February 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Katdaddy
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A nice Galveston Mardi Gras weekend #1 on the way with partly sunny skies and mid 50s.
Thundersleet
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Is anyone in this forum a fan of Mardi Gras, Day and Nighttime parts?
Stratton20
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I am, I absolutely love mardi gras day ( night as well) we usually get a king cake, and the first person that bites or finds the toy in the cake has to throw a party, definitely a fun little tradition!
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DoctorMu
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HEB carries king cakes, so I just bought our 2nd!
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jasons2k
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Absolutely - we just picked up two king cakes from Montgomery Bakehouse. They make some of the best around.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 131037
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
437 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 437 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

WAA today will result in warmer conditions with high temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 70s for much of Southeast TX, a little
cooler along the northernmost counties. The local pressure gradient
will tighten this evening and south southeasterly winds will
strengthen as Southeast TX gets wedged between a surface high
pressure over the LA shores and a surface low pressure developing
over New Mexico. The stronger onshore winds will continue to bring
warm moist air from the Gulf into the region, increasing PWs to near
1.0 inch by this evening. The 900-700mb levels will remain very dry
and steep capping will likely limit rain chances for today. We will,
however, have skies turning from partly cloudy this morning to
mostly cloudy by the late afternoon to evening hours. A mid level
low will move eastward into the Arizona/New Mexico region this
evening/early tonight and push a cold front across TX late tonight
into Tuesday. This cold front will race eastward across Central TX
late Monday night and move across Southeast TX Tuesday morning.
Expect showers to develop ahead and along the front, starting over
the north and northwest portions around midnight tonight and
expanding east southeast overnight into Tuesday morning. Some
thunderstorms are possible, mainly for areas north of I-10. The
front is expected to depart to our east by early Tuesday afternoon,
ending the chances of rain as much drier air moves in. The day will
remain breezy, with southwest to west winds ranging between 15-20
mph and higher gusts on occasion. Highs will remain warm, generally
in the mid to upper 70s inland, but a few degrees lower for areas
that would receive more rainfall. Winds gradually relax Tuesday
night, but turn southerly again, which will steadily bring back warm
moist air into the region ahead of another cold front progged to
move into Southeast TX sometime Wednesday evening/night. Expect lows
in the upper 40s to low 50s over areas north of I-10 and in the mid
50s to low 60s over areas south of I-10.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 437 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

We`ll have Wednesday starting out with some fog near the coast, then
we`ll anticipate seeing some shower/thunderstorm development with
the help of increasing and gusty south winds and high temperatures
generally in a mid 70s to 80 range. The next cold front will rush/race
through the area Wednesday night and will be off the coast Thursday
morning. Look for low temperatures ranging from around the low to
mid 40s well inland to the low 50s near/at the coast. Our last best
chance of showers/thunderstorms for the week will accompany this front,
and expect all activity to be off the coast by noon. The strengthening
north to northwest winds behind this front will get rid of any lingering
fog near the coast, and the tight pressure gradient and may also end
up requiring a wind advisory across our barrier islands. Anticipate
high temperatures on Thursday to range from the low 50s well inland
to the low to mid 60s closer to the coast. This cooldown and associated
dry weather will then prevail across the area through Saturday night
(lows Thursday night and Friday night in the upper 20s to low 30s well
inland to around 40 at the coast, and on Saturday night mostly in the
40s - highs Friday and Saturday in the 50s). Heading into Sunday, highs
should warm back into the 70s as south to southeast winds return to
the area, and we might get to see some showers develop too.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

Onshore flow will strengthen today and tonight and seas will
gradually build as the local pressure gradient tightens ahead of a
cold front progged to move across the region late tonight into
Tuesday morning. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories have been
issued starting this evening for the bays and Gulf waters and will
continue through Tuesday afternoon. Winds will relax Tuesday
evening. Periods of sea fog may be possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Onshore flow returns and strengthens again Wednesday
ahead of another, stronger cold front. This second cold front is
expected to move across the region sometime late Wednesday into
Thursday morning. Stronger showers and thunderstorms are expected
ahead and along the front. Moreover, strong northerly winds will
develop in its wake and may produce gusts near gale strength
Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Advisories will be required
for that timeframe. Winds and seas gradually subside Friday into the
upcoming weekend (onshore flow returning Saturday).

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 437 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

Areas of patchy fog will continue to result in reduced visibilities
at times through around 14Z. Thereafter, VFR conditions expected
through tonight. Lower cigs will develop this evening into tonight
and S winds will increase to around 10-15 KTS overnight into Tuesday
morning ahead of the next cold front. Areas of SH/TS expected late
tonight into Tuesday morning as the cold front moves across SE TX
and could result in periods of lower vis/cigs at times. Chance of RA
is expected to end by early Tuesday afternoon and skies will scatter
out shortly after.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 57 74 49 / 0 50 70 0
Houston (IAH) 73 59 78 52 / 0 20 70 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 61 74 60 / 0 10 40 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from this evening through
Tuesday afternoon for GMZ330.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from this evening through
Tuesday afternoon for GMZ335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution this evening for GMZ350-355-
375.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM CST Tuesday
for GMZ350-355-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM CST Tuesday
for GMZ370.

&&

$$
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tireman4
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. MVFR ceilings will
begin to push in from the west during the early morning hours on
Tuesday and prevail throughout most of the morning tomorrow. An
approaching cold front early tomorrow morning will bring
scattered SHRA ahead and along the front, mainly from 09-18Z with
the actual front pushing through around 14-18Z. Skies will quickly
clear back to VFR behind the front on Tuesday afternoon and rain
chances will quickly drop off as well. A rare lightning strike or
two is possible NE of I-10 along the front, but coverage did not
warrant mentioning VCTS or TSRA.

Walts
Stratton20
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Tommorow looks pretty stormy actoss the area, rest of the week should be quiet, next week could get very interesting across the state
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jasons2k
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Looks like some sort of explosion near the intracoastal
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 132109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
309 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

High pressure departing today ahead of an approaching mid-level low
from the west is allowing onshore flow to return, therefore
increasing WAA and increasing temps/dewpoints as daytime highs are
expected to reach the low 70s this afternoon. By tonight, a
strengthening southerly 30-45kt LLJ will build into Southeast Texas,
increasing cloud cover, temperature/moisture advection, and wind
speeds. Overnight lows will be reached shortly after midnight
tonight until the LLJ strengthens overhead afterwards and
temperatures gradually climb overnight. Lows will only reach the
upper 50s for our northernmost counties and the low 60s elsewhere.
By sunrise on Tuesday, we`ll already be in the mid 60s with
temperatures continuing to increase with daytime heating.

By sunrise tomorrow, the previously mentioned mid-level low will
start becoming negatively tilted as it pushes through North Texas
and the Central Plains and its resultant cold front will be
approaching the Brazos Valley. For Southeast Texas, we`ll stay
fairly capped throughout the day and lack instability, but shear
will be robust. Convection will struggle ahead of the front due to
the previously mentioned limiting factors, and we can expect rain
showers. However, a few strong thunderstorms are possible along the
front with the aid of additional lift along the boundary, but no
severe storms are expected at this time. Hi-res models show isolated
to scattered showers throughout the morning for most of our CWA
until the weak frontal boundary arrives to our northwestern counties
around 6-8am, reaching the Houston-Metro area around 11am-1pm, then
pushing off the coast by 2-4pm. Skies will clear quickly in the wake
of this front along with a brief relief in 60+ degF dewpoints. This
surface front will stall offshore Tuesday evening, but quickly lift
back up as a warm front, keeping the coast cloudy and humid. This
warm front is also expected to bring favorable conditions for sea
fog formation that will start near the coast during the overnight
hours on Tuesday and gradually push inland through the early morning
hours as this warm front pushes onshore.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

I`ve gotten to pass off the initial cold front to the short term,
and the long term now begins with the in-between period on
Wednesday. For several days I`ve been advertising a pretty warm
day on Wednesday...and while I`m still expecting this, and hedging
a little above the deterministic NBM (though it`s quickly catching
on to the idea), I`ve noticed that winds look to be back to
southerly or southeasterly pretty early in the morning. Because of
this, I`ve actually toned down my forecast highs on Wednesday
just a little bit from the last day or two. Along with that, those
right on the coast may want to be on the lookout for some patchy sea
fog in the morning.

Wednesday afternoon will start to see potential for showers and
some thunderstorms emerge. However, with the incoming surface low
just moving into Western Oklahoma, and the upper trough lagging
even behind that, these PoPs will be emerging more off of the
diurnal pattern with maybe a little boost in upglide from the
onshore flow. 850 flow looks to be out of the SSW, and 700 flow
more southwesterly, I expect the cap will be pretty stout, and
we`ll be looking more at isolated to widely scattered development.
The best shot for a storm will be in the northern and northeastern
reaches of the forecast area. Whatever we do see should wane in
the evening with the loss of daytime heating, but return overnight
as the cold front attached to the surface low - now scooting into
Indiana and Ohio - drives through between midnight and 6am.
Honestly, the environment doesn`t really look any better here for
convection, but the addition of a strong mechanical lifting focus
will provide another opportunity for showers and storms as the
front drives coastward.

Rain should come to an end quite quickly after the front passes,
though continued southwest flow aloft as the upper trough shears
out and ejects may keep clouds lingering deeper into the day.
Expect gusty north winds to bring in a surge of colder air, so our
high temperatures for the day will come at midnight, as we`ll see
little to no warming during the afternoon as cold advection swamps
solar heating, then we`ll see the day`s low just before midnight
Friday. Thursday night/Friday morning lows will be plenty chilly;
falling to below freezing in the northernmost counties of our
forecast area, and below 40 degrees for all but maybe Galveston
Island. Friday night into Saturday morning, however, may be just
as cold, if not slightly colder in spots. High pressure settles
in, giving us clear sky, a light wind, and as good a setup for
radiational cooling as you can get.

With high pressure setting up over Texas through the column, we
can finally expect to turn things around Saturday as cold
advection ends and the sun can start to do some work, then
bringing temperatures back to around/just above seasonal averages
Sunday with onshore flow becoming solidly established. Speaking of
onshore flow, we should see enough moisture return that we`ll be
on the lookout for some low PoPs to emerge early next week, but
will be strongly dependent on how quickly moisture rebounds and if
there are any shortwave troughs are present to aid things along,
as we`ll be waiting beyond this forecast period for the next
well-organized disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. MVFR ceilings will
begin to push in from the west during the early morning hours on
Tuesday and prevail throughout most of the morning tomorrow. An
approaching cold front early tomorrow morning will bring
scattered SHRA ahead and along the front, mainly from 09-18Z with
the actual front pushing through around 14-18Z. Skies will quickly
clear back to VFR behind the front on Tuesday afternoon and rain
chances will quickly drop off as well. A rare lightning strike or
two is possible NE of I-10 along the front, but coverage did not
warrant mentioning VCTS or TSRA.

Walts

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

Onshore flow is expected to strengthen through the night, with
seas building as well. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories
have been issued starting this evening and carrying into Tuesday
afternoon. A few gusts may reach to around the gale threshold well
offshore near 60 NM out tonight. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will begin to increase tonight, and peak tomorrow
morning with the passage of the first of two cold fronts this
week.

In between the two fronts, expect winds to briefly veer westerly
late tomorrow, then quickly return to southeasterly by Wednesday
morning. Periods of sea fog may also develop during this time.
The best chance for more widespread and/or dense fog is likely to
come in the nighttime and early morning hours, with some
improvement likely to be seen in the afternoon. A stronger cold
front reaches the waters Wednesday night, with another round of
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Finally, expect strong north
winds to develop Thursday afternoon following the second front
with gusts potentially reaching to around gales at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 74 49 78 / 60 60 0 20
Houston (IAH) 60 78 52 78 / 20 60 0 40
Galveston (GLS) 62 71 60 72 / 0 70 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday afternoon
for GMZ330.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from midnight CST tonight
through Tuesday afternoon for GMZ335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until midnight CST tonight
for GMZ350-355-375.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM CST Tuesday
for GMZ350-355-375.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ370.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Walts
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Walts
MARINE...Luchs
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