March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Thundersleet
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What do all of the computer models show for this weekend and next week?
Stratton20
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Really nothing interesting around here, long range GFS does try to eventually get a system or two to dig much farther south, but its likely just another fantasy run
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Ptarmigan
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The long journey of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The video is at the link.

https://twitter.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1633199597450563586
CIRA
@CIRA_CSU
The long journey of Cyclone Freddy continues.

This incredible three week animation shows that journey.
5,483 views
1:03 / 1:03
2:15 PM · Mar 7, 2023
·
20.1K
Views
Cpv17
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davidiowx wrote: Tue Mar 07, 2023 7:58 pm Is it ever going to rain? My goodness, this is getting ridiculous
The Euro has some rain around day 9/10 but I doubt it’ll happen.
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DoctorMu
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...after the Final Four, just looking forward (or better, fast forward) to TAMU football season!
Cromagnum
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Let's just skip summer this year and go straight to fall on June 21st
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captainbarbossa19
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Spring break right around the corner. We have had some rain in Starkville, but nothing really significant yet. Looks like we'll get some rain over the next few days and possibly this weekend. Maybe some more rain towards the end of next week, but I will be back in Texas to miss the event. Honestly, March being dry for SE Texas isn't unusual though. La Nina is going away so I think later this spring will become wetter.
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tireman4
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue Mar 07, 2023 11:32 pm ...after the Final Four, just looking forward (or better, fast forward) to TAMU football season!
Or the baseball team back to Omaha?
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tireman4
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 10:49 am Spring break right around the corner. We have had some rain in Starkville, but nothing really significant yet. Looks like we'll get some rain over the next few days and possibly this weekend. Maybe some more rain towards the end of next week, but I will be back in Texas to miss the event. Honestly, March being dry for SE Texas isn't unusual though. La Nina is going away so I think later this spring will become wetter.
How are classes? You gotta keep us informed!~
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 081720
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1120 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023

3AM observations show a picture similar to that of the past several
nights, with temperatures sitting in the upper 60s/lower 70s,
widespread low clouds, and areas of fog. At times, visibilities have
approached the quarter mile mark for brief periods tonight and will
need to continue to monitor for the potential for a Dense Fog
Advisory along the immediate coast over the next few hours.

As we`ve seen recently, diurnal heating should allow for fog to
dissipate by 9-10 AM today. Minimal change to the synoptic pattern
is expected for the time being as broad surface high pressure to our
east continues to allow for a steady onshore flow. As a result, we
will see another day of temperatures above seasonal normals with
highs this afternoon breaking once again into the mid 80s for most
inland locations and the upper 70s along the coast. Conditions will
remain quite muggy as the aforementioned onshore flow pattern will
keep dew point values in the vicinity of 70 degrees for most of the
area. Overnight, another round of fog and low stratus is expected to
develop with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. However, a slight
increase in winds may inhibit the development of denser fog. HREF
members indicate the non-zero potential for an isolated streamer
shower this afternoon, but the capping inversion in place as
indicated by model soundings will be hard to overcome. Nonetheless,
a trace of rainfall at an isolated location cannot be completely
ruled out.

Thursday will start off much like today with daytime highs rising
into the mid 80s at most location. However, recent model trends
continue to depict the approach of a weak surface cold front
tomorrow night, which looks to stall out somewhere in the vicinity
of the I-10 corridor. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely
accompany the boundary to the north of the I-10 corridor, though
it`s currently tough to determine exactly how far south
precipitation may reach. The picture should become much clearer when
the 12Z suite of hires model guidance arrives later this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023

Friday morning opens with the front in the general vicinity of
I-10, and...it`s still a bit of an open question as to how much
farther it makes it from there. The main surface low looks to be
along Michigan`s southern border, and its upper support - while
potent - also looks set over the southern edge of Lake Michigan.
The upper pattern over Southeast Texas is muddled, and certainly
not indicative of a strong frontal push. The NAM, which is likely
to be about as gung-ho on a coastal push with shallow cooler air
as we head into the shoulder season for frontal passage is...not
particularly gung-ho. It really just falls in line with much of
the other deterministic guidance in bringing an increasingly
diffuse wind shift to the coast towards mid-day, with onshore
winds back in place at the coast by evening. Northerly flow will
persist longer inland, but winds will be veering up there, with
winds becoming southeasterly across the area Saturday morning, and
southerly later in the afternoon.

There`ll be some potential for showers and storms lingering into
Friday morning, but the short term really holds the best rain
chances. By Friday morning, it looks like the front will be too
diffuse, providing little focus for more than a slight chance of
some lighter showers petering out by mid-day. Because of the
better chance of preceding rain, and where some cooler, drier air
will filter in, the northern/northwestern swath of the area should
be noticeably cooler Friday, with highs down around 70 degrees.
The impact will be much more muted at the coast, where highs in
the upper 70s to around 80 can be expected. And while we`ll
probably get a break from coastal fog while winds are offshore in
the late morning and afternoon, we should expect that "fun"
feature to return along with onshore flow.

Subtle ridging should prevail aloft for most of the weekend,
setting us up for a solid warming trend for the weekend. Sunday
looks particularly warm as low level flow becomes more
southwesterly or west-southwesterly between the ridging that`s
moved off to the east, and a developing low pressure center over
the Central Plains. This continues to be a setup that signals
warmth and frequently an overperformance of the model guidance,
and the NBM median continues to show Sunday`s highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s. I don`t have the confidence to go quite that
hot, but it`s certainly plausible. Like last night, I blended some
of that median NBM with the deterministic NBM numbers to hedge
towards a warmer solution without quite selling out to our first
90s of the year.

I particularly don`t want to go too hot in the north, as frontal
timing looks a bit faster, and could start to push in from the
north at some point Sunday afternoon instead of overnight. This
compromise also keeps spots like Crockett, Huntsville,
Madisonville, and Bryan/College Station closer to 80 degrees as
the front may make it in just early enough to cut off the high end
temps there.

This Sunday front looks more substantial than the front that
opens this part of the forecast, and should be well offshore by
Monday morning. Despite that increased strength, precipitable
water is only progged to get up around 1.25 inches, and so I keep
rain chances low, and for now, I even keep thunder out of the
forecast. Where this front should flex a little harder is in
temperatures. After the well-above normal temperatures of the
weekend, we should see fair weather and a cooldown for early next
week. Let`s not get too wrapped up in just how much cooler we`re
talking here...getting down to normal temperatures should mean
lows in the 40s and lower 50s, with highs in the upper 60s and
70s. A perfectly pleasant spring-like forecast! Increasing
confidence in this is a waning in extreme percentiles and extreme
forecast index in both NAEFS and EPS ensemble data.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023

Area clouds are for the most part scattering out late this morning,
and expecting most locations to be VFR this afternoon. Coastal sites
(GLS and LBX) might be dealing with occasionally BKN/OVC MVFR to IFR
visibilities and/or ceilings. Up north, southward sagging surface
boundary is almost through Houston County, and we might see a wind
shift to the north this afternoon for UTS and CLL areas. This evening
and overnight, low clouds and fog develop once again across much of
the area (MVFR and potential IFR/LIFR levels). What develops overnight
will lift and burn off beginning tomorrow after sunrise, and expecting
VFR once again tomorrow afternoon for a majority of the area with
slightly higher (and possibly gusty) south winds.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023

Generally good wind and sea conditions should be expected thanks
to light to occasionally moderate onshore flow through late week.
However, the lighter onshore winds will also result in persistent
potential for sea fog during the overnight and morning hours
through at least Friday morning. By Friday, the chance of showers
will increase as a front approaches from the north.

There is uncertainty as to whether or not the front will move
offshore before stalling, but it appears as if a dissipating front
looks to push slightly offshore on Friday. The more a coherent front
pushes through, winds will briefly turn offshore and sea fog
potential should diminish. If the front stalls short of the coast,
onshore winds and sea fog potential will persist. Eventually,
onshore winds will return, and with it, more humid air and
potential for patchy fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 65 83 62 / 0 0 10 60
Houston (IAH) 85 68 85 67 / 0 0 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 77 69 78 69 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
Iceresistance
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CPC has a Slight Risk of heavy rain along and east of I-45 during spring break.
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DoctorMu
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The front is meandering near the northern Brazos Co. border. So tantalizingly close, but so far away.
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jasons2k
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Not that I was worried, but the risk of a freeze keeps decreasing. The next front keeps getting pushed-out, with higher temperatures.

By the way - I forgot to comment but last weekend was absolutely beautiful. Maybe next week we will have something similar with the next front.
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Ptarmigan
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Severe Tropical Storm Freddy has around 70 mph (10 minute average) or 78 mph (1 minute average) winds. Multiplied 10 minute wind by 1.14. Still trudging along.
https://severeweather.wmo.int/tc/swi/po ... 03091.meta

Code: Select all

ZCZC 339
WTIO30 FMEE 090052
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 70/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)
2.A POSITION 2023/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 39.7 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 60 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/09 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65
24H: 2023/03/10 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
36H: 2023/03/10 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
48H: 2023/03/11 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0
60H: 2023/03/11 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0
72H: 2023/03/12 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5 CI=4.5-
THE CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT IMPROVE DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER SAR DATA
RECEIVED DURING THE NIGHT (S1-A AND RCM-2 OF 1543Z AND 1551Z
RESPECTIVELY) SUGGEST THAT FREDDY WAS POTENTIALLY MORE INTENSE THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AT 18Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AN UNCERTAIN 60
KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE WHICH ARE LOW
(SATCON AT 51 KT 1-MIN AT 2222Z) AND THE SAR DATA (SUGGESTING WINDS
AT 90 KT 1-MIN AROUND 15Z-16Z LAST NIGHT)
IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE LAST FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF
IMPACT POINT POSITION BUT THE TIMING HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY DELAYED. THE
MOVEMENT OF FREDDY REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE PRESENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER AFRICA WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE STEERING FLOW ANALYZED BY THE
MODELS (LINK WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST), DIFFERENCES IN HEADING BUT
ESPECIALLY IN SPEED OF MOVEMENT ARE OBSERVED AMONGST THE AVILABLE
GUIDANCE. GFS IS EVEN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER GUIDANCE
BY BEING THE SLOWEST AND BY NOT MAKING THE SYSTEM PENETRATED WELL
OVERLAND (MINORITY SCENARIO FOR THE MOMENT). THE RSMC FORECAST
REMAINS ON A COMPROMISE WITH A LANDFALL STILL EXPECTED ON THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN ZAMBEZE AND SOFALA
PROVINCES, ON FRIDAY AT THE END OF THE DAY OR DURING THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY IS STILL IN AN AREA WITH SOME MID SHEAR
SHEAR CONSTRAINT MARKED FROM SOUTH. THIS CONSTRAINT, STILL EXPECTED
TO PERSIST TODAY, SHOULD STILL THWART ATTEMPTS TO REORGANIZE AN INNER
CORE BY TILTING THE STRUCTURE ALONG THE VERTICAL ALONG WITH DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS. FREDDY COULD LOSE AGAIN IN INTENSITY TODAY. THEN FROM
THURSDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR COULD BE LOW ENOUGH AGAIN, FREDDY COULD
MEET WARMER WATERS WITH A BETTER UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE AND THUS
INTENSIFY AGAIN AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL
ON THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS PREDICTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND
WILL DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF THE WEAKENING AND THE TIME REMAINING
BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS WEEKEND, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
LAND.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN THE MORNING OF FRIDAY OVER
ZAMBEZE PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE, FOLLOWED
BY STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HURRICANE WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER.
* DEGRADATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH A SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO BIG
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A SURGE OF ABOUT
1M TO 1M50 IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM ON THE COAST.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 100 TO 150 MM, LOCALLY 200 MM NEAR THE
CORE.
-MALAWI:
* POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO FREDDY OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL
IN THE ORDER OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS EXPECTED FOR THE MOMENT.=
NNNN
Which Wind Speed?
https://www.air-worldwide.com/publicati ... nd-Speed-/
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 091133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
533 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023

Conditions have largely remained in the persistence realm this
evening with the overall synoptic pattern continuing to promote a
steady onshore flow regime and thus the continued development of
radiation fog and widespread stratus. Tonight`s 3AM observations are
effectively identical to last night`s with many locations beginning
to indicate visibilities dropping below a mile. As such, we`ll need
to monitor for the possibility of a Dense Fog Advisory over the next
3 hours or so. Lingering fog may impact the morning commute along
and south of I-10, especially along the immediate coast. Visibility
should improve with the advent of daytime heating by around 9 AM,
though fog may continue to sit around just offshore (see Marine
section below). Not much in the way of change to the forecast for
this afternoon as breaking clouds, continued WAA, and midlevel
ridging allow for highs to reach the low to mid 80s yet again. While
it`s unlikely that we will exceed any records, it nonetheless
remains solidly warmer than seasonal norms.

Short term models continue to depict the approach of a slow-moving
cold frontal boundary that currently sits over the Dallas/Fort Worth
area. As this boundary gradually sags south throughout the course of
the day on Thursday and enters into our area on Thursday night/early
Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase along and
north of the I-10 corridor. Rainfall chances will be highest between
approximately midnight and 6 AM Friday for these locations, although
heavy rain is not anticipated. A (relatively) stronger storm or two
cannot be completely ruled out, but we do not anticipate a severe
weather threat at this time. Still some variance within short term
models as to exactly where the front will stall out, but consensus
appears to be just south of I-10. A brief northerly wind shift is
expected behind the front, which will keep temperatures a bit cooler
on Friday for those locations in its wake (mid 60s in the far north
to mid 70s in the metro).

This pattern shift will be short lived as the front washes out
overnight on Friday afternoon/evening, with the area quickly
returning to an onshore flow pattern. As such, most locations should
see lows in the 60s on Friday night/Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023

The long term forecast continues to trend more towards fair
weather - first because one chance of rain has slipped into the
short term, but also because rain chances in the area appear to
be dwindling on the Sunday/Monday front in the area. The
optimistic guidance has precipitable water progged to be only
around 1.3 inches, with most falling between there and 1 inch.
Now, to be fair, this is still above seasonal average, but strong
and persistent west/southwest flow in the 700-850 mb layer is
likely to build out a stout cap, easily "out-extreming" the
moisture profile. Outside of some stray sub-cap showers, it`s now
looking more likely that we`ll wait until late next week for our
next chance of more organized rain potential.

So, what do y`all want to talk about until then? How do
temperatures sound? After an anemic frontal passage (at best), we
should rebound back to warmth quickly after onshore flow reasserts
its dominance over the area. Highs on Saturday look to climb into
the 80s for all but the immediate Gulf Coast, with mid-80s
expected just a little bit inland on the coastal plain. Sunday
looks even toastier in that warm band, with highs pushing into the
upper 80s. Some 90 degree temps are still on the table as median
NBM highs there are still in the lower 90s.

However, I`m less confident in explicitly forecasting record highs
(and instead just hanging out in their vicinity) there, and even
in getting big heat up north at all, where I`ve continued last
night`s trend of pushing spots from Caldwell northwest to Crockett
down into the 70s. The main thing continues to be the slow creep
of a quicker cold front on Sunday. It`s now looking more likely
that highs will get cut off up north - and while we`ll likely
still see a pre-frontal temperature spike as we always do closer
to the Gulf, I feel more and more comfortable holding my highs
below 90 degrees. That`s not to say it can`t happen - I`m actually
taking a bit of a middle path, warmer than the deterministic NBM,
but still counter to the NBM probabilistic distribution, which
suggests a 40 percent chance of hitting 90 as far north as Conroe,
and up to a 70 percent chance of reaching 90 at Hobby.

So what`s a person to take away from this? There is very high
confidence of Sunday heat that will be near record values near the
coast, but far enough away from the Gulf to largely escape its
moderating effect. And though the single most likely outcome that
I have in my deterministic forecast here is in the upper 80s, the
potential to go higher than that is pretty high, and we should not
be surprised if temps were to soar above 90 in the Houston metro
and/or neighboring rural areas to the southwest.

The scenario I`m envisioning here to really fire the torch up
would be to have a front in the College Station or Huntsville area
in the mid-afternoon at the hottest part of the day, but capped
enough to prevent showers and storms from developing. This may
keep sky cover in the 40-50 percent range, allowing plenty of sun
through, and veer winds westerly enough to keep winds offshore and
slightly hotter through that modest bit of compressional heating
we tend to see with those winds. You can tell that`s several
moving parts, and why I`ve held off on explicitly forecasting so
hot...but it`s also easy to see how this hot scenario can play
out.

Once the front pushes through, though, we should see colder air
push into the area. It`s not going to be exceptionally cold - with
the main upper trough pushing into the Mid-Atlantic, the coldest
air behind this front will be far to our northeast. But, we`ll
catch enough of the incoming cold air to see temperatures knocked
back down closer to seasonal averages for roughly the first half
of next week.

Wednesday will start to signal the cycle beginning anew, though.
Surface high pressure by then will have drifted far enough east to
see the return of onshore flow, and ridging aloft will allow for a
good, mostly sunny/partly cloudy kind of day to see temperatures
push back into the upper half of the 70s for most of Southeast
Texas. Meanwhile, we`ll be looking for lee cyclogenesis in the
Central Plains to begin spinning up a new low pressure center, and
a new cold front we can look to push into our area towards the end
of the week, bringing our next shot for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023

MVFR to IFR conditions will continue to prevail for the next
several hours, as some areas of fog remain in place across the
region while widespread low stratus continues to produce cigs of
400-1000ft. Conditions should gradually improve with the advent of
daytime heating after sunrise, and VFR conditions are expected as
cigs scatter this afternoon. Tonight, another round of fog and
low stratus will develop along the immediate coast. Further north,
a cold front will approach the area, and showers/thunderstorms
will develop along the boundary beginning at approximately 07Z at
CLL and gradually sagging southward through the overnight hours.
Precipitation does not look likely south of IAH. Given uncertainty
regarding rainfall coverage, have only included VC wording for
now. This may need to be refined in subsequent updates.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023

Fog remains the name of the game early this morning - though
tonight`s sea fog has been more variable, it is still dense for
stretches on the nearshore Gulf waters, mainly around Galveston
Bay. As long as we see these conditions with humid air holding
dewpoints above water temperatures and light, onshore winds, we
can expect at least some patchy fog to continue in the nighttime
and morning hours. A weak front will approach from the north
tonight into Friday morning, but little impact to the weather
on the waters is anticipated as it is expected to be rapidly
weakening on its approach to the coast. There is uncertainty as
to whether or not the front will even progress far enough south to
push offshore before stalling.

If the front pushes through, winds will briefly turn offshore and
sea fog potential will temporarily diminish. If the front stalls
short of the coast, onshore winds and sea fog potential will
persist. Regardless, southeast winds will be in place by Friday
night, putting the marine areas in the reign of more humid air
fueling potential for another round of patchy fog Friday night
into Saturday morning. As another, stronger front approaches on
Sunday, we may see winds pick up enough to mitigate fog potential
Saturday night/Sunday morning, but at least by Monday morning once
the front sweeps through, turning winds offshore and ushering in
drier air to the waters. With the stronger front, we may see
winds and seas increase enough in the first part of the new week
to necessitate caution flags or perhaps even a small craft
advisory farther offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 63 68 61 / 0 50 20 0
Houston (IAH) 85 67 79 64 / 0 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 69 72 67 / 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Luchs
Stratton20
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La nina is officially history! Good riddance, you wont be missed! Heres to a quiet hurricane season with hopefully more precipitation in the summer and winter months
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:05 pm La nina is officially history! Good riddance, you wont be missed! Heres to a quiet hurricane season with hopefully more precipitation in the summer and winter months
I like busy hurricane seasons. Much more exciting. I like tracking storms. I would prefer a weak cane or strong tropical storm into Matagorda giving me about 10” of rain.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I don't mind hurricanes, they are fun to track, as long as they stay well away from our neck of the woods, looks to be a below average hurricane season this year, but given the last 3 season have been decently active, its no surprise we finally get a quieter season with la nina finally getting the boot
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sambucol
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Will La Niña affect our fall/winter ?
Stratton20
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sambucol la nina is already gone, just will take a while for the background state / atmosphere to respond to that change as we are currently in ENSO neutral, EL nino will be here by the peak of hurricane season and will be well established by winter
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