrrrsssse, as we`ve still got that very shallow pool of
cold air working in, we can`t really expect things to stay all
liquid everywhere. Already at this early hour, Caldwell has
slipped below the freezing mark and reported freezing/frozen
precip. Though it`s the only ASOS/AWOS station at or below
freezing, a glance at observations on other networks show the
freezing line has at least sporadically pushed into all the other
winter storm warning counties (shocker, I know). With north winds
and a thick, thick blanket of clouds preventing solar radiation
from reaching the surface, I think the best we can hope for today
is that the freezing line doesn`t push any farther south than it
is. This is already enough for a pretty lousy day, and that`s not
even getting into tonight. The only real silver lining is that
since any sub-freezing air is very shallow, there`s very high
confidence here that the only two precip types we have to deal
with are rain(/drizzle) or freezing rain(/drizzle).

So, tonight. As we lose what little insolation we managed to get
during the day, continuing north winds should push the freezing
line deeper into the area. How deep? If you`ve got a winter storm
warning, all the way through your county. If you`re in a winter
weather advisory, it goes partially through your county. Good news
for spots like Katy and Eagle Lake. Columbus, Crockett and
Hempstead? Eh...maybe not so much. While we get this battle of
surface cold air and warmer air just above it doing battle, we can
look for a stream of little localized vort maxes in the southwest
flow well aloft to provide pulses of rainfall on and off. Though
rain rates won`t be exceptionally high, things will add up through
the night. This looks to push ice accumulation over an eighth-inch
and towards a quarter-inch in the warning area. This is likely to
be higher in parts of Burleson County, which is seeing an onset of
freezing rain earlier, and will have it prolong the latest. Some
accumulations around or below an eighth-inch are expected, with a
focus on the northwestern parts of these counties.

The main uncertainty here is where, precisely, the band of highest
rain sets up. Though it has drifted somewhat southeast as we come
into range of higher-res guidance, the worst of it is still to our
north and west. So, we`ll need to watch how far south the colder
air gets, and where the main rains set up. If it`s not where
expected, we may need to reconfigure the warnings and advisories
some more. Should that shift be to the south, some of these
warning counties will need to be on guard for more significant
icing impacts. I don`t think that`s going to happen, as the high-
res models should be handling this really shallow airmass better,
but when the cold air is this shallow, it pays to be ready for
surprises.

Through the morning tomorrow, we`ll again take advantage of
whatever insolation we can get through the muck to push the
freezing line back to the north of the area, gradually bringing an
end to freezing rain. And though north winds stay in place at the
surface, it seems ultimately the warm air will win this battle,
with rain most likely to stay liquid through tomorrow night.
However, this introduces a new problem - flooding. Cold ground and
ice accumulations are going to much more effectively turn rainfall
into runoff, At the same time, it appears some of the highest rain
rates look to take over tomorrow night. Now, fortunately, these
still aren`t expected to be terribly high. Still, the prospect of
increasing rain rates over ground that`s absorbing rain less
efficiently means more water headed towards local streams and
low-lying areas. WPC has a slight risk for excessive rain out for
most of the area north of Houston, and this seems pretty
reasonable as this overlaps with the coldest/iciest antecedent
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

A coastal low will exit east of our area on Thursday as a cold
front pushes in behind it. Showers and storms should taper off
throughout the day as the front clears our area, though overcast
skies should prevail into the night. With northerly flow still in
place, Thursday`s lows should remain in the 30s across most of the
region and lower 40s along the immediate coast/barrier islands.
Skies should clear out on Friday as surface high pressure drops in
from the Plains. Daytime heating will work against CAA, bringing
highs mostly in the 50s across much of SE Texas. Overnight lows
will be a tad cooler than the night before, but largely still in
the 30s/40s throughout our area.

Onshore flow should return on Saturday as the surface high pushes
east of the state. This will usher in a warming trend with
daytime highs climbing into the upper 50s/60s over the weekend.
Highs will aim to break 70 degrees early next week as onshore flow
strengthens from a deepening surface low over the TX/OK
panhandle. Progs of more active weather are in store later in the
upcoming week as moisture builds ahead of another upper level
trough over the Western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS, northerly flow, patchy fog and drizzle
will prevail across the region for much of the TAF period. Sub
freezing temperatures could bring freezing rain across our
northern terminals, especially during the overnight/early morning
hours at KCLL. Mixed precipitation/ice cannot be fully ruled out
for KUTS either. Scattered to isolated showers late tonight will
become more widespread heading into Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Areas of fog will prevail the next couple of days. Visibilities will
vary, though it could be around 1 mile at times. Moderate northeast
winds will strengthen this afternoon, warranting the need for
caution flags and advisories overnight. A warm front will make its
way into the waters beyond 20nm of shore on Wednesday. Periods of
light rain will be possible through midweek with weak upper level
disturbances passing overhead. Look for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday in advance of another
cold front. Drier, but breezy conditions are expected in the wake of
the front late Thursday into Friday as surface high pressure builds
in. Onshore flow should return on Saturday as this surface high
pushes east of the state.

Low tides will be around 0.5ft below MLLW through this week due to
low astronomical tides plus the offshore winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 35 31 37 36 / 70 50 90 90
Houston (IAH) 45 37 44 41 / 40 30 60 80
Galveston (GLS) 51 44 50 48 / 20 30 40 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ163-177-
198-210>212.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ176-195>197.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST
Wednesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
MARINE...03
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don
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imarge1.png
walsean1
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don wrote: Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:23 amimarge1.png
That is about as close as it gets to being in a freezing rain storm or flooding rain possibly in Houston although I would take the ice so I could be off from work for a day. We would need tropical storm ish type rain to shut down the area with just rain. I would take 2021 but without the power outages😀
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jasons2k
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Up to 40 here. 34 in Huntsville. 50 in Galveston. 59 in Lake Charles. Quite a temperature gradient, almost 48 hours after frontal passage. Translation: that SE ridge is stout.
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DoctorMu
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Yes it is.

32°F here and that's where it's going to stay for the next 24 hours+. Caldwell to Austin to San Antonio are a slippery mess. DFW indeed had a deeper pocked of arctic air and have been full sleet instead of freezing rain.

The latest ARW has it just about right. I bought everything for a big pot of Fiesta soup last night.

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Stratton20
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when is the precipitation expected to pick up here? seems like everything is out to the west of us like yesterday
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tireman4
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AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail through the period with CIGs
remaining between 300 and 600ft. Northerly winds around 10kts will
also continue through the period with wind gusts up to 20kts
possible at LBX and GLS. Patchy fog and scattered light rain
showers/drizzle will be possible across the area through
Wednesday with freezing rain possible this evening through
Wednesday afternoon at CLL and UTS. There will be an increase in
coverage of the showers Wednesday afternoon from the south to the
north.

Fowler
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jasons2k
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Up to 43 here. Just took the dogs outside. Feels colder than 43!! That moist air under overcast just makes it miserable. I have a small heater going in my office. Since there is no excitement here except a cold, chilly drizzle, I’m done with this. Ready for those 60’s and 70’s I see in the forecast after this cold snap.
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