March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 222010
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
310 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

A warm and humid airmass is in place as onshore flow continues to advect
low-level moisture into southeast Texas. There will be breaks in the cloud
cover during the aft and eve hours, especially near the coast today. Not
much chance of showers through Thursday night as the subsidence inversion
currently centered around 700mb is strengthening and will be just above
the surface tomorrow afternoon, resulting in a shallower low-level moist
layer. We are likely to see a little more sun tomorrow aft with mixing across
the area given the shallower moist layer.

Tomorrow looks warmer than today with max temps in the mid 80s for well
inland locations. Min temps Thu night/Fri morning will be well
above normal as well, only falling into the lower 70s out ahead of the
approaching cool front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

A shortwave trough will start to push through the Southern
Central Plains on Friday, bringing a dryline first to our area and
eventually a cold front that will push southeast towards the
coast. We can expect showers and storms along the dryline
approaching the Brazos Valley around mid-morning with additional
isolated showers throughout the rest of SE TX associated with the
SSW LLJ overhead and isentropic lifting. The front itself arrives
after lunch time, but better ingredients for severe weather remain
just east of our area towards East TX and the Mississippi River
Valley. However, we still can`t rule out a few strong to severe
thunderstorms for our area in the afternoon as the cap erodes and
lifting along the dryline invigorates convection past the CIN in
place. Therefore, SPC has placed areas northeast of Columbus in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather and areas east of Livingston in a
Slight Risk. Westerly winds early Saturday morning quickly veer
back around to the southeast by late Saturday evening, ushering in
the return of warm and humid air. Afterwards, a warm front is
expected to push inland from the Gulf on Sunday afternoon and into
Monday bringing isolated to scattered showers throughout the day.
This frontal boundary will remain weak and diffuse Monday through
Tuesday as PVA from southwesterly flow aloft helps invigorate
isolated rain showers each day.

In other news, this is my last forecasting shift at HGX. Thank
you for everything <3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

MVFR ceilings will lift this afternoon then return this evening
and persist through much of Thursday morning. Breezy southerly
winds will continue, subsiding some overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

Onshore winds have diminished while seas have slowly subsided this
afternoon. Patchy sea fog possible in our nearshore waters tonight
and tomorrow night until the next cold front arrives on Friday.
Continuous gentle to moderate onshore flow will keep rip current
risks elevated each day, so rip current statements will most
likely be needed each day through Friday. The next front is
expected to arrive to our coastal waters on Friday evening with
winds becoming southwest, west, and north on Friday and Saturday
before quickly becoming southeasterly again by Saturday night.
Rain chances return Saturday night and Sunday as a warm front
pushes in from the Gulf, bringing isolated to scattered rain
showers.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 84 71 80 / 10 10 10 60
Houston (IAH) 68 84 71 81 / 10 10 10 80
Galveston (GLS) 67 76 68 76 / 10 10 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....Walts
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Walts
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jasons2k
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Not too impressed with tomorrow’s system…
Stratton20
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Severe stuff should stay well to our north and east, good!
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:46 am Severe stuff should stay well to our north and east, good!
It will be more our direction in April.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 unfortunately, i used to be fascinated with severe weather , not so much anymore after driving through some cities over the past few years and seeing some of the damage left behind by these severe storms, though i wouldn’t mind seeing a tornado in an open field, that would be pretty neat to watch
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Conditions have improved to VFR across the area this afternoon,
although gusty south winds are expected to prevail for the
remainder of the day today. Gusts at times could reach as high as
30 knots. Conditions will deteriorate overnight as the
aforementioned south winds continue to bring Gulf moisture into
the area, allowing for the development of MVFR and later IFR cigs
area-wide. Some sea fog resulting in IFR visibility is also
possible along the immediate coast. Tomorrow, conditions look to
remain within low-end MVFR to IFR thresholds as prevailing cigs
stick around into the afternoon. As a boundary approaches the area
tomorrow afternoon, chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
will increase.

Cady
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:46 am Severe stuff should stay well to our north and east, good!
Hey, not everyone is in the Houston area right now. There are some people currently living in the direction you mentioned. :) I know the risks studying here though and I can't say that I'm not going to enjoy tracking storms tomorrow.
Cpv17
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 3:56 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:46 am Severe stuff should stay well to our north and east, good!
Hey, not everyone is in the Houston area right now. There are some people currently living in the direction you mentioned. :) I know the risks studying here though and I can't say that I'm not going to enjoy tracking storms tomorrow.
Mississippi gets hammered left and right. No shortage of action living there.
Cromagnum
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It's not like the springs I remember as a kid where we would get lots of thunderstorms. Nowadays there is always a strong cap in place and storms don't get going until they are in East Texas or Louisiana.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 6:35 pm It's not like the springs I remember as a kid where we would get lots of thunderstorms. Nowadays there is always a strong cap in place and storms don't get going until they are in East Texas or Louisiana.
Even for Texas, increasingly, it is feast or famine. Flood or drought.

Severe weather threats through April have shifted sooner and more southeast. LA, MS, AL, TN are the new Tornado Alley. We usually don't see the energy from CLL and southeast as often as 30 years ago to generate more frequent showerd.. Rain chances here have sunk from 80% to 50%.

You know the drill: Broken. Line. Of. Showers.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:01 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 6:35 pm It's not like the springs I remember as a kid where we would get lots of thunderstorms. Nowadays there is always a strong cap in place and storms don't get going until they are in East Texas or Louisiana.
Even for Texas, increasingly, it is feast or famine. Flood or drought.

Severe weather threats through April have shifted sooner and more southeast. LA, MS, AL, TN are the new Tornado Alley. We usually don't see the energy from CLL and southeast as often as 30 years ago to generate more frequent showerd.. Rain chances here have sunk from 80% to 50%.

You know the drill: Broken. Line. Of. Showers.
Changes coming in April, I believe. Hang in there.
Iceresistance
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Yesterday, I got 2.5 inches and a brief hailstorm of peas.

And last night, I got .6 more, which means I ended up with 3.1 inches of rain.

Goodness. :shock:
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 240916
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
416 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Broad area of surface low pressure developing across north Texas
ahead of advancing mid/upper trof to the west. Showers/tstms
stretching along sw-ne axis across West Texas into Oklahoma. The low
will trek northeastward across Arkansas today and into the Ohio
Valley tonight. As it does so, dryline to our west will slowly make
it into the region.

Strong low level jet is feeding moisture into the area. However,
ongoing convection to the west will begin encountering a less
unstable environment with some capping as it approaches western
parts of the region in the late morning hours. Would anticipate
intensity to be quite a bit weaker and more in the form of showers.
Cannot totally rule out an embedded tstm or two during the afternoon
as the cap weakens some inland, but overall significant tstm chances
appear to be quite low as the better dynamics, instability and push
should be northeast of the region. Precip should make it toward the
I-45 corridor toward lunch time and eventually off to the east of
the CWA 4-6pm. Though most areas north of I-10 will see some
rainfall, amounts will be meager...probably <0.15"...and some areas
across our sw zones and coast might be lucky to see enough to wet
the ground.

Drier air will gradually filter in from the west this evening and
overnight...moreso inland areas than coastal locations. Will
probably see some fog develop there until surface high pressure from
Mexico gives the drier air a push offshore toward morning.
Comfortable overnight temps are anticipated inland.

Saturday should be a nice, very dry day. Combination of low
dewpoints and plenty of sun will lead to effective heating...and
will be advertising a record high for Galveston (81/2017). Saturday
night will be quite comfortable across the board, but don`t get used
to it...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Roughly seasonable conditions should prevail through the first
half of the new week...and though it`s not really due to a
stagnant weather pattern, the frequent back and forth of very weak
fronts...if one even wishes to dare to call them fronts...won`t
let us see big changes in the amplitude of the pattern before we
shift slightly another way. Perhaps the "biggest" of the shifts
will be in overnight lows, which should dip into the 50s for all
but the coast when more continental, drier air filters in,
particularly Tuesday night into Wednesday. Prior to that, while
those far inland should still drop below 60, a warmer and more
humid marine airmass is expected to keep overnight temps in the
60s.

The back and forth of boundaries should provide us multiple
opportunities for some showers and a handful of thunderstorms in
the first half of the week. Sunday should be the first - and
likely best - opportunity to open the week. However, we see PoPs
push up again Monday afternoon and evening, and again Tuesday
afternoon. In most cases, any rain should be fairly light, with
rain totals below half an inch. But, of course, getting caught
under storms will result in locally higher totals. I wouldn`t
anticipate excessive rain as available moisture is not
significantly above climatological norms and the Euro Extreme
Forecast Index remains solidly below 0.5, but with ensemble mean
progged precipitable water climbing above 1.25 inches, any storms
could at least push spots underneath them higher than the broader
averages.

After a bunch of little changes, we finally see a higher
amplitude change begin to settle in for the back half of next
week. Ridging takes command through the bottom half or so of the
atmosphere, with a 500 and 700 mb ridge setting up around the
northern edge of the Yucatan, and 850/surface ridging setting up
around Florida and the adjacent Atlantic. Particularly standing
out is that the 500 mb heights in this ridge rise to 588 dm in the
deterministic Euro. That`s not quite a beefy summer ridge, but
it`s certainly close enough to provoke summery thinking. I note
the deterministic Euro here because the "stereotype" for it is
that it tends to really like beefy mid-level ridges, and if that`s
what develops, it`s probably showing a more plausible scenario of
the outcome. Its ensemble tends to suggest this as well, with 90th
percentile 850 mb temperatures emerging later in the week,
suggesting a shot at some unseasonable warmth. Making things even
a little more suggestive, the median NBM (not its post-processed,
`deterministic` version) puts highs distressingly near or slightly
above 90 late next week.

True to its stereotype as well though, the GFS (and the NAEFS
mean) is a little lower amplitude and a little more progressive
here, and does not suggest abnormally hot temperatures beginning
to emerge. Because we`ve got some pretty solid spread in the
guidance at this long range...I hedge a little towards heat by
putting highs between the deterministic and median NBM numbers,
but still keep things below 90 degrees area-wide. As we move into
the new week, hopefully increased confidence will allow us to
sharpen up the details on this forecast more.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

MVFR conditions this morning. A 40-50kt ssw low level jet will
probably start mixing down more after sunrise and produce some 20-
25kt gusts into the afternoon. A band of showers should track in
from the west late this morning and move across most SE TX terminals
in the 17-21Z timeframe. Cannot completely rule out a rogue
embedded tstm, but chances are low. Skies clear behind the band of
precip...with the exception of maybe the southern terminals (ie
Hobby southward) where drier air will be slower to move in. Some fog
development is possible there overnight - eventually clearing in the
9-12z period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Though patchy fog is being observed late tonight, visibility
reductions are quite modest. Instead, gusty onshore winds and
elevated seas are now taking center stage. Small craft will need
to exercise caution on the nearshore waters, and a small craft
advisory is in place for the offshore waters through this evening.
Though winds may begin to gradually relax and veer off their
long, persistent fetch slightly, seas will take a little longer to
subside.

A weak front will make its way into the waters late
tonight or early Saturday morning. Winds will become more
westerly, briefly becoming northerly Saturday morning behind the
front. Onshore winds will quickly resume by Sunday as a warm front
tracks back northward and inland.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Sunshine and warm temperatures combined with low dewpoints will
yield to RH`s bottoming out in the teens and low 20`s on Saturday.
Wind speeds will be below Red Flag Warning criteria...but just
passing it along for situational awareness for those with any burn
plans.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Three record high minimum temperatures were broken or tied
yesterday around the area. College Station tied its record of 72,
last seen in 1933. Both Houston sites broke their record high
minimum temperature for the day. IAH only fell to 71, breaking its
record of 70 from 1995. Hobby only reached 72 degrees, which also
broke its record of 70 from 2020.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 53 81 54 / 60 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 60 85 55 / 70 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 64 83 65 / 30 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Luchs
Stratton20
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60% rain chance by NWS, nothing on radar, big fat nothing burger, surprise surprise
Cromagnum
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Mar 24, 2023 10:10 am 60% rain chance by NWS, nothing on radar, big fat nothing burger, surprise surprise
It's suppose to get going this afternoon isn't it?
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DoctorMu
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Maybe a few sprinkles later. There's a weak line forming near Austin.

Largely a bust here. Less so in HOU later this afternoon. I would not count on more than 0.1-0.3 in of rain, though.


Next.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Mar 24, 2023 10:31 am
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Mar 24, 2023 10:10 am 60% rain chance by NWS, nothing on radar, big fat nothing burger, surprise surprise
It's suppose to get going this afternoon isn't it?
Nah, not so much in southeast TX. More so north and east of here. Not sure why the rain chances are so high. Should be maybe 30-40% at most. A lot of us won’t see anything.
Stratton20
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Just a few light rain showers on the radar, nothing remotely heavy, next
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DoctorMu
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So. Weak.
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tireman4
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Meanwhile, to our East....
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