January 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
dp6
Posts: 92
Joined: Sun May 24, 2020 5:32 pm
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:16 am 31 degrees , winter storm warning and campus still open here, disaster waiting to happen ugh
Ground is warm, and now up to 33 degrees. Roads should be fine until at least tonight.
suprdav2
Posts: 97
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:39 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Temp has been falling here all day. Was 40 earlier this morning, now down to 36.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4695
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 312042
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
242 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

The overall theme for the short term forecast is disgusting.

Before getting into the freezing rain forecast, let`s talk
temperatures. Burleson, Brazos, and Madison We will be watching counties
will be dropping below freezing this afternoon and will likely
not climb back above freezing until tomorrow afternoon.
Temperatures tonight will be falling to or below freezing for
areas north of I-10 and west of I-45, and also for areas north of
Lake Livingston. South of I-10 and east of I-45 will drop into the
mid to upper 30s. Those looking for a warm up on Wednesday will
need to go to Florida as high temperatures here will be in the mid
to upper 30s across the northern Brazos Valley and up through
Houston County and then low to mid 40s for most of the area. The
temperature graph for Wednesday will flatline as thick cloud cover
will keep low temperatures Wednesday night just be a few degrees
lower than the high temperature of the day.

Now let`s get into the meat of the freezing rain. Temperatures will
slowly fall below freezing at the surface across the northwestern
corner of the region through this afternoon. However, this will be a
very shallow cold air layer with above freezing temperatures above
925mb (peaking at 10C at 850mb). The potential for freezing rain
will persist for the northern Brazos Valley through late Wednesday
morning, but may also see some isolated -FZRA Wednesday night. No
change to the warning/advisory configuration was made with Winter
Storm Warnings in effect through Noon Wednesday for Brazos,
Burleson, Washington, and Madison counties with Advisories in effect
for Colorado, Austin, Waller, Grimes, Walker and Houston counties.
There is the potential for Burleson, Washington, and Brazos counties
to see Advisories Wednesday night, but the potential is so low that
I am not extending the products at this time. Up to 0.15 to 0.2" of
ice accretion in the northwestern portion of the warned area is
possible with a light glaze to less than 0.1" is expected in the
northwestern portions of the counties in the advisory.

There is a possible solution where we do not get as much ice
accretion as expected due to rainfall, especially in more moderate
rain rates, pulling that elevated warm layer down towards the
surface. This would keep the rain droplets from supercooling - thus
no freezing rain. This isn`t the most likely solution, but something
to keep in the back of our minds going into late tomorrow morning
when rain rates may increase a bit.

Speaking of rain, we also have the potential to see some locally
heavy rainfall across the northern half of the region beginning
Wednesday night and Thursday. Generally up to 1 to 2 inches is
expected with isolated high amounts. WPC has placed the areas along
and north of I-45 in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for
Wednesday night. This amount of rainfall would normally not amount
to any impacts, but between the already saturated, cold ground any
rainfall may lead to minor flooding in areas of poor drainage. Minor
river flooding is also possible in spots along the Trinity and San
Jacinto rivers as well as already high bayous in northern Harris and
Montgomery counties.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

We will be watching showers and thunderstorms and the risk of locally
heavy rainfall move off to the east as the day progresses on Thursday
as the coastal low heads on out of the area. Much drier air will filter
into the area behind this system as surface high pressure builds in
from the north. A dry forecast is in store for the area late Thursday
night through Monday with north winds at the start of the period becoming
mainly east to southeast over the weekend. Strengthening south to southeast
winds at the start of next week can be expected.

For temperatures, if you like a warming trend you will like this. Highs
in the 40s/50s on Thursday will be in the 50s Friday, in the 50s/60s
Saturday, in the 60s Sunday and in the 60s/70s on Monday. Inland lows
will be a little slower to rise, with readings in the 30s Friday and
Saturday and in the 40s Sunday and Monday.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail through the period with CIGs
remaining between 300 and 600ft. Northerly winds around 10kts will
also continue through the period with wind gusts up to 20kts
possible at LBX and GLS. Patchy fog and scattered light rain
showers/drizzle will be possible across the area through
Wednesday with freezing rain possible this evening through
Wednesday afternoon at CLL and UTS. There will be an increase in
coverage of the showers Wednesday afternoon from the south to the
north.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Areas of fog will remain possible into Thursday morning. Visibilities
will vary, though it could be around 1 mile at times. Otherwise, mainly
moderate north to northeast winds can be expected through Thursday as
a coastal storm system organizes and moves up the coast and then eventually
off to the east. Caution and/or Advisory Flags will be needed. Before
the system moves on out, expect periods of mainly light rain with the
possibility of showers and thunderstorms mainly Wednesday night through
Thursday morning. Drier but breezy conditions are expected Thursday
night and Friday in the wake of the system (again, Caution and/or Advisory
Flags will be needed). Lighter east to southeast winds along with lowering
seas can be expected over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 31 37 35 46 / 50 90 80 70
Houston (IAH) 38 43 40 49 / 30 60 70 80
Galveston (GLS) 45 49 47 54 / 40 60 60 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ163-177-
198-210>212.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ176-195>197.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday afternoon
for GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...42
TexasBreeze
Posts: 947
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

It is cooling decently around Hooks apt. It is now 38 after being in the 40s earlier. Bush has 39
txbear
Posts: 235
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:54 pm
Contact:

It does feel a bit colder out. I wonder if the unmodified cold from the ice, etc. is starting to filter down into the area on those northly winds.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5978
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Welp. Texas A&M cancelled classed tomorrow. That probably ensures a plain rain even for us. ;)

Winter Weather Closure - February 1
January 31, 2023 04:31 PM

Texas A&M University is canceling classes at the Bryan-College Station campus on Wednesday, Feb. 1, as the potential for winter weather threatens the area.

Aggie Dining will have modified hours of service. Visit tx.ag/alternatedininghours for details.

Bus service will not run, and the following are closed: University Recreational Sports facilities and all Texas A&M Libraries.

Employees who perform duties essential to clinical services, facility management, safety or security should confirm reporting protocol with supervisors. All other employees are authorized to work remotely on Wednesday. Employees who cannot perform assigned tasks remotely should affirm their circumstances with supervisors and request emergency leave, as appropriate.

For campuses outside of Bryan-College Station, check your respective campus website for potential closures and weather updates.

University officials will continue to monitor the situation and provide updated information if additional impacts to campus operations will occur. Normal operations are expected to resume Thursday, Feb. 2.
Stratton20
Posts: 4460
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

DoctorMu wouldnt be surprised if thays the case haha, although the HRRR continues to say Ice ice baby, spits out 0.21 for CS lol
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5978
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

The freezing line runs from northern San Antonio to Bryan to Jacksonville to Texarkana.

We've cooled 2°F in the last hour to freezing. The phone weather app is still pushing for temps warming overnight.

HRRR and WRF-ARW prog temps dipping to 30°F or below through tomorrow early afternoon. NAM down to 31°F tomorrow. RGEM down to 28°F. We'll see.

Image
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5978
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:53 pm DoctorMu wouldnt be surprised if thays the case haha, although the HRRR continues to say Ice ice baby, spits out 0.21 for CS lol
Could be. The mesos are in good agreement.

It depends upon the fortitude of The Wall.

Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKY_Bh53YDE
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5978
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

davidiowx
Posts: 1072
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

As much as most of us want winter weather here, myself included, I am perfectly ok watching this from just south of the freezing line. Ice storms suck!
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5978
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

That Baja low that the Canadian sniffed out days ago means business.

I'm leaning towards a glaze of ice now.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5978
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

davidiowx wrote: Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:28 pm As much as most of us want winter weather here, myself included, I am perfectly ok watching this from just south of the freezing line. Ice storms suck!
We'll probably just get a glaze in CLL.

However, there will be flooding to our south.

That Baja low is going to create lift, so I'm skeptical of warming and expecting more cooling than originally expected tonight and tomorrow, but the mesos have sussed that out over the past day.

Note: the temps just dropped another degree here. This arctic air won't give up the ghost. At least until Thursday.
Stratton20
Posts: 4460
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

I may not get above freezing until thursday afternoon, tommorow is going to be an absolute mess
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5488
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

CLL is reporting 34 now.

At my house, the temp has been slowly rising again for the past hour.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5978
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

It's 33°F at the airport. 32°F on most of the independent measures.

Current Wundermap temps, FWIW. We continue to be right on the freeze line.
Attachments
Wundermap.temps.jpg
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5978
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

On a razor's edge. We have incoming soon.

31°F and continuing to drop.
Attachments
zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1742
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Its been quite the month. Now on to the Feb thread as the ice/snow from Jan continues… See you there!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Post Reply
  • Information