February 2023

[don]

Still looking like only a glancing blow of storms on Thursday?

Yes,except for the northern half of SE Texas (mainly north of I-10) where the cap may break.

[don]

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

The next mid-level shortwave trough will be centered over AZ/NM
early Thursday morning as it pushes east and becomes negatively
tilted over TX/OK by late Thursday evening. Ahead of this
shortwave, a 30-35kt southerly LLJ over Southeast TX on Thursday
will advect plenty of heat and moisture from the Gulf as daytime
highs heat up to the low 80s and dewpoints climb to the 70s. We`ll
stay fairly capped from 850-700mb throughout most of the day, but
from 6pm-12am, this cap begins to erode right as the cold front
arrives providing extra lift to overcome any remaining CIN over
Southeast Texas. That being said, plenty of favorable ingredients
remain in place during that evening window for severe weather
hazards of all types (tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds). Low-
level SRH values exceeding 200-400 m2/s2 along with 60+kts of
sfc-6km shear enhance other severe weather parameters with STP
exceeding 2 and supercell parameters exceeding 6. That being said,
SPC has placed most of our CWA in a Slight Risk (threat level
2/5) for severe weather on Thursday evening with areas north of
College Station in an Enhanced Risk (threat level 3/5). With this
severe weather expected to push through the evening hours when
most people are asleep, it is important to make sure you have
multiple ways to receive warnings and to have a plan in place
should you need to quickly take shelter. This front
will quickly move through with the threat for severe weather
diminishing after 3AM on Friday.

[tireman4]

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Mix of MVFR to VFR conditions expected for today. S-SW winds at 10
KTS or less this afternoon, turning S-SE this evening. IFR to MVFR
cigs are expected to redevelop tonight into Wed morning, with some
sites potentially lowering to LIFR at times. GLS/LBX may again be
affected by sea fog, thus, both cigs and vis will be lower at
those sites. For inland areas, patchy fog is possible overnight
into early Wed if winds manage to lower to 6 KTS or less. Cigs
will slowly lift mid morning Wed and fog (if any) will burn off.
Winds Wed will strengthen to 10-15 KTS with higher gusts on
occasion as the local pressure gradient tightens.

[snowman65]

OK... GFS has lost its mind

[Iceresistance]

Durant, OK is getting the Radar Tower set up!

[Cromagnum]

I see that the June bug scourge is upon us already in February.

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum no kidding, just went outside and got a nice face full of June bugs, disgusting!