February 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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man that Nam run wow
12z CMC has a light glazing of ice in CS
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DoctorMu
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^Wait until the Baja ULL gets in range on the NAM.

My apologies to everyone south of Hwy 1*5.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu 5-10% chance of seeing >.01 ice accumulations, definitely gotta watch this one closely, very close call for CS
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redneckweather
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Cold nasty morning in Conroe. Good news is it's February 1st and Spring is literally just around the corner! No snow for Southeast, Texas this year...shocker.lol
user:null
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A live look at the scene from Houston and (most of) SE Texas during this wintry event.

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https://media.tenor.com/Jw8I___MCdQAAAA ... -dodge.gif
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jasons2k
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I made it through January without recording a freeze (surprise surprise haha) let’s see if the streak continues through February. This weekend will be a close call. Right now it’s 37 and raining. Can’t run in this.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 402 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

Cold, soggy conditions continue across Southeast Texas, with
freezing rain occurring and expected to expand across the
northern parts of the area. Satellite and radar imagery suggests
that a band of the heaviest freezing rain is setting up just to
the northwest of our forecast area, creating the continued
expectation of warning-level accumulations through this morning
of at least one-eighth of an inch along our northern border,
rising to as high as a third of an inch in parts of Burleson
County. A lighter glaze with less than one-eighth of an inch of
accumulation is anticipated a bit deeper into our area, but still
stopping short of the Houston metro, which should remain above
freezing.

With these types of accumulations, travel impacts are the main
threat today in the warning and advisory areas. Even a light
glaze of ice can become treacherous on untreated roads, and
requires caution or even a postponement in travel. The higher the
accumulations, the stronger icing impacts will become, along with
increased resistance to any mitigation efforts. In parts of
Burleson County, which have struggled to rise above freezing since
the first round of rain yesterday, accumulations may exceed a
quarter-inch, at which point we often begin to see detrimental
effects on smaller tree branches and power lines. This could cause
isolated power outages.

Finally, as temperatures warm just slightly above freezing this
afternoon, we`ll shift attention to the potential for any
localized flooding through the night into Thursday morning. Cold,
soggy grounds and higher than typical river levels will prime us
to see flooding impacts at lower rain rates and rainfall amounts
than we are used to seeing. Fortunately, though rain rates do look
to increase during this stretch, they are still not high enough to
cause more than isolated flooding concern. If you are near low-
lying, poor drainage areas, or notice that local streams and
rivers are already running high, be on the lookout for localized
minor to moderate flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 402 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

Temperature observations show that the freezing line has pushed
into our area from the north tonight, reaching from roughly
Ratcliff to Madisonville to Brenham, then southward to Columbus.
Meanwhile, after a bit of a break in rain showers (though maybe
not the drizzle) this evening, the radar is filling back in
through these overnight hours. For the moment, both radar and
water vapor imagery suggest that the heaviest freezing rain so far
is occurring just on the other side of the northern boundary of
our forecast area, with lighter rain to the south. However, a look
upstream shows more light to moderate rain lining up more with our
warning area, so an increase in potential for icing in the warning
and advisory area is anticipated going into the early morning
hours.

For those farther south, the weather will still be a mess -
cold, cloudy, drizzly, patchy fog, and occasional showers...but
the silver lining is that temperatures will stay above the
freezing mark, so very importantly, icing is not anticipated. This
rough status quo across the area should continue through the
morning, as temperatures struggle to increase through the thick
cloud cover and soggy conditions. Eventually, this afternoon,
temperatures should manage to rise enough for the freezing line to
retreat out of the area, putting an end to ice accumulation.
Because of this, the warning and advisory remain in place until
noon, though we may locally need an extension based on actual
temperature trends this morning (Looking at you, Burleson County).

Though the temps should rise above freezing this afternoon, the
rest of this mess isn`t really going anywhere. Indeed, we should
see a weak coastal trough or low begin to develop offshore, while
an upper trough continues to approach from the west, streaming
leading vort blobs overhead in the southwest flow aloft. This
should keep rain potential up through the day and overnight. We`re
likely to see a modest boost in rain rates later this afternoon
and tonight, particularly in the northernmost portion of the
forecast area.

In normal circumstances, this would not really be worth
mentioning. But given the recent soggy conditions, potential
icing, and otherwise colder ground, rains will convert to runoff
more efficiently than we are used to. Additionally, many local
streams and rivers are already running higher than typical. This
modest boost in rainfall intensity later today into Thursday
morning may be enough to produce some localized flooding concerns.
Spots of concern should be constrained to locations around
streams/rivers that are already running close to (or above) their
banks, and in the usual low-lying, poor drainage areas.

This developing coastal low will make its way towards the
Louisiana coast through the day Thursday. Once we find ourselves
on the back side of the low, we should see more northwesterly
winds than northeasterly, and a little drier conditions gradually
putting an end to rain chances. We could call this a cold front,
though the ending rainfall may actually allow temperatures to rise
to their highest marks in a few days in spite of some cooler air
moving into the region. The last lingering showers may hang on
into the evening in the northeast around Houston County towards
the Pineywoods as low level moisture wraps around the 850 mb low,
which will be around the ArkLaTex.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

The end of the work week will feature much more benign weather as
surface high pressure drops in from the Central/Southern Plains.
Clear skies should improve diurnal heating, allowing for high to
rise into the 50s during the day. These clear conditions will
also improve cooling overnight, working with CAA/northerly flow to
bring lows in the 30s inland and 40s along the immediate coast.
The northern half of our CWA could see lows at or below freezing
with our northernmost counties progged to drop into the upper 20s.

Surface high pressure should push east of the state on Saturday with
onshore flow returning that afternoon and ushering in a warming
trend into next week. West/southwesterly flow at 850mb should
improve heating on Sunday, bringing highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s during the day. Onshore flow should strengthen into next week as
a surface low spins up over the TX/OK panhandle in response to
another upper level trough over the Western CONUS. This will bring
increasing moisture and cloud cover across our area, with overnight
lows in the 50s/60s.

Global models begin to move out of phase at this point in the
forecast. The current GFS depicts the aforementioned upper trough
and associated surface low ejecting northwest towards the northern
Plains/Great Lake, while a cutoff low becomes trapped over the Four
Corners to create a short-lived "Rex block-like" feature. In this
scenario, the associated cold front stalls out just north of SE
Texas. Alternatively, the Euro shows the upper trough/surface low
pushing further eastward, draping the front across the region.
Either way, guidance still hints at more rain on the way for next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 533 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

More lousy flying conditions ahead without a whole lot better to
look forward to. Widespread LIFR/IFR this morning, with FZRA and
FZDZ for CLL and UTS. Outside chance at CXO, but temps at 34 so
any window will be very brief and not worth including in the TAF.
DZ, BR, and periods of SHRA farther south restricting VSBY. CIGs
probably the limiting factor area-wide though, generally around
the LIFR/IFR threshold. Tonight, another round of predominant rain
showers, but likely warm enough to preclude and freezing. Perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm, but too low confidence to include at any
TAF site.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

Moderate offshore winds and elevated seas will prevail through the
end of the work week, warranting the need for caution flags and
advisories at times. Light rain and drizzle this morning will become
more widespread tonight as a cold front pushes across the region.
Patchy sea fog remains possible across the nearshore waters and
bays until this front passes. Showers and storms should begin to
taper off on Thursday as the front clears our area. Advisories
will likely be needed Thursday evening into Friday as winds
strengthen in the wake of the front. These stronger winds could
bring low water conditions across the bays Friday morning. Onshore
flow should return Saturday afternoon with benign conditions
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 36 34 42 34 / 80 80 80 10
Houston (IAH) 42 39 45 39 / 70 80 90 10
Galveston (GLS) 48 45 48 43 / 60 60 80 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ163-177-198-
210>212.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for TXZ176-195>197.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ350-
355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 3 PM CST this afternoon
through late tonight for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03
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jasons2k
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I see CLL is at 34. Still lots of 32-33 readings in the B/CS vicinity. I wonder how much ice actually accumulated up there. Probably not much.
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jasons2k
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MSN weather says “Rain and Snow” for me today. Don’t think so.
Stratton20
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Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
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70s might be returning next week, absolutely depressing
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