February 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: February 2023

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:20 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:57 pm
That one is pretty cool, but we really don't need all those features. Simple temp and humidity will suffice, so long as they are reasonably accurate.
They make one with less features as well.

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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2023

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:27 pm

Dry line forming in West Texas. Probably going to be a bust here.

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2023

Post by jasons2k » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:23 pm

Thursday looks interesting.

We spent the weekend in Austin and Fredericksburg. Trust me, we don’t want an ice storm in SE Texas. There were down limbs all over and oaks split in half.

The weekend forecasts for Austin and the Hill Country busted by 20 degrees. It was supposed to be in the 50’s but it was in 70’s…the weather app was right all along this time.

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tireman4
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Re: February 2023

Post by tireman4 » Mon Feb 27, 2023 9:47 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 151 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

A 40-50kt LLJ overhead is around peak intensity for Southeast Texas
early this morning and will continue to push east as the next weak
cold front traverses our CWA. This front and a thin line of showers
associated with it will reach the Brazos Valley around 3-4am and
gradually push towards the Houston-Metro area around 6-8am before
stalling off the coast by 1pm. North of I-10, light NW winds will
fill in behind the front and skies will quickly clear, but closer
towards the coast and offshore, partly cloudy skies will remain as
this frontal boundary becomes more diffuse and starts to become
stationary. Therefore, winds along the coast are a little tricky and
depend on the timing of this front and how far offshore it stalls
with most island communities remaining in an onshore flow regime for
most of the day. By tonight, this front will slide back north as a
warm front, ushering in the return of onshore flow for the rest of
Southeast Texas with favorable conditions for sea fog formation
expected along the coast along with low, overcast ceilings for
inland locations. This warm front will gradually diminish across our
CWA on Tuesday morning, but warm and muggy conditions will continue.
Sea fog will hover near the coast throughout the day on Tuesday and
continue to spread further inland after sunset and through the
overnight hours.

Regarding temperatures, counties north of Conroe today will have
highs in the upper 70s, but elsewhere will be in the low 80s.
Overnight lows tonight are a little more challenging and depend on
the frontal boundary, when it returns as a warm front, and overall
cloud cover. That being said, areas north of I-10 will cool to the
low to mod 50s while areas south of I-10 will cool down to the upper
50s to low 60s. Tuesday will be another warm and humid day with most
of Southeast Texas reaching the mid 80s and coastal areas staying a
little cooler and in the upper 70s to low 80s. Onshore flow bringing
in warm, Gulf air and skies becoming mostly cloudy on Tuesday night
will help trap excess heat, so overnight lows only cool down to the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

The abnormally warm weather continues into Wednesday as WAA
persists with afternoon high temperatures climbing into the mid to
upper 80s. The southerly flow will bring PWATs up to 1.4 to 1.6
inches, which in the 90th to 99th percentile in the EC-Ensemble.
So not only with Wednesday be warm, it was also be humid with
apparent temperatures hitting 90 degrees. There will be a slight
chance of showers across Houston County Wednesday afternoon as a
weak stationary boundary sags into the area. Temperatures
Wednesday night will exceptionally warm as well with lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s - potentially breaking numerous record high
minimums.

Temperatures on Thursday will again climb into the mid 80s as the
WAA continues, but this will be the last day of 80 degree weather
in the long term. A closed upperlevel low will be moving across
the Desert Southwest Wednesday night into Thursday. This
disturbance will slide across Texas Thursday into Friday morning.
The majority of the activity for SE Texas will stay north of
Conroe Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon as precipitation
gets triggered out ahead the approaching low. The associated cold
front will move through our region late Thursday into early Friday
morning bringing with it a line of thunderstorms. This will be a
fairly quick moving cold front and should only take about 6 hours
to travel from the B-CS area to the coast. The SPC has
highlighted our area for the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms with this cold front`s passage. There will be about
1500 to 2000 J/kg CAPE across the area on Thursday with that
moist, southerly flow in place, but there will also be a pretty
strong cap in place on Thursday inhibiting thunderstorm
development. However, if that cap breaks we could see the
potential of all severe thunderstorm hazards. The cold front
should be to the east of us by daybreak Friday leaving us with
much cooler and drier conditions.

Temperatures Thursday night will dip down into the mid 40s to low
50s as CAA filters in behind the departing cold front. Friday
afternoon will get into the low to mid 60s for much of the area.
Clearing skies and lowering wind will bring temperatures down even
further Friday night with lows in the low to mid 40s for most of
the region (and even some upper 30s in Houston County). High
pressure develops over Texas Saturday bringing clear skies, low
humidity, and temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. The high
pressure begins to slide to the east on Sunday leading to a slight
warm up into the mid 70s on Sunday.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 534 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

MVFR cigs will linger for most TAF sites until a weak cold front
pushes through this morning and afternoon and VFR will prevail
afterwards. Light drizzle/rain is possible along the front
itself, but coverage didn`t warrant the mention of VCSH. The front
will continue to slow down as it pushes towards the coast with
this front expecting to stall near the coast or just offshore.
Therefore, cigs/vis will be slow to improve for coastal areas
today. This front is expected to lift back north tonight as a warm
front and bring with it IFR/LIFR cigs south of I-10 along with
sea fog. Patchy fog and IFR could lift as far north as CXO
tonight.

Walts

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Moderate southerly winds have developed this morning in the off
shore waters and in the waters off of Matagorda Bay with a Small
Craft Advisory in effect through the early morning. The Bays and
the waters off of Galveston are slightly lower, but small craft
should continue to exercise caution as there are some occasional
gusts to near 20 kts. A weak cold front is expected to approach
the coast this afternoon and then stall bringing light and
variable winds to the coast. This front will move back north
overnight tonight bringing back the southerly flow. Expect
intermittent patchy fog nightly Tuesday and Wednesday as the moist
southerly flow persists, but could start as early as Tuesday
morning for a few hours as the southerly winds begin in earnest.

A stronger cold front will move through the coastal Waters
Thursday evening into Friday morning bringing a line of showers
and thunderstorms. Strong northwesterly flow will develop in its
wake Thursday night into Friday morning bringing increasing seas
in the coastal waters. Astronomical tides are already low, so
this combined with the strong offshore winds will likely lead to
abnormally low tides on Friday.

High pressure builds in Friday night and into the weekend bringing
drier conditions to the region, so fog potential looks low this
upcoming weekend.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 52 84 68 84 / 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 56 85 70 86 / 0 0 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 64 72 67 75 / 10 0 0 10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 52 84 68 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 82 56 85 70 / 40 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 76 64 72 67 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 8 AM CST this morning
for GMZ330-335-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ350-370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Walts
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Walts
MARINE...Fowler

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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2023

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Feb 27, 2023 12:50 pm

No rain, but I'll tell you what is not a bust. A FROPA passage at 6 AM and DP down to 23°F! It feels great out there.

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2023

Post by jasons2k » Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:40 pm

Very pleasant evening on the patio!

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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2023

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Feb 27, 2023 11:42 pm

Chamber of Commerce day here in CLL. No complaints.

Stratton20
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Re: February 2023

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:02 am

NWS has me with a high of 85 tommorow, absolutely putrid🤮 perfect indoors weather though !

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snowman65
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Re: February 2023

Post by snowman65 » Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:53 am

still a bit far out but calling for rain/snow mix for my Branson trip.. I'll take that.😁

Cromagnum
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Re: February 2023

Post by Cromagnum » Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:11 am

Still looking like only a glancing blow of storms on Thursday?

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