January 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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If we are supposed to have an Arctic front next week, my 7day forecast isn't showing any hints of that. Lows in the 50s.
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snowman65
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We have our own tornado alley.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251121
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

Quieter weather returns to the area today with drier, cooler and
breezy conditions. The strong low system that impacted Southeast TX
yesterday is well east of the region. However, there are still some
weak impulses of energy embedded in the WSW flow aloft, resulting in
additional wraparound clouds. Therefore, low to mid clouds will
persist today across most of the region as the main low continues to
track east. Cold air advection will continue to filter in with north
to northwest breezy winds. Daytime temperatures will generally range
in the 50s, with even cooler readings across our far northern
counties. With breezy winds, it will feel in the 30s and 40s in the
morning hours. Winds should gradually weaken by late this
afternoon/early evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. Mostly
clear skies and continued CAA will result in a chilly night.
Tonight`s low will mainly be in the 30s inland, 40s along the
islands.

High pressure will continue to dominate the pattern on Thursday.
With decent CAA in place, daytime temperatures will struggle to
reach the 60s despite ample sunshine. Highs in the 50s can be
expected. This is 5 to 10 deg below normal. With mostly clear skies,
cooler northerly flow, Thursday night into Friday will be another
chilly night. Overnight lows from the upper 20s to upper 30s inland,
and in the 40s along the islands.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

High pressure begins to slide east on Friday evening, ushering in
the return of onshore flow and therefore increasing temperatures,
dewpoints, and cloud cover. Daytime highs will reach the low 60s,
but overnight lows will be noticeably warmer and only cool down to
the upper 40s to low 50s. By Saturday, onshore flow increases
further ahead of a strengthening leeside low over the Southern
Rockies. Therefore, we can expect 20-30% PoPs from streamer
showers on Saturday in the morning through the afternoon
gradually increasing to 60-70% PoPs by the late evening as a
mid-level shortwave over Mexico pushes across the Texas Coast.
Numerous showers will persist through Sunday morning until this
shortwave pushes east towards the Carolinas. Fringes of a surface
high pressure settle in on Monday before quickly pushing
northeast, bringing back onshore flow and increasing temperatures
again. Overall this weekend and early next week will see highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will peak in the low 60s
on Saturday night and then drop to the 50s through Sunday and
early next week.

Walts

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 515 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected through most of the day.
Conditions should gradually improve by early/mid afternoon with
VFR conditions. Breezy NW winds will prevail with gusts around 20
knots at times. Winds will gradually weaken early this evening
and become light (8 knots or less) through the rest of the TAF
period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

Winds and seas continue to subside early this morning, but
Advisory conditions are expected to remain through mid-morning
where Caution flags will most likely replace it through tonight.
Offshore winds will continue until Friday afternoon once high
pressure starts to slide east. Onshore winds will continue to
strengthen Friday evening and through the weekend ahead of the
next storm system.

Walts

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 53 33 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 54 36 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 54 43 56 44 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Walts
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Walts
brazoriatx
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:03 am If we are supposed to have an Arctic front next week, my 7day forecast isn't showing any hints of that. Lows in the 50s.
Ya I haven't heard much talk about it. I'm sure it has to do with the bad weather we just had also
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:03 am If we are supposed to have an Arctic front next week, my 7day forecast isn't showing any hints of that. Lows in the 50s.
I’m 20s and 30s. 50s over the weekend with nasty humid weather but I’ll be around zero in the mountains so y’all enjoy that trash. ;)
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jasons2k
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brazoriatx wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:14 am
Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:03 am If we are supposed to have an Arctic front next week, my 7day forecast isn't showing any hints of that. Lows in the 50s.
Ya I haven't heard much talk about it. I'm sure it has to do with the bad weather we just had also
Gotta go past 7 days. Looks to arrive on Thursday.
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jasons2k
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Morning update from Jeff. I’m assuming those “wind reports” were gusts - they had to be…

Run-off continues across the area from heavy rainfall on Tuesday.

A daily record 4.04 inches of rainfall was recorded at BUSH IAH on Tuesday

Spring Creek:
Creek has crested and started a slow fall in the headwaters downstream through Hegar Rd and is near crest along the rest of the channel. No significant flooding is currently observed, but minor low land flooding near the creek banks will be possible today. Creek will fall through the day.

Cypress Creek:
Cypress Creek has crested at all locations downstream (east) of US 290 and is slowly falling. Location upstream of US 290 (west) are still slowly rising as run-off from eastern Waller County continues to progress downstream. Additional slight rises on the upper portion of Cypress Creek at Sharp and Katy Hockley is likely this morning, but no significant flooding is forecasted. Overbank flooding continues on Mound Creek, but the creek has crested and is slowly falling and will return within banks later today.

Little Cypress Creek:
Creek remain near bankfull at Becker Rd with minor low land flooding in progress upstream to Roberts Rd including portions of Zube Park. Creek is very slowly falling and will fall back within banks today.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
Run-off from both Spring and Cypress Creeks has resulted in a rise in the river to flood stage at US 59 this morning. River is at crest right at bankfull and no significant impacts are expected.

East Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River is elevated this morning and near crest at FM 1485 and Plum Grove, Cleveland is rising and a secondary minor rise on the lower portion of the river will be possible later today into tomorrow as upstream water routes downstream. No flooding is expected.

Lake Houston:
Significant run-off from both forks of the San Jacinto River is resulting in a rise in the lake pool that will approach the top of bulkheads around the lake. Some minor impacts to docks and low lying areas near the lake will be possible today. The City of Houston opened the tainer gates yesterday to help draw down the lake level some ahead of the heavy rainfall.

Lower San Jacinto River:
Flows moving through lake Houston are resulting in a rise in the river at US 90 and Rio Villa. River levels are expected to remain below impact thresholds on the lower portion of the river system. Strong currents and flow are likely today on this portion of the river.

Addicks Reservoir: current pool is 88.8ft and rising slowly. Upstream run-off continues into the reservoir and the pool will continue to slowly rise until releases by the COE begin.
Barker Reservoir: current pool is 81.94 ft and rising. Upstream run-off continues into the reservoir and the pool will continue to rise until releases by the COE begin.

Wind Reports (Tuesday):
Sugar Land: 51
Stafford: 48
Galveston: 49
Texas City: 42
Houston Hobby: 59
Webster: 55
Morgan’s Point: 49
Bush IAH: 47
La Porte: 47
Clear Lake: 47
Tomball: 39
Palacios: 47
Bay City: 45
Ganado: 50
Anahuac: 52
Pearland: 49
Galveston North Jetty: 53
Surfside: 56

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
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don
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20 reports so far of tornadoes yesterday in SE texas. (Doesn't mean there were 20 tornadoes a lot of those reports are for the same storm.)
I think sometimes people forget that tornado outbreaks don't always consist of many tornadoes. Sometimes it's just one or two strong long track tornadoes that does just as much damage as having multiple smaller tornadoes. So sometimes the data may look like there was a ton of tornadoes in one particular outbreak but those reports may be from the same tornado.
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don
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Looks like 7 tornado warnings were issued yesterday for the Houston metro area.With around 14 tornado warnings issued in SE Texas as a whole.
Last edited by don on Wed Jan 25, 2023 10:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I’ve seen December and February severe outbreaks, but I can only think of one other severe episode in January in my time here (moved here in 2007).

Now that I think about it, I don’t recall any in CLL when I was in school there 2000-2004.
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don
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We had a mini tornado outbreak just a year ago on January 8th.Interesting that it effected some of the same areas.
From HGX
A warm front moved up through the region Saturday January 8th ushering in a moist, unstable airmass bringing tornadoes and flooding to portions of Southeast Texas. The first two tornadoes occurred in the late afternoon on 1/8 with the first one briefly touching down on the southside of Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) at around 3:55pm with a second tornado occurring at around 4:20pm near the town of Dayton in Liberty County. There was a lull in the tornadic activity through the rest of the evening, but then another brief tornado occurred in the town of Montgomery in Montgomery County at around 9:40pm. Before the clock struck midnight, the last tornado of the day (but not of the event) occurred in Spring Valley, Harris County at 11:55pm CST. A tornadic supercell then dropped two tornadoes a couple hours later on 1/9 twice in the town of Humble at around 1:17am CST then again in the town of Kingwood at 1:25am. This tornado in Kingwood would then be the last tornado of the event.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rainfall through the event. Some of the highest amount fell in Harris, Montgomery, Polk, and Liberty counties where Flash Flood Warning were needed. The highest rainfall total of the event was 9.92" three miles southeast of Roman Forest in Montgomery County.
The flooding brought road closures to roads in Liberty County at CR2500 and at Plum Grove Rd near the town of Cleveland.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Okay, 2 events. The one I was thinking of was the 2020 mid January storm that wiped out my barn and killed one of our horses.
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Iceresistance
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I got at least 5-8 inches of snow (most kept melting), I may have gotten over an inch of QPF.
Stratton20
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We may need to start paying attention down the road in the 6-8 day range as a winter battle zone may set up right over our area, clash of the arctic airmass vs warm SE winds, this type of pattern is notorious for producing ice storms, the CMC and some of the other models hint at this, just gotta watch the trends, i will say the 12z GEFS ensemble is really active over the state during the next ~10 days, just my two cents as i figured its worth mentioning
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

Lingering MVFR CIGS expected to slowly clear this afternoon with
occasionally gusty northwesterly winds. Light winds and VFR
conditions return this evening, prevailing through the remainder
of the TAF period.
Iceresistance
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SE Houston tornado is currently rated EF-2, the first of its kind down there in January since 2018.
869MB
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On January 9, 2012, we had a high precipitation supercell churn along the I-59 corridor towards the NE producing a few tornado reports and widespread street flooding through Fort Bend and Harris County including the Houston Metro Area.
dp6
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Tornado archives provides some perspective:

https://tornadoarchive.com/explorer/2.1 ... E)F4,(E)F5

5-7-76 f1 tornado followed almost the exact same path, just a slight shift in angle

12-31-84 f2 ran parallel almost half the distance, but on the se side of beltway 8.
Iceresistance
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Iceresistance wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:32 pm SE Houston tornado is currently rated EF-2, the first of its kind down there in January since 2018.
Nope, it just got upgraded to EF-3.
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snowman65
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Has the Deer Park tornado been graded yet, or is that the same one?
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