February 2023
It wouldn’t be so bad if we could at least get some rain and lower the dew points back down into the 50’s.
Summer will be March to November this year. Book it.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I respectfully disagree lol
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
No, it won't. Don't be dramatic.
Now, I hate anything over 70 so yeah, March to November sucks for me, but I see nothing suggesting a warm fall with a weak-moderate Nino, and I don't see a scorcher of a Spring on the horizon. Warm, yeah, but 80s in February don't mean an early Summer, and 30s/40s in October don't mean an early Winter. They are events to be treated separately from the season.
Team #NeverSummer
Yeah - We had a cool Feb 2022 and a scorching summer. I'm still a little concerned about rain this Spring.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:55 pmNo, it won't. Don't be dramatic.
Now, I hate anything over 70 so yeah, March to November sucks for me, but I see nothing suggesting a warm fall with a weak-moderate Nino, and I don't see a scorcher of a Spring on the horizon. Warm, yeah, but 80s in February don't mean an early Summer, and 30s/40s in October don't mean an early Winter. They are events to be treated separately from the season.
Feast or famine regardless, right?
I think it's gonna be a rough year for plants. Freeze shock, then risk of dry spring. Summer is gonna be summer no matter what.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:51 pmYeah - We had a cool Feb 2022 and a scorching summer. I'm still a little concerned about rain this Spring.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:55 pmNo, it won't. Don't be dramatic.
Now, I hate anything over 70 so yeah, March to November sucks for me, but I see nothing suggesting a warm fall with a weak-moderate Nino, and I don't see a scorcher of a Spring on the horizon. Warm, yeah, but 80s in February don't mean an early Summer, and 30s/40s in October don't mean an early Winter. They are events to be treated separately from the season.
Feast or famine regardless, right?
Its already in the 80s and humid this week which is gross. (Yes I need to move, but it's not gonna be in the cards for awhile).MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:55 pmNo, it won't. Don't be dramatic.
Now, I hate anything over 70 so yeah, March to November sucks for me, but I see nothing suggesting a warm fall with a weak-moderate Nino, and I don't see a scorcher of a Spring on the horizon. Warm, yeah, but 80s in February don't mean an early Summer, and 30s/40s in October don't mean an early Winter. They are events to be treated separately from the season.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4481
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 221144
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
544 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Expect windy conditions through the early to mid afternoon as the
area gets sandwiched between high pressure to the east and a
developing low pressure system to the west. This will tighten the
pressure gradient over East Texas causing a strong 925mb jet, and
some of these winds will mix down to the surface causing frequent
wind gusts of up to 25 to 35mph. This LLJ will be quickly exiting to
the east, so the windy conditions will be ending for areas west
of I-45 by 1pm and then for the entire area by 3 to 4pm. A Wind
Advisory is in effect through Noon for the coastal areas due to
the frequent wind gusts, but this may get extended into the
afternoon for the counties around Galveston Bay as the higher
winds linger. A weak boundary associated with the low pressure
system to the west will enter the area this afternoon bringing a
slight chance of showers across the northern third of the area, a
temporary westerly wind shift, and drier conditions causing
clearing skies. This boundary will stall somewhere between I-10
and the coast this evening before retreating back northwards
through the night causing a return to moist, southerly flow. Light
winds tonight will lead to the potential for areas of dense fog
developing that persists into Thursday morning. There will be a
reprieve from this fog during the day on Thursday, but expect
foggy conditions to return Thursday night into Friday.
The strong southerly flow will lead to well above normal
temperatures with highs this afternoon getting into the mid to upper
80s across the area. Cloud cover on Thursday will lead to slightly
cooler conditions, but afternoon highs will still get into the low
to mid 80s. Overnight lows tonight and Thursday night will be near
record high minimums with temperatures not falling below the mid
to upper 60s for most of the area.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
A strong building mid/upper ridge over Florida will nudge
westward on Friday, pushing 500 MB heights into the 588-592 dam
range. At the surface, continued southeasterly flow will bring
both moisture advection and WAA into SE Texas. The only potential
complication in Friday`s forecast is a weak frontal boundary that
could seep into our CWA. The 12 KM NAM is particularly bullish
with bringing this frontal boundary farther south into our region.
Though the front will be pushing into a PWAT rich environment,
the strong capping associated with the ridge will keep PoPs low on
Friday. However, the presence of the front does complicate the
temperature forecast, especially over our northern counties. For
now, we have opted for Friday afternoon temps in the 70s over our
northern counties. For most of the rest of the CWA, the temp
forecast remains in the low-80s with muggy dew points. Areas near
the coast are likely to be a bit cooler in the 70s thanks to the
cool Gulf waters. Overnight lows are expected to generally be in
the 60s.
By Saturday, the weak frontal boundary should lift back to the
north. With continued ridging, onshore flow, and slightly warmer
850 MB temps, expect Saturday to be another warm and muggy day
with highs generally in the low/mid 80s (70s near the coast).
Ridging aloft is expected to start breaking down on Sunday. The
resulting cooling aloft could add enough instability to kick off a
few showers, especially over our northern counties. However, PoPs
on Sunday remain quite low. By Monday, a mid/upper trough over the
Desert Southwest is expected to eject out over the central plains.
The introduction of some modest PVA as well as the potential for
an associated surface cold front may provide the ascent we need to
induce better rainfall chances by Monday. However, the latest
global deterministic guidance continues to suggest that the bulk
of the large scale ascent will remain north of SE Texas.
Therefore, Monday`s PoPs remain modest (20-30 percent north of
I-10, 10-20 percent south of I-10).
Monday`s front could be strong enough to bring a noticeable air
mass change. Perhaps we can drop those highs down into the 70s
with much lower humidity. The drier air would also allow
temperatures to drop more at night. Therefore, we may trade our
current overnight temps in the 60s for overnight lows in the 50s.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 506 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
MVFR CIGs will continue through the mid morning for terminals west
of I-45, and then through the early afternoon for the terminals
east of I-45. GLS will have periods of IFR conditions through the
early morning hours as sea fog impacts the terminal. Strong
southerly winds of 15 to 20kts sustained with gusts to 30kts will
continue through the late morning to early afternoon, then
becoming light this evening and through Thursday morning. The
light winds combined with returning moisture will lead to the
return of low clouds and fog tonight. CIGs of 500ft or less will
impact GLS by midnight with MVFR conditions of CIGs to 1500ft
occuring up through IAH. By 9 to 11z, CIGS less than 500ft will
spread across the entire area and remain in place through the
early morning hours on Thursday. There will also be areas of dense
fog forming overnight across much of the region bringing
visibilities down to at least 3 miles with periods of periods of
visibilities below 1/2 mile. MVFR conditions with CIGs around 1500
to 2000ft will return by noon on Thursday for much of the region,
but GLS may stay in IFR conditions all day due to periods of sea
fog.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
South winds of 15 to 25 knots along with seas increasing to 6 to
10 feet are expected this morning. Winds and seas should begin to
decrease this afternoon. Though advisory level winds are expected
to end this afternoon, it may take until overnight tonight or very
early tomorrow morning for seas to drop below advisory levels,
especially for areas more than 20 NM offshore. Light to moderate
onshore flow is expected to continue through the weekend. Areas of
sea fog will be possible Thursday through the weekend. If winds
decrease enough tomorrow, then areas of sea fog will be possible
as early as Wednesday night. The best chance of sea fog will be
during the evening, overnight, and morning hours. Increasing
onshore winds are possible by late Sunday into Monday as the next
frontal boundary approaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 62 79 64 / 20 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 86 66 83 68 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 65 72 64 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ214-236>238-313-
335>338-436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ350-
355.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 221144
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
544 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Expect windy conditions through the early to mid afternoon as the
area gets sandwiched between high pressure to the east and a
developing low pressure system to the west. This will tighten the
pressure gradient over East Texas causing a strong 925mb jet, and
some of these winds will mix down to the surface causing frequent
wind gusts of up to 25 to 35mph. This LLJ will be quickly exiting to
the east, so the windy conditions will be ending for areas west
of I-45 by 1pm and then for the entire area by 3 to 4pm. A Wind
Advisory is in effect through Noon for the coastal areas due to
the frequent wind gusts, but this may get extended into the
afternoon for the counties around Galveston Bay as the higher
winds linger. A weak boundary associated with the low pressure
system to the west will enter the area this afternoon bringing a
slight chance of showers across the northern third of the area, a
temporary westerly wind shift, and drier conditions causing
clearing skies. This boundary will stall somewhere between I-10
and the coast this evening before retreating back northwards
through the night causing a return to moist, southerly flow. Light
winds tonight will lead to the potential for areas of dense fog
developing that persists into Thursday morning. There will be a
reprieve from this fog during the day on Thursday, but expect
foggy conditions to return Thursday night into Friday.
The strong southerly flow will lead to well above normal
temperatures with highs this afternoon getting into the mid to upper
80s across the area. Cloud cover on Thursday will lead to slightly
cooler conditions, but afternoon highs will still get into the low
to mid 80s. Overnight lows tonight and Thursday night will be near
record high minimums with temperatures not falling below the mid
to upper 60s for most of the area.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
A strong building mid/upper ridge over Florida will nudge
westward on Friday, pushing 500 MB heights into the 588-592 dam
range. At the surface, continued southeasterly flow will bring
both moisture advection and WAA into SE Texas. The only potential
complication in Friday`s forecast is a weak frontal boundary that
could seep into our CWA. The 12 KM NAM is particularly bullish
with bringing this frontal boundary farther south into our region.
Though the front will be pushing into a PWAT rich environment,
the strong capping associated with the ridge will keep PoPs low on
Friday. However, the presence of the front does complicate the
temperature forecast, especially over our northern counties. For
now, we have opted for Friday afternoon temps in the 70s over our
northern counties. For most of the rest of the CWA, the temp
forecast remains in the low-80s with muggy dew points. Areas near
the coast are likely to be a bit cooler in the 70s thanks to the
cool Gulf waters. Overnight lows are expected to generally be in
the 60s.
By Saturday, the weak frontal boundary should lift back to the
north. With continued ridging, onshore flow, and slightly warmer
850 MB temps, expect Saturday to be another warm and muggy day
with highs generally in the low/mid 80s (70s near the coast).
Ridging aloft is expected to start breaking down on Sunday. The
resulting cooling aloft could add enough instability to kick off a
few showers, especially over our northern counties. However, PoPs
on Sunday remain quite low. By Monday, a mid/upper trough over the
Desert Southwest is expected to eject out over the central plains.
The introduction of some modest PVA as well as the potential for
an associated surface cold front may provide the ascent we need to
induce better rainfall chances by Monday. However, the latest
global deterministic guidance continues to suggest that the bulk
of the large scale ascent will remain north of SE Texas.
Therefore, Monday`s PoPs remain modest (20-30 percent north of
I-10, 10-20 percent south of I-10).
Monday`s front could be strong enough to bring a noticeable air
mass change. Perhaps we can drop those highs down into the 70s
with much lower humidity. The drier air would also allow
temperatures to drop more at night. Therefore, we may trade our
current overnight temps in the 60s for overnight lows in the 50s.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 506 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
MVFR CIGs will continue through the mid morning for terminals west
of I-45, and then through the early afternoon for the terminals
east of I-45. GLS will have periods of IFR conditions through the
early morning hours as sea fog impacts the terminal. Strong
southerly winds of 15 to 20kts sustained with gusts to 30kts will
continue through the late morning to early afternoon, then
becoming light this evening and through Thursday morning. The
light winds combined with returning moisture will lead to the
return of low clouds and fog tonight. CIGs of 500ft or less will
impact GLS by midnight with MVFR conditions of CIGs to 1500ft
occuring up through IAH. By 9 to 11z, CIGS less than 500ft will
spread across the entire area and remain in place through the
early morning hours on Thursday. There will also be areas of dense
fog forming overnight across much of the region bringing
visibilities down to at least 3 miles with periods of periods of
visibilities below 1/2 mile. MVFR conditions with CIGs around 1500
to 2000ft will return by noon on Thursday for much of the region,
but GLS may stay in IFR conditions all day due to periods of sea
fog.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
South winds of 15 to 25 knots along with seas increasing to 6 to
10 feet are expected this morning. Winds and seas should begin to
decrease this afternoon. Though advisory level winds are expected
to end this afternoon, it may take until overnight tonight or very
early tomorrow morning for seas to drop below advisory levels,
especially for areas more than 20 NM offshore. Light to moderate
onshore flow is expected to continue through the weekend. Areas of
sea fog will be possible Thursday through the weekend. If winds
decrease enough tomorrow, then areas of sea fog will be possible
as early as Wednesday night. The best chance of sea fog will be
during the evening, overnight, and morning hours. Increasing
onshore winds are possible by late Sunday into Monday as the next
frontal boundary approaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 62 79 64 / 20 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 86 66 83 68 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 65 72 64 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ214-236>238-313-
335>338-436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ350-
355.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
Randomly pouring in northwest Cypress right now. I hadn’t been able to pay much attention to weather other than knowing it was going to be warm and muggy with almost no rain….
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4481
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
VIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Conditions should gradually improve this afternoon with VFR
conditions, mainly across all inland terminals. Skies will become
mostly sunny and winds will weaken through the next few hours from
west to southeast. Reduced visibility due to fog are expected to
continue near/at GLS this afternoon. Southerly light winds will
prevail tonight into Thursday, increasing the potential for low
visibility and ceilings. Therefore, MVFR to LIFR conditions are
expected to return overnight through the end of the TAF period.
JM
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Conditions should gradually improve this afternoon with VFR
conditions, mainly across all inland terminals. Skies will become
mostly sunny and winds will weaken through the next few hours from
west to southeast. Reduced visibility due to fog are expected to
continue near/at GLS this afternoon. Southerly light winds will
prevail tonight into Thursday, increasing the potential for low
visibility and ceilings. Therefore, MVFR to LIFR conditions are
expected to return overnight through the end of the TAF period.
JM
The Thursday front is progged to reach between Hearne and College Station. Brisk and cooler behind the front, but the SE ridge may cause it to hit the wall just north of Bryan. We'll see.
CMC and GFS on agreement of an early March FROPA. Fingers crossed.
CMC and GFS on agreement of an early March FROPA. Fingers crossed.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
though to be fair, the global models are all getting interesting around the 2nd of march timeframe, GFS cold core upper level low, CMC similar but with a mega arctic blast, Euro somewhere in the middle, fun times ahead
I noticed and posted that yesterday. Early March cold front - how cold and for how long? We'll see.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:50 pm though to be fair, the global models are all getting interesting around the 2nd of march timeframe, GFS cold core upper level low, CMC similar but with a mega arctic blast, Euro somewhere in the middle, fun times ahead
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4481
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 222133
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
333 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
A line of scattered showers will continue to move east, off of
the region this afternoon. This is in response to a mid to upper-
level shortwave and weak sfc boundary developing ahead of a weak
cold front, currently extending over north-central TX. Southerly
winds should gradually weaken this afternoon and evening as
pressure gradient relaxes. Clouds will scatter out by early this
evening; however, persistent warm and humid southerly winds and
increasing theta-e advection will bring low clouds and the
potential for fog and sea fog tonight into Thursday morning. Given
abundant moisture at low-levels, a few spotty showers and/or
light drizzle will be possible along the coast through early
morning.
The aforementioned cold front will slowly move southeastward
across our northwestern counties tonight/early Thursday, before
stalling and/or retreating back northwest during the day. This
will keep most of the region under a southerly flow regime. The
exception will be across our far northwestern counties, which will
be positioned just north of the cold front, resulting in north to
northeasterly winds and mild conditions. It will be mostly cloudy
with highs from the upper 70s to low 80s. The front will finally
move eastward Thursday night into Friday, resulting in some
showers north of the I-10 corridor at night. Elsewhere, warm and
humid southerly flow will continue to bring the potential for fog,
mainly along the coastal areas and Gulf waters through Friday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
The weak frontal boundary looming over the northern fringes of
our CWA should begin to lift north Friday morning. PWs near
1.4-1.6 inches, PVA overhead and forcing along the boundary should
help bring isolated showers to this portion of the region.
However, a stout cap still looks to remain in place overhead, so
much of the convective development during the day should be
suppressed. With the front keeping north, onshore flow and WAA
should persist through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
A mid level, 595 dam ridge over the Bahamas will also drift
westward during the week, with its influence over the weather
pattern gradually strengthening. 850mb temperatures around 14-17C
should bring highs in the 70s to lower 80s on Friday, then upper
70s to mid 80s over the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the 60s
over this same time frame.
Another upper level trough and associated surface low should spin
up over the Central Plains Sunday evening, draping another front
across the region late Sunday night into Monday morning as the
trough fills to the northeast. This front should bring showers and
thunderstorms as it passes across the region, though the
strongest of these storms look to keep well north of our area.
Global models show ample shear available in this environment,
though instability looks to be lacking. This boundary will also
bring slightly cooler and drier weather in its wake, with highs
for Monday progged in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to 50s.
Onshore flow and WAA looks to return rather quickly behind this
front as temperatures Tuesday afternoon creep towards the mid 70s
to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Conditions should gradually improve this afternoon with VFR
conditions, mainly across all inland terminals. Skies will become
mostly sunny and winds will weaken through the next few hours from
west to southeast. Reduced visibility due to fog are expected to
continue near/at GLS this afternoon. Southerly light winds will
prevail tonight into Thursday, increasing the potential for low
visibility and ceilings. Therefore, MVFR to LIFR conditions are
expected to return overnight through the end of the TAF period.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Winds have decreased this afternoon, and should become light to
moderate this evening. Elevated seas near 7 to 9 feet will be slow
to diminish, warranting the need for small craft advisories across
the Gulf of Mexico for tonight. There will also be a high risk of
rip currents across all Gulf facing beaches during this time frame
as well. Patchy sea fog is already looming nearshore this afternoon,
and should fill in across all waters overnight into the early
morning hours of Thursday. The threat of sea fog should continue
nightly all the way through Sunday morning. Increasing winds and
seas can be expected Sunday night into next week ahead of our next
frontal boundary.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 60 79 65 78 / 0 10 20 20
Houston (IAH) 65 80 67 80 / 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 65 74 64 70 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 222133
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
333 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
A line of scattered showers will continue to move east, off of
the region this afternoon. This is in response to a mid to upper-
level shortwave and weak sfc boundary developing ahead of a weak
cold front, currently extending over north-central TX. Southerly
winds should gradually weaken this afternoon and evening as
pressure gradient relaxes. Clouds will scatter out by early this
evening; however, persistent warm and humid southerly winds and
increasing theta-e advection will bring low clouds and the
potential for fog and sea fog tonight into Thursday morning. Given
abundant moisture at low-levels, a few spotty showers and/or
light drizzle will be possible along the coast through early
morning.
The aforementioned cold front will slowly move southeastward
across our northwestern counties tonight/early Thursday, before
stalling and/or retreating back northwest during the day. This
will keep most of the region under a southerly flow regime. The
exception will be across our far northwestern counties, which will
be positioned just north of the cold front, resulting in north to
northeasterly winds and mild conditions. It will be mostly cloudy
with highs from the upper 70s to low 80s. The front will finally
move eastward Thursday night into Friday, resulting in some
showers north of the I-10 corridor at night. Elsewhere, warm and
humid southerly flow will continue to bring the potential for fog,
mainly along the coastal areas and Gulf waters through Friday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
The weak frontal boundary looming over the northern fringes of
our CWA should begin to lift north Friday morning. PWs near
1.4-1.6 inches, PVA overhead and forcing along the boundary should
help bring isolated showers to this portion of the region.
However, a stout cap still looks to remain in place overhead, so
much of the convective development during the day should be
suppressed. With the front keeping north, onshore flow and WAA
should persist through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
A mid level, 595 dam ridge over the Bahamas will also drift
westward during the week, with its influence over the weather
pattern gradually strengthening. 850mb temperatures around 14-17C
should bring highs in the 70s to lower 80s on Friday, then upper
70s to mid 80s over the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the 60s
over this same time frame.
Another upper level trough and associated surface low should spin
up over the Central Plains Sunday evening, draping another front
across the region late Sunday night into Monday morning as the
trough fills to the northeast. This front should bring showers and
thunderstorms as it passes across the region, though the
strongest of these storms look to keep well north of our area.
Global models show ample shear available in this environment,
though instability looks to be lacking. This boundary will also
bring slightly cooler and drier weather in its wake, with highs
for Monday progged in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to 50s.
Onshore flow and WAA looks to return rather quickly behind this
front as temperatures Tuesday afternoon creep towards the mid 70s
to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Conditions should gradually improve this afternoon with VFR
conditions, mainly across all inland terminals. Skies will become
mostly sunny and winds will weaken through the next few hours from
west to southeast. Reduced visibility due to fog are expected to
continue near/at GLS this afternoon. Southerly light winds will
prevail tonight into Thursday, increasing the potential for low
visibility and ceilings. Therefore, MVFR to LIFR conditions are
expected to return overnight through the end of the TAF period.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Winds have decreased this afternoon, and should become light to
moderate this evening. Elevated seas near 7 to 9 feet will be slow
to diminish, warranting the need for small craft advisories across
the Gulf of Mexico for tonight. There will also be a high risk of
rip currents across all Gulf facing beaches during this time frame
as well. Patchy sea fog is already looming nearshore this afternoon,
and should fill in across all waters overnight into the early
morning hours of Thursday. The threat of sea fog should continue
nightly all the way through Sunday morning. Increasing winds and
seas can be expected Sunday night into next week ahead of our next
frontal boundary.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 60 79 65 78 / 0 10 20 20
Houston (IAH) 65 80 67 80 / 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 65 74 64 70 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
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Of course, it is gross. That still has no bearing on what Spring will bring. By mid next week, and through week 2 of March, it looks a bit below normal. Yes, the background state is still one of a weak Nina, but there's nothing that suggests a very dry Spring yet.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:48 pmIts already in the 80s and humid this week which is gross. (Yes I need to move, but it's not gonna be in the cards for awhile).MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:55 pmNo, it won't. Don't be dramatic.
Now, I hate anything over 70 so yeah, March to November sucks for me, but I see nothing suggesting a warm fall with a weak-moderate Nino, and I don't see a scorcher of a Spring on the horizon. Warm, yeah, but 80s in February don't mean an early Summer, and 30s/40s in October don't mean an early Winter. They are events to be treated separately from the season.
Team #NeverSummer
I couldn’t sleep worth a crap last night, but in the few hours I got, I had a crazy dream that it actually snowed here in March. One could only wish!
I spent a good part of the day and this evening outside in shorts. The run outside was great. Not too hot, not too cold. Can’t get understand why anyone would complain about this weather. So much better than frigid cold, and better than sweltering heat.
I saw lots of folks outside today at the park and at the courts. They were empty a few weeks ago. Total opposite today without the freezing weather. Now, there are people out and life is vibrant. The trees and plants are blooming! Happy Spring to everyone out and about and enjoying this weather! I sure am and happy it’s spring!!!
I saw lots of folks outside today at the park and at the courts. They were empty a few weeks ago. Total opposite today without the freezing weather. Now, there are people out and life is vibrant. The trees and plants are blooming! Happy Spring to everyone out and about and enjoying this weather! I sure am and happy it’s spring!!!