January 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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We had a mini tornado outbreak just a year ago on January 8th.Interesting that it effected some of the same areas.
From HGX
A warm front moved up through the region Saturday January 8th ushering in a moist, unstable airmass bringing tornadoes and flooding to portions of Southeast Texas. The first two tornadoes occurred in the late afternoon on 1/8 with the first one briefly touching down on the southside of Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) at around 3:55pm with a second tornado occurring at around 4:20pm near the town of Dayton in Liberty County. There was a lull in the tornadic activity through the rest of the evening, but then another brief tornado occurred in the town of Montgomery in Montgomery County at around 9:40pm. Before the clock struck midnight, the last tornado of the day (but not of the event) occurred in Spring Valley, Harris County at 11:55pm CST. A tornadic supercell then dropped two tornadoes a couple hours later on 1/9 twice in the town of Humble at around 1:17am CST then again in the town of Kingwood at 1:25am. This tornado in Kingwood would then be the last tornado of the event.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rainfall through the event. Some of the highest amount fell in Harris, Montgomery, Polk, and Liberty counties where Flash Flood Warning were needed. The highest rainfall total of the event was 9.92" three miles southeast of Roman Forest in Montgomery County.
The flooding brought road closures to roads in Liberty County at CR2500 and at Plum Grove Rd near the town of Cleveland.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Okay, 2 events. The one I was thinking of was the 2020 mid January storm that wiped out my barn and killed one of our horses.
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Iceresistance
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I got at least 5-8 inches of snow (most kept melting), I may have gotten over an inch of QPF.
Stratton20
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We may need to start paying attention down the road in the 6-8 day range as a winter battle zone may set up right over our area, clash of the arctic airmass vs warm SE winds, this type of pattern is notorious for producing ice storms, the CMC and some of the other models hint at this, just gotta watch the trends, i will say the 12z GEFS ensemble is really active over the state during the next ~10 days, just my two cents as i figured its worth mentioning
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

Lingering MVFR CIGS expected to slowly clear this afternoon with
occasionally gusty northwesterly winds. Light winds and VFR
conditions return this evening, prevailing through the remainder
of the TAF period.
Iceresistance
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SE Houston tornado is currently rated EF-2, the first of its kind down there in January since 2018.
869MB
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On January 9, 2012, we had a high precipitation supercell churn along the I-59 corridor towards the NE producing a few tornado reports and widespread street flooding through Fort Bend and Harris County including the Houston Metro Area.
dp6
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Tornado archives provides some perspective:

https://tornadoarchive.com/explorer/2.1 ... E)F4,(E)F5

5-7-76 f1 tornado followed almost the exact same path, just a slight shift in angle

12-31-84 f2 ran parallel almost half the distance, but on the se side of beltway 8.
Iceresistance
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Iceresistance wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:32 pm SE Houston tornado is currently rated EF-2, the first of its kind down there in January since 2018.
Nope, it just got upgraded to EF-3.
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snowman65
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Has the Deer Park tornado been graded yet, or is that the same one?
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srainhoutx
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NWS Houston
@NWSHouston
·
1m
NWS Houston can now confirm that the Deer Park/Pasadena tornado will be preliminarily rated EF3, with an estimated maximum path length of 18 mi, maximum path width of 0.66 mi, and maximum wind speed of 140 mph. We will provide a full summary later this evening. #houwx #txwx
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Cpv17
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Pretty big difference between the Euro and GFS as far as precipitation goes.
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don
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The GFS is showing one heck of a stormy pattern with the subtropical jet and a blocking SE ridge allowing storms to dig more.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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don wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:57 pm The GFS is showing one heck of a stormy pattern with the subtropical jet and a blocking SE ridge allowing storms to dig more.
That’s all we can ask for. Don’t need extreme cold to cash in.
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Stratton20
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yep the upper level pattern looks great on the GFS, just need it to trend colder again, typical losing the cold again, should be back in a few runs lol
The euro actually has some light snow accumulations across the area fwiw
Kingwood36
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Security certificate has expired and the site is messing up again..
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:45 pm Security certificate has expired and the site is messing up again..
Yeah it just did it to me too.
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srainhoutx
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I've notified Andrew about the Certificate.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Stratton20
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00z CMC has a nasty ice storm for central and north texas next week
meanwhile the GFS continues to secure last place out of the three global models right now as it still isnt seeing the arctic air,
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:31 am
Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:03 am If we are supposed to have an Arctic front next week, my 7day forecast isn't showing any hints of that. Lows in the 50s.
I’m 20s and 30s. 50s over the weekend with nasty humid weather but I’ll be around zero in the mountains so y’all enjoy that trash. ;)
I just cooked some fajitas on the BBQ in the cool dry air. An evening affair, but those coals in the darkness. I've never enjoyed the smell and sight as much.

A great day today and Chamber of Commerce day tomorrow.

TWC has capitulated. Arctic air on the way in a week.

Hope everybody is OK in HOU... the damage was really bad and the tornado swath was formidable - wedge shaped and rain wrapped?
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