March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Thundersleet
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That is what I like to see.
Stratton20
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Lol the overnight Euro run had a 1060 MB high dropping down into NW Canada, thats some chilly stuff haha
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I'd love about 4-5 more freezes in a row followed by 3 months of straight rain so the **** pollen and hay allergies don't rear their head in force.

By the time it gets too hot, they disperse, so lets go from really cold to really wet to Summer in late June.
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don
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Need to keep an eye on the storm late this week. (especially areas north of I-10) It looks to be powerful with not only a severe weather threat but also a non storm wind damage threat.Models are already showing a squall line developing,with strong winds wrapping around the backside of the low afterwards.(Both the EURO & GFS have winds gusting over 60 mph behind the front in some areas)SPC already mentioning a widespread outbreak may be possible.
day5prob.gif
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D5/THU...

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday as
moisture advection occurs across much of the Southeast.
Thunderstorms will be possible across the moist sector from east
Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and northward into the
mid Mississippi Valley. At this time, any severe threat is expected
to remain isolated on Wednesday, due to weak instability and limited
large-scale ascent.

...Thursday/Day 5 and Friday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward on Thursday from
the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. By late afternoon on
Thursday, model forecasts develop a corridor of moderate instability
in east Texas and have strong deep-layer shear present over much of
the southern Plains. This environment should support severe storms
capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps some tornadoes. A
widespread outbreak of severe weather will be possible beginning
Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. The
potential for severe storms should shift eastward across the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states
Thursday night where the threat for wind damage, hail and tornadoes
should continue.
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Cpv17
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don wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 12:52 pm Need to keep an eye on the storm late this week. (especially areas north of I-10) It looks to be powerful with not only a severe weather threat but also a non storm wind damage threat.Models are already showing a squall line developing,with strong winds wrapping around the backside of the low afterwards.(Both the EURO & GFS have winds gusting over 60 mph behind the front in some areas)SPC already mentioning a widespread outbreak may be possible.

day5prob.gif
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D5/THU...

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday as
moisture advection occurs across much of the Southeast.
Thunderstorms will be possible across the moist sector from east
Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and northward into the
mid Mississippi Valley. At this time, any severe threat is expected
to remain isolated on Wednesday, due to weak instability and limited
large-scale ascent.

...Thursday/Day 5 and Friday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward on Thursday from
the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. By late afternoon on
Thursday, model forecasts develop a corridor of moderate instability
in east Texas and have strong deep-layer shear present over much of
the southern Plains. This environment should support severe storms
capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps some tornadoes. A
widespread outbreak of severe weather will be possible beginning
Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. The
potential for severe storms should shift eastward across the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states
Thursday night where the threat for wind damage, hail and tornadoes
should continue.
As usual, the worst of it will be NE of us.
Stratton20
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can we just skip severe weather season please lol
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:05 pm
don wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 12:52 pm Need to keep an eye on the storm late this week. (especially areas north of I-10) It looks to be powerful with not only a severe weather threat but also a non storm wind damage threat.Models are already showing a squall line developing,with strong winds wrapping around the backside of the low afterwards.(Both the EURO & GFS have winds gusting over 60 mph behind the front in some areas)SPC already mentioning a widespread outbreak may be possible.

day5prob.gif
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D5/THU...

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday as
moisture advection occurs across much of the Southeast.
Thunderstorms will be possible across the moist sector from east
Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and northward into the
mid Mississippi Valley. At this time, any severe threat is expected
to remain isolated on Wednesday, due to weak instability and limited
large-scale ascent.

...Thursday/Day 5 and Friday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward on Thursday from
the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. By late afternoon on
Thursday, model forecasts develop a corridor of moderate instability
in east Texas and have strong deep-layer shear present over much of
the southern Plains. This environment should support severe storms
capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps some tornadoes. A
widespread outbreak of severe weather will be possible beginning
Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. The
potential for severe storms should shift eastward across the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states
Thursday night where the threat for wind damage, hail and tornadoes
should continue.
As usual, the worst of it will be NE of us.
I expect the worse to stay around tine arklotex. I'm more "interested" in the widespread gusty winds behind the front that may effect most of the state.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:20 pm can we just skip severe weather season please lol
No thanks! Give me round after round of thunderstorms (nothing that will do damage or impact lives) with several inches of rain spread out through spring. I love me a good storm. Gets my adrenaline pumping! Would love to see a tornado out here in the open pastures and fields.
Cromagnum
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What do you guys recommend for a home weather station? Our old cheapo La Crosse unit bit the dust finally. I don't necessarily need one with an anemometer, but it seems like all the ones that just do temp / humidity have big accuracy problems.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cromagnum wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:40 pm What do you guys recommend for a home weather station? Our old cheapo La Crosse unit bit the dust finally. I don't necessarily need one with an anemometer, but it seems like all the ones that just do temp / humidity have big accuracy problems.
I like the Ambient Weather Smart Station for the price. It’s worked well in the elements in Weimar.
Team #NeverSummer
Stratton20
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EPS and GEFS look amazing😁
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don
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Severe weather Thursday is conditional on the cap breaking,all modes of severe weather is probable if the cap breaks.For right now models are breaking the cap north of I-10 especially.While the worst should be in the Arklatex,a local outbreak of severe weather is a real possibility even here locally if the cap breaks as shear will be fairly high.
Heading into Thursday afternoon, an upper level trof and
associated Pacific cold front will be making its way closer to the
area from the west. Breezy south winds in advance will allow for
some 1.5-1.7" to flow into the region. Expect some shra/tstm
development to our northwest along the surface boundary late in
the day, filling in southward, and quickly sweeping esewd across
most of the region in the evening. Capping around H85 remains a
limiting factor for widespread severe storms, however recent model
runs show the possibility that it may erode enough and/or be
overcome by sufficient llvl convergence across northern parts of
the region. Should this be the case and the storms are able to tap
into the instability/shear, severe cells will be a possibility.
All hazards would be at play (straight line winds, hail and an
isolated tornado) along and ahead of the front. Flooding won`t be
a concern due to the fast movement.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:05 pm EPS and GEFS look amazing😁
I still don’t see any cold on the horizon. Nothing cold the next 10 days.
Stratton20
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18z GFS says winter aint over yet
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don
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.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Mid-upper trof and associated Pacific cold front will be making
its way across Texas during the day. Breezy & warm conditions
will prevail with an increasing llvl jet in advance of this system.
Showers and embedded tstms will eventually develop along/ahead of
the surface boundary then trek wnw-ese across the region sometime
in the 3pm-10pm timeframe. Slight timing differences exist between
the global models at this point. While =/-3 hours typically
wouldn`t be significant concern, it could make a difference in
regards to the potential capping and available instability in
play...and hence the overall severe weather threat & locations.
For now, one cannot completely rule out severe wx anywhere, but
more favorable locations might be north of I-10. All wx hazards
will conditionally be possible (wind/hail/tornado). Hires model
data should be available by this time tomorrow so hopefully we`ll
be able to start narrowing down the finer details
Cromagnum
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Warmest February ever for us? I'm curious how the record stacks up.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
544 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Another warm and humid day is on tap for SETX today. Expect cloud
cover to continue overspreading the region as WAA intensifies ahead
of the next system arriving tomorrow. In addition, a progressive
shortwave/vort max will be moving just north of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods area, resulting in isolated rain and/or storm
during the day. Looking at 850 mb winds, models continue to support
a moderate SW to NE LLJ moving over the region, allowing for a good
surge of low-level moisture to be advected over the Coastal Bend and
SETX. This will also result in breezy conditions with gusts up to 25
mph possible in the afternoon. Highs will once again climb into the
mid to upper 80s inland, and in the 70s over the coastal areas.
Overcast skies will stick around tonight, along with light to
moderate southerly winds. Overnight lows will remain on the mild
side with readings from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Attention then turns to Thursday as scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the evening. A deepening
upper-level trough -- currently spinning across the Western CONUS
per water vapor satellite imagery -- will make its way east-
southeast across the southern Rockies today, then east-northeast
across TX on Thursday. Its associated Pacific cold front will move
over SETX in the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
showers with a few thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the FROPA
in the morning and afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show 700mb
temperatures ranging from 10-14C, mainly south of a line from CLL
to CXO. Therefore, any convection or thunderstorms ahead of the front
will need to fight this capping inversion. The main concern or focus
for severe weather potential could be late Thursday afternoon into
the evening hours as the aforementioned frontal boundary moves
through. SPC has placed most of the region under an Enhanced and
Slight Risk of Severe Weather on their Day 2 Outlook. This seems
appropriate, especially for our far northern/northwestern counties,
as the environment becomes less stable along with an increasing
deep layer shear (25-35+ kts) and strengthening LLJ. All hazards
will be at play. Initial storms could bring a threat of hail and
gusty winds, then damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the
main risk in the evening. Details on placement and specific threats
will be monitored closely as high resolution forecast models converge
on a solution later today.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Friday will start off breezy and colder in the wake of the latest
front. Highs will only reach the 60s while lows dip into the 40s.
High pressure will remain overhead through most of the weekend,
leading to mostly clear skies, highs in the upper 70s, and lows in
the 50s to 60s. By Sunday evening, sfc high pressure begins to
push east, allowing onshore flow to return and therefore, heat and
relative humidity will gradually climb. By Monday and Tuesday,
Southeast Texas will be back in the 80s for daytime highs while
overnight lows barely dip below 70. Noticeable rain chances don`t
return in the long-term forecast and beyond.

Walts

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Widespread IFR to MVFR ceilings and isolated MVFR visibility
prevail across all terminals early this morning. Low clouds will
gradually lift through the morning hours, scattering out by
midday/early afternoon. High clouds, on the other hand, will stick
around through much of the TAF cycle. A weak disturbance will
move north of the terminals today, resulting a few showers and an
isolated thunder near UTS. Given slight rain/storm chances, did
not include VCSH or VCTS in TAFs. Breezy southerly winds are
expected today, with the higher gusts in the afternoon. Another
round of MVFR to LIFR ceilings are again expected this evening
into Thursday.

JM


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Winds and seas will start to increase today ahead of the next cold
front on Thursday evening. Caution flags could be needed as early
tonight and Advisory flags needed as early as Thursday afternoon.
Patchy sea fog is expected to linger near the Bays and our
nearshore waters until winds become stronger and mix out this fog.
The front is expected to reach our coastal waters early Friday
morning, but from 6pm to midnight on Thursday ahead of this front,
winds and seas will increase even further with occasional gusts
near Gale expected in our offshore waters. Seas will build to
8-9ft as well for our offshore waters and up to 7ft for our
nearshore waters. Once the front pushes through our coastal waters
early Friday morning, strong offshore winds in its wake could
lead to low water conditions during low tide. PETSS model
guidance is hinting at values reaching -0.5 to -1.0 MLLW. Winds
and seas will start to subside late Friday evening and into the
weekend.

Walts

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 69 81 48 / 20 20 30 70
Houston (IAH) 85 71 81 54 / 10 10 20 70
Galveston (GLS) 77 69 76 58 / 10 10 10 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Walts
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Walts
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 11:02 am Warmest February ever for us? I'm curious how the record stacks up.
In Houston, yes. In CLL - warmer than average. We did break a few record lows.

It's amazing to me that we get days with the DP near 70°F in the winter - I've never seen as many until this "winter." The GoM temps have been in the 50s and now low 60s. You'd think the Gulf would act like a swamp cooler and keep dewpoints close to sea temperature. :roll:

If it's going to be in the 80s and not rain in late winter, give me some dry Mexican air. 8-)
Stratton20
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12z Euro is very interesting
Cromagnum
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How so? I just see a rain band coming through. Pretty standard looking front to me, unless I'm missing something?
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