March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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Not a drop. Every single cell went around me.
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jasons2k
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Nothing here. Next.
Cpv17
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There was a severe thunderstorm warning in Wharton County last night around 2am but nothing at my house. My friend in Deer Park said they had golf ball size hail.
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jasons2k
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Here it comes…
Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281716
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will
continue to develop across the coastal counties through sunrise, but
will shift to the east as a boundary exits - though it won`t go far
as it will stall in the coastal waters through the next several
days. Despite the front pushing through SE Texas today, lingering
upper level moisture will cause partly to mostly cloudy skies
through Wednesday morning. Returning low level moisture and a weak
passing shortwave aloft will bring the return for isolated showers
and very isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening with
areas west of I-45 having the best chance for storms.

Temperatures today will be slightly cooler compared to yesterday
with highs this afternoon in the low to mid 70s and low tonight in
the low 50s north of Huntsville, mid 50s along I-10, and then low
60s along the immediate coastline. Lingering cloud cover and
scattered showers will keep afternoon temperatures in the low 70s on
Wednesday, but returning southeasterly flow will bump low
temperatures up Wednesday night back up into the mid to upper 50s
for most of the area and low to mid 60s along the coast.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

The southeasterly flow will increase on Thursday as an upper level
low digs down through the Four Corners region. Isolated afternoon
showers will be possible in Southeast Texas as this flow brings
increasing moisture to the region, though coverage will be less
compared to Wednesday as we get a weak ridge building aloft. The
previously mentioned disturbance in the west will spawn a surface
low over the Northern Plains on Friday with the associated cold
front pushing through Friday night into Saturday morning. The best
dynamics for thunderstorms will remain north of our region, but
cannot out-rule some thunderstorms developing north of
Huntsville. The southern section of the cold front gets cutoff
from the passing low pressure system becoming a stationary front
in the coastal waters on Saturday, but will move northwards into
SE Texas Saturday night into Sunday bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This front continues its northwards motion for
Monday ushering in hot and humid weather for the area.

Temperatures on Thursday will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer
compared to Wednesday thanks to the southeasterly flow with highs
climbing into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The warming trend
continues on Friday as southerly flow increases ahead of the
approaching front bringing temperatures into the low to mid 80s.
The front pushes through Friday night, but don`t expect much if
any cool down as it quickly returns Saturday. So, the mid 80s will
continue through Sunday. The persistent southerly flow into Monday
means we could climb into the 80s Monday afternoon with some spots
potentially hitting 90 for the first time this year.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Mostly cloudy skies and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the TAF period. Gusty northerly winds this afternoon
will relax after sunset, becoming light to moderate this evening.
Winds should become northeasterly Wednesday morning, veering E/SE
heading into Wednesday afternoon.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

A cold front will push offshore this morning. Continued shower
and thunderstorm activity is likely during the morning hours as a
result. A few thunderstorms could be strong. Locally strong wind
gusts and hail are the primary concerns. Patchy fog will also be
possible this morning in the nearshore waters immediately ahead of
the front. Moderate to strong north to northeast winds and
building seas will develop in the wake of the front. Small craft
advisory level winds are expected today into tonight. Winds slowly
decrease tonight and Wednesday. Southeast winds resume late on
Wednesday and gradually swing around to the south at the end of
the week. Caution flags are anticipated, and advisories might be
needed. Over the weekend, another cold front may push into the
region and stall offshore. Lower winds and lighter seas are
anticipated.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 53 70 56 / 0 20 20 0
Houston (IAH) 75 57 71 58 / 10 20 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 61 69 65 / 50 20 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:03 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:45 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:19 pm

Gonna have to wait till at or slightly after midnight before storms are supposed to start popping.
The radar is redefining weak line of showers west of Waco.

A trace of rain here in CLL, then supercells again in LA, MS, AL.
El Niño is coming. Bound to rain eventually and more than likely will be a flood of epic proportions.
That'll be next winter. ;)
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DoctorMu
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71°F DP 35°F NW15 mph Sunny. 8-)

Man, it doesn't get much better than this.

That's the thing I miss from NC. Every spring and fall there are extended periods like this, interspersed with rain - usually an inch or so then out.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:44 pm Here it comes…
Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90.
This part is worse: Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Well, ****!!!
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DoctorMu
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Greensboro, NC for Monday:

Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 44.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 74.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:54 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:03 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:45 pm

The radar is redefining weak line of showers west of Waco.

A trace of rain here in CLL, then supercells again in LA, MS, AL.
El Niño is coming. Bound to rain eventually and more than likely will be a flood of epic proportions.
That'll be next winter. ;)
La Niña is gone. Things are neutral now and El Niño will be here soon from what I hear. Latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 look decent for rain. Next week looks active after Monday. Next Tuesday and Wednesday look dangerous for the southern plains.
Cromagnum
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Really hope I get something from this blob moving in from the west.
davidiowx
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:02 pm Really hope I get something from this blob moving in from the west.
Come on!
Cromagnum
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Meh. Everything evaporated before it got here. I'm sure that's gonna be the story all week, and then it will ran its *** off on Friday just because I have a funeral to attend.
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tireman4
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FXUS64 KHGX 291109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
609 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

A combination of a weak short wave moving through the region and
increasing low level moisture (PWATs up to around 1.2") will lead to
scattered rain showers through this afternoon. These showers will be
light producing maybe up to a few hundredths of an inch. The shower
activity ends by sunset, but this break will be brief as there will
be a slight chance of showers on Thursday. A large trough will be
digging down through the Four Corners region on Thursday, and while
this system will not be bringing precipitation to our area (just
yet) it will tighten the pressure gradient over Texas as a high
pressure builds over the Eastern Seaboard. So, Thursday in SE Texas
will see breezy southerly winds bringing PWATs up to 1.6". Some
streamer showers may develop Thursday afternoon in this increasingly
moist southerly flow, especially for areas west of I-45 where
moisture will be higher.

Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected today with
afternoon high temperatures in the low 70s expected, but this below
normal weather won`t last long. Low temperatures tonight will be
slightly above normal as the winds become southeasterly with
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s north of I-10, and then low to
mid 60s from I-10 to the coast. The more southerly flow on Thursday
will bring afternoon temperatures into the upper 70s and then lows
Thursday night into into the upper 60s to low 70s area wide (just a
couple of degrees shy of record high minimum temperatures).

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

A deep layer trough and associated mid/upper jet will eject from
the Intermountain West into the central and northern plains on
Friday. This mid/upper feature will induce a lee side low pressure
system over Kansas and Nebraska. Meanwhile, surface high pressure
will remain in place over the southeastern United States. The
steepening gradient between the two systems will enhance moist
southerly flow in our neck of the woods, increasing both
temperatures and dew points. Most inland areas are forecast to
warm into the mid-80s on Friday. Upper-70s to low-80s are more
likely near the coast.

A cold front associated with the aforementioned low will push
southward into southeast Texas by Friday evening and night. Most
of the large scale ascent associated with the system is likely to
remain well to our north. However, the front may provide enough
lift to spark off isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity, especially over our northern counties. Uncertainties
exist regarding how far south these showers and storms will
extend. PoPs peak Friday afternoon and evening to the 40-60
percent range in our far northeastern counties, 30-40 percent
Brazos Valley, ~20 percent for the I-10 corridor, and only about
10 percent near the coast.

Despite the passage of a "cold" front, the weekend continues to
appear warm with most areas topping 80 degrees. Winds may briefly
turn to the west to west-northwest on Saturday before onshore flow
returns by Saturday night into Sunday. Early next week continues
to look quite warm. Onshore flow will bring in the humidity.
Strong SW 850 MB flow is expected to particularly enhance WAA at
that level. Global models are in strong agreement that 850MB temps
on Monday and Tuesday will surge above 20C and possibly even
approach 25C over our western counties on Tuesday. With sufficient
afternoon mixing, this will translate to high temperatures at
least in the mid/upper 80s. Current temp grids show widespread
inland highs in the upper-80s with a few spots reaching 90!

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with easterly
winds becoming southeasterly winds around 5 to 10kts. Scattered
showers will be possible across the area through this afternoon
producing occasional variable winds. Ceilings will begin to lower
to 1500 to 2500ft late this evening into early tomorrow morning
from south to north. MVFR conditions will start at GLS and LBX
around 4 to 5z, IAH around 8z, and then CLL around 9 to 10z. These
MVFR conditions will persist through Thursday.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Moderate to strong east-northeast winds this morning are expected
to veer east to east-southeast by this afternoon. Small craft
advisory conditions are expected offshore through at least mid-
afternoon and potentially through this evening. Winds will be
somewhat weaker and from the southeast on Thursday. Winds veer to
the south and could reach small craft criteria once again by
Friday as a front approaches. Weaker winds are expected by
Saturday. However, increasing onshore flow is expected to return
by Sunday into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 56 78 69 / 30 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 72 58 77 70 / 40 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 70 65 75 70 / 30 0 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Cloudy skies and VFR conditions should prevail throughout the
remainder of the day. E/NE winds will become E/SE late this
afternoon while isolated showers taper off. MVFR CIGS will begin
to build in from the southwest shortly after midnight, spreading
to the rest of SE Texas during the early morning hours of
Thursday. Isolated showers and gusty SE winds develop across the
region late Thursday morning with MVFR CIGS persisting into the
afternoon.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 301118
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
618 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Hope you were able to enjoy the bit of sun we got the past couple of
days, cause cloudy skies are in the forecast for the rest of the
week. Southerly flow will increase today as the region gets
sandwiched between high pressure off the East Coast and a developing
low pressure system exiting off the Rocky Mountains tightening the
pressure gradient over Texas. This southerly flow will not only
bring mostly cloudy skies, but also warming temperatures. High
temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, and
then into the low to mid 80s for Friday afternoon. There will be a
chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon thanks
to the increasing moisture and daytime heating with the highest
coverage of precipitation occurring west of I-45. Overnight lows
tonight will be in the low 70s for most of the region, which
approaches high minimum records. Some isolated showers are possible
on Friday, but Friday`s weather will be rather benign during the day
with just breezy southwesterly winds and overcast skies expected.

The previously mentioned developing low pressure system will
progress eastward through the day on Friday into the Upper Midwest.
The southern end of the associated cold front will move through SE
Texas Friday evening/night. The best dynamics for thunderstorms are
well north and east of our region, but there is a chance for
isolated strong thunderstorms developing along the cold front for
parts of our area. SPC has placed areas generally north of
Huntsville in a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms
with the main threat being strong, gusty winds. The cold front
should be past the coast by daybreak Saturday (though it will make a
return as a warm front, but more on that in the long term). There
will be quite the spread in overnight low temperatures Friday night
thanks to the cold front`s passage. Temperatures will dip down into
the low 50s across Burleson to Houston counties, low to mid 60s for
the areas along the I-10 corridor, and then upper 60s along the
coast.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

The aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to stall offshore
on Saturday. Light northerly flow is expected behind the front.
However, we are not anticipating much CAA in the front`s wake.
We should accomplish a meaningful reduction in the dew points.
The current blend used in our grids is showing Saturday afternoon
dew points in the 40s along and north of I-10, 50s south of I-10,
and around 60 degree dew points at the coast. So at least the
humidity will be low. But the temperatures are still expected to
be toasty with highs averaging in the mid-80s inland (upper-80s in
a few spots?) and around 80 at the coast. Northern most counties
could be a few degrees cooler.

Onshore flow returns on Sunday as our once stalled frontal
boundary offshore lifts northward as a warm front. This flow from
the Gulf will result in increasing dew points. As low level
moisture increases, a weak shortwave is expected to introduce some
PVA over our region. Therefore, Sunday is expected to feature
more clouds with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temps are forecast to be a few degrees cooler on Sunday due to the
clouds. However, Sunday is also expected to be more muggy.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look quite warm. Due to model
discrepancy regarding the exact positioning of a mid/upper trough
to our northwest, there has been increasing uncertainty regarding
the 700MB and 850MB flow. There remains decent consensus that
surface winds will be from the south to south-southeast. There is
less consensus regarding the 850MB and 700MB wind direction. The
more southwesterly the winds are aloft, the warmer it will be. A
more southerly wind aloft would not be as warm. Worth noting that
it will be warm regardless. Even the guidance showing southerly
flow aloft has widespread highs in the mid/upper 80s. For now, we
are going with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

By Wednesday, global deterministic guidance suggest a frontal
boundary could influence our weather by increasing the chance of
showers and thunderstorms. It`s a bit far out to say anything with
certainty. That being said, the longer range deterministic and
ensemble guidance suggest a change to a wetter pattern by the
middle to latter portion of next week. Only time well tell!

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

MVFR conditions or worse is expected for the next couple of days
with CIGs around 1500 to 2000ft through today, down to 800 to
1000ft tonight, and back up to around 1500 to 2500ft during the
day on Friday. Southeasterly winds around 15G25kts will develop
today into this evening with southerly winds starting tonight
through Thursday around the same speeds. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across the
area. Have included VCSH for most terminals, but did include VCTS
for CLL as there will have the best chance for an isolated
thunderstorm. Shower and thunderstorm activity will dissipate in
the evening.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Moderate southeasterly winds are expected today. Winds are
expected to increase and veer to the south on Friday, possibly
reaching small craft advisory criteria. Winds are expected to be
much lighter on Saturday before increasing onshore flow returns on
Sunday and Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances could increase
by the middle of next week with the potential approach of a
frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 69 85 53 / 30 20 40 10
Houston (IAH) 77 71 86 63 / 30 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 76 71 77 68 / 10 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Gusty southeasterly winds and MVFR CIGS are expected to persist
throughout the remainder of the day. Isolated afternoon showers
should taper off heading into the evening. Breezy southeasterly
winds should continue tonight with CIGS nearing or briefly
dropping to IFR levels overnight. CIGS begin to improve Friday
morning as gusty southerly winds develop area wide. Isolated
streamer showers and gusts near 25 to 30 knots develop Friday
afternoon in advance of an approaching cold front.

03
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jasons2k
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Wind is so loud I’m wide awake. Just had a power flash too.
suprdav2
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Wind was no joke earlier. Power out, and can't sleep now.
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jasons2k
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suprdav2 wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 5:15 am Wind was no joke earlier. Power out, and can't sleep now.
It was strange. For about an hour it sounded like a tropical storm. It finally slowed-down and I fell back asleep.
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