March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 222010
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
310 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

A warm and humid airmass is in place as onshore flow continues to advect
low-level moisture into southeast Texas. There will be breaks in the cloud
cover during the aft and eve hours, especially near the coast today. Not
much chance of showers through Thursday night as the subsidence inversion
currently centered around 700mb is strengthening and will be just above
the surface tomorrow afternoon, resulting in a shallower low-level moist
layer. We are likely to see a little more sun tomorrow aft with mixing across
the area given the shallower moist layer.

Tomorrow looks warmer than today with max temps in the mid 80s for well
inland locations. Min temps Thu night/Fri morning will be well
above normal as well, only falling into the lower 70s out ahead of the
approaching cool front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

A shortwave trough will start to push through the Southern
Central Plains on Friday, bringing a dryline first to our area and
eventually a cold front that will push southeast towards the
coast. We can expect showers and storms along the dryline
approaching the Brazos Valley around mid-morning with additional
isolated showers throughout the rest of SE TX associated with the
SSW LLJ overhead and isentropic lifting. The front itself arrives
after lunch time, but better ingredients for severe weather remain
just east of our area towards East TX and the Mississippi River
Valley. However, we still can`t rule out a few strong to severe
thunderstorms for our area in the afternoon as the cap erodes and
lifting along the dryline invigorates convection past the CIN in
place. Therefore, SPC has placed areas northeast of Columbus in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather and areas east of Livingston in a
Slight Risk. Westerly winds early Saturday morning quickly veer
back around to the southeast by late Saturday evening, ushering in
the return of warm and humid air. Afterwards, a warm front is
expected to push inland from the Gulf on Sunday afternoon and into
Monday bringing isolated to scattered showers throughout the day.
This frontal boundary will remain weak and diffuse Monday through
Tuesday as PVA from southwesterly flow aloft helps invigorate
isolated rain showers each day.

In other news, this is my last forecasting shift at HGX. Thank
you for everything <3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

MVFR ceilings will lift this afternoon then return this evening
and persist through much of Thursday morning. Breezy southerly
winds will continue, subsiding some overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

Onshore winds have diminished while seas have slowly subsided this
afternoon. Patchy sea fog possible in our nearshore waters tonight
and tomorrow night until the next cold front arrives on Friday.
Continuous gentle to moderate onshore flow will keep rip current
risks elevated each day, so rip current statements will most
likely be needed each day through Friday. The next front is
expected to arrive to our coastal waters on Friday evening with
winds becoming southwest, west, and north on Friday and Saturday
before quickly becoming southeasterly again by Saturday night.
Rain chances return Saturday night and Sunday as a warm front
pushes in from the Gulf, bringing isolated to scattered rain
showers.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 84 71 80 / 10 10 10 60
Houston (IAH) 68 84 71 81 / 10 10 10 80
Galveston (GLS) 67 76 68 76 / 10 10 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....Walts
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Walts
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jasons2k
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Not too impressed with tomorrow’s system…
Stratton20
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Severe stuff should stay well to our north and east, good!
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:46 am Severe stuff should stay well to our north and east, good!
It will be more our direction in April.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 unfortunately, i used to be fascinated with severe weather , not so much anymore after driving through some cities over the past few years and seeing some of the damage left behind by these severe storms, though i wouldn’t mind seeing a tornado in an open field, that would be pretty neat to watch
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Conditions have improved to VFR across the area this afternoon,
although gusty south winds are expected to prevail for the
remainder of the day today. Gusts at times could reach as high as
30 knots. Conditions will deteriorate overnight as the
aforementioned south winds continue to bring Gulf moisture into
the area, allowing for the development of MVFR and later IFR cigs
area-wide. Some sea fog resulting in IFR visibility is also
possible along the immediate coast. Tomorrow, conditions look to
remain within low-end MVFR to IFR thresholds as prevailing cigs
stick around into the afternoon. As a boundary approaches the area
tomorrow afternoon, chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
will increase.

Cady
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:46 am Severe stuff should stay well to our north and east, good!
Hey, not everyone is in the Houston area right now. There are some people currently living in the direction you mentioned. :) I know the risks studying here though and I can't say that I'm not going to enjoy tracking storms tomorrow.
Cpv17
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 3:56 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:46 am Severe stuff should stay well to our north and east, good!
Hey, not everyone is in the Houston area right now. There are some people currently living in the direction you mentioned. :) I know the risks studying here though and I can't say that I'm not going to enjoy tracking storms tomorrow.
Mississippi gets hammered left and right. No shortage of action living there.
Cromagnum
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It's not like the springs I remember as a kid where we would get lots of thunderstorms. Nowadays there is always a strong cap in place and storms don't get going until they are in East Texas or Louisiana.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 6:35 pm It's not like the springs I remember as a kid where we would get lots of thunderstorms. Nowadays there is always a strong cap in place and storms don't get going until they are in East Texas or Louisiana.
Even for Texas, increasingly, it is feast or famine. Flood or drought.

Severe weather threats through April have shifted sooner and more southeast. LA, MS, AL, TN are the new Tornado Alley. We usually don't see the energy from CLL and southeast as often as 30 years ago to generate more frequent showerd.. Rain chances here have sunk from 80% to 50%.

You know the drill: Broken. Line. Of. Showers.
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