February 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:36 pm 12z euro gets very close to showing a winter storm setup over the state fwiw
12z CFS has a winter storm in our neck of the woods at hour 192
Sounds like a repeat of Feb 21
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

Really like the ensembles look for February and the weeklies keep February pretty dang chilly.

Could be an active first 15 days of February for us. All types of precip on the table.
Team #NeverSummer
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Montgomerycowx NBM or the national blend of models has potentially a significant ice storm in the state next week, interesting next couple of days ahead
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

Yeah, I saw that.

I'm hoping that doesn't affect me getting back to Houston next week. Until then, I'll be barreling down the backside of Peaks 6-10 in Breck this weekend, then going cross-country skiing on the divide.

I'll hopefully bring that weather back with me.
Team #NeverSummer
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

the GFS continues to see no arctic air, doesn’t make much sense to me given all the support lol, i know its typical for this to happen in models, but it just keeps all the cold air locked up north
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 9:21 am the GFS continues to see no arctic air, doesn’t make much sense to me given all the support lol, i know its typical for this to happen in models, but it just keeps all the cold air locked up north
It apparently isn’t doing too well with shallow cold airmasses.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Cpv17 I mean look at the difference at day 5 between the CMC and GFS, its ridiculous
Holy smokes the CMC has an incredibly nasty ice storm, those totals are eye popping
TexasBreeze
Posts: 942
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

So far the freezing air stays in central and north Texas on those models. The gfs doesn't have a freeze close at all. Looks like freezing rain and sleet if it were to be cold enough in future runs anyways and that is no fun!
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Freezing rain -> sleet--> snow *possible* up in CLL. We'll see.
Attachments
gem-ens_apcpn_us_32.png
gem_T2ma_us_41.png
350.png
350.png (114.29 KiB) Viewed 968 times
gem-ens_T2m_us_33.png
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

DoctorMu havent had the chance to see snow on campus, heard its a pretty amazing sight though, hope we can cash in!
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:02 pm DoctorMu havent had the chance to see snow on campus, heard its a pretty amazing sight though, hope we can cash in!
Good times!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDXFECW0J-k
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Freezing rain is going to be a major problem. It can cause power outages and streets freeze over making traveling dangerous.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

12z Canadian ensembles is ballistic, 20-21 members have a devastating ice storm across the state, and some even bring it all the way down to Se Texas
walsean1
Posts: 132
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:50 pm
Contact:

I have seen some models in pow ponder daily YouTube video showing an ice storm all the way down towards Houston area. We shall see
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

DoctorMu 00z NAM gets very close to bringing some freezing rain into our neck of the woods, temp around 34 with some precip around
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

These mesoscale models have my attention.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Cpv17 same here! 00z NAM has freezing rain in austin on tuesday, interesting next 2 or so days
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

0z CMC is very interesting.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Cpv17 yup! the setup for an ice storm is their in houston, temps just need to trend colder
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

The GFS and Euro operationals are WAYYYY too warm. Even their own ensembles are significantly colder. Could easily be 10-15 degrees colder than what the GFS/Euro operationals currently have.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Amazon [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 66 guests