February 2023

[Cpv17]

The CPC has us at near average rainfall and above average temps for the next two weeks.

[TexasBreeze]

We are starting to run out of time to freeze down here without the aid of having clear skies and no winds at night. It would have to be a cold closed low passing right overhead or a substantial outbreak comparable to our December one or the '21 one. Nothing in the models either.

[Ptarmigan]

The chance of freeze is less likely everyday.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
533 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 220 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023

We have a cold front moving through the region today bringing
scattered showers and some very isolated thunderstorms. There will
be streamer showers developing ahead of the front this morning with
the coverage increasing as the front approaches the area. The cold
front will enter the BCS area between 8 to 10am, then down through
the Houston Metro area around Noon, and then to the coast by 2 to
4pm. The potential for thunderstorms is best across the northern
third of the region with areas south of Lake Livingston remaining
just showers. The front may end up just stalling near the coast this
evening, then pushing back inland tonight into Wednesday morning as
a warm front. There is a 20 to 30kt LLJ developing behind the FROPA
this afternoon, so expect breezy conditions into tonight. Don`t go
putting away those umbrellas yet as showers and isolated
thunderstorms develop in the WAA behind the warm front during the
day on Wednesday. In addition will be the potential for patchy
fog, especially near the coast, that lingers through the day on
Wednesday. There will also be an approaching disturbance front the
west that will increase the coverage of the showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The
associated cold front with this disturbance will slide through our
region between midnight and daybreak Thursday.

Temperatures through the short term will be a bit of a rollercoaster
thanks to the two fronts. High temperatures today will occur just
before FROPA with the NW areas climbing into the low to mid 70s
and the SE areas getting into the upper 70s. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the low to mid 50s for most of the area (near
60 along the immediate coast where the front remains stalled).
Temperatures on Wednesday will climb back into the mid to upper
70s across the area behind the quick returning warm front. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will be determined on the second cold
fronts timing resulting in quite the gradient. Counties along the
Burleson-Houston line will be down into the low 40s, but counties
along the coast will only get down into the mid to upper 50s.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023

The cold front, and associated showers, should be in the process
of moving off the coast early Thursday morning. Clearing, breezy
and cooler conditions are expected in its wake. Once its parent
upper trough passes to the ne, a nearly zonal pattern will persist
into early next week with flat ridging stretching across the
southern Gulf and a trof/cutoff low well off the SoCal/Baja
coast. Temps will be on the cool side through Saturday...generally
running 7-12 degrees below seasonable norms. Surface high pressure
will pass to the east late Saturday which will bring a return of
onshore winds a warming trend into next week. Chances of rain look
fairly minimal thru Monday...maybe inching up as we head into
Tue/Wed depending on what the western trof decides to do. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023

A cold front will be moving through the region today crossing CLL
around 13-14z, IAH around 16-18z, and then GLS between 21-0z.
Gusty southerly winds this morning ahead of the front will be
replaced with gusty west-southwesterly wind behind the front that
will continue through sunset. Expected scattered showers
developing out ahead of the front throughout the area with limited
thunderstorm activity remaining north of UTS. MVFR CIGs between
1500 to 2500ft will develop a few hours ahead of FROPA, but
increase back to VFR after FROPA that will persist through
Wednesday morning. A warm front will move inland front the coast
Wednesday morning bringing MVFR CIGs around 2500ft to the area and
patchy coastal fog.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023

Moderate-strong sse winds have kicked seas up to 9ft at buoy
42019. Considering the fetch, they`ll probably rise another couple
feet this morning. Small craft advisories will remain in effect
for the Gulf waters and will also issue a high risk of rip
currents for area beaches. Winds should veer to the southwest this
afternoon with a weakening tail end of a dryline/frontal boundary
moves into the area. Speeds and seas should gradually diminish
later this afternoon and tonight.

Light southerly winds are anticipated overnight, and would not be
surprised to see some patchy late night & morning fog develop.
That said, conditions for periods of sea fog appear more favorable
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as winds back more to the
southeast and dewpoints climb higher. Limiting factor for the
dense variety might be wind speeds a touch too high.

A passing stronger cold front should clear things up early
Thursday morning. Hazards will shift from visibilities to 20-30kt
north winds, building seas, and the potential for low water
conditions Friday morning. SCAs look like a given, and gusts to
gale look to be a possibility Thurs & Thurs night. Slowly
improving conditions are expected heading into Saturday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 50 77 48 / 70 0 20 40
Houston (IAH) 77 53 76 55 / 70 0 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 70 60 69 57 / 60 0 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ350-
355.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...47

[jasons2k]

The wind cometh. That time of year.

[tireman4]

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023

Showers ahead of the cold front are currently pushing through
HOU, LBX, and GLS, but the front itself is over CLL and will
continue pushing southeast today. Cigs will quickly improve behind
this cold front with most sites becoming VFR by 19-20Z. Along the
coast, this front will stall and lift back north tonight,
bringing IFR/LIFR cigs/vis along the coast. Sea fog is expected to
return as well with MVFR/IFR vis pushing as far inland as I-10.
MVFR cigs will push as far north as CXO tomorrow morning. By
16-18Z, cigs will begin to improve and wind gusts will pick back
up again.

Walts

[Iceresistance]

That wind is insane! Recently had a gust over 50 mph

[Thundersleet]

I am hoping my birthday this year is frigid as well as most of March. I am not yet ready to throw in the towel on Winter. Winter of 2022-2023 has been weak for southeast Texas for a majority of time in my opinion. I accept that while at the same time I am “okay”.

[DoctorMu]

This is some super dry air with 15 mph SW winds. Temp near 80°F and DP of 31°F. 17% humidity. Welcome to El Paso or the Chihuahua Desert!

[Cpv17]

This is some super dry air with 15 mph SW winds. Temp near 80°F and DP of 31°F. 17% humidity. Welcome to El Paso or the Chihuahua Desert!

Load up on vitamin C lol better keep those immune systems strong and get some good sleep everyone!

[Stratton20]

This weather is absolutely miserable

[DoctorMu]

At least it's dry!

[Cpv17]

This weather is absolutely miserable

I woke up this morning sick lol it’s not too bad, though. I still went to work. Damn sore throat, sneezing, runny nose, stuffy headed, watery eyes, headache, and body aches. Fun stuff lol

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 man why would you go to work with those conditions haha, though that is quite the commitment, id call in for a sick day

[Iceresistance]

I had a Dust Storm today

https://youtu.be/jKa9qCJFLC0

[jasons2k]

I thought today’s weather was great. A morning shower. Afternoon sun. Low humidity. I went for a late-lunch run after the rain moved out. I grilled some filet mignons for the family for Valentines. The wind died down. Me and the misses have been sitting outside this evening, still, with a couple glasses of wine. This weather is just perfect!! It really can’t get much better than this. Especially in February. This is the kind of weather we brag about to the northerners in winter!!

[jasons2k]

My wife literally just came back outside and said “oh my God this weather is amazing”

[Stratton20]

Hit 80 today, that spring warmth was nasty, wont be long before we all are wondering when the first fall front arrives haha

[DoctorMu]

Hit 80 today, that spring warmth was nasty, wont be long before we all are wondering when the first fall front arrives haha

Wait until it's humid and 80°F.

Friday and Saturday look perfect. 50s and sunny.

The forecast could change, because it has repeatedly over the last few days, but you won't like next week.

[DoctorMu]

The 0z Ensembles are less aggressive on 80s all next week, but climo is catching up anyway.

Could be another freeze this weekend beforehand, though.