March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Not a surprise, but look at that cap.Don't expect to see much tomorrow with that around.😉
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Cpv17
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don wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 2:08 pm Not a surprise, but look at that cap.Don't expect to see much tomorrow with that around.😉
It’s because the low will be too far to our north.
Iceresistance
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DFW and Texarkana are going to be absolutely hammered tomorrow.

I may get some storms, but severe weather? That is too close to call for me.
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tireman4
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US64 KHGX 012113
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
313 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

The focus of the short term forecast will obviously be the
potential thunderstorm event out at the end of the short term
period tomorrow night. We`ll get there, but let`s run through the
time leading up to it first.

This afternoon is warm and partly to mostly cloudy with breezy
southerly winds. We`re tapping into a bit of a low level jet,
helping mix down gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Sugar Land even managed a
gust to around 40 mph today. And while that should persist through
the afternoon, we`ll make a tradeoff with sundown as the gusts
fade off, and we get a return of low stratus and some patchy fog.

We`ll also be looking for precipitable water to be building to
around 1.5 inches with dewpoints rising to around 70 degrees. Pair
that with some gentle upglide from the persistent southerly winds,
and we`ve got a good shot at seeing some streamer shower activity
late tonight into tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow, we begin to look more into thunderstorm threat. Expect
southerlies to become a bit blustery again as the low level jet
rebuilds and sometimes mixes some good gusts down to the surface.
But while that LLJ is more southerly and has a Gulf connection
implying support for upward motion, we continue to have solid
southwesterly flow at 700 mb, hammering out a stout cap for much
of the day. In addition, mid-level heights are fairly high and
a vorticity corridor aloft is still off to our northwest. Because
of this, I`m thinking we are unlikely to manage much more than
some showers under this cap for much of the day, in spite of the
fact that HREF mean CAPE is in the 1000-1500 J/Kg range. Of
course, despite that CAPE, the strength of the cap is shown that
the HREF shows our entire forecast area capped to some extent,
with a strong cap from roughly the Houston metro southward.

We may finally see something start to change tomorrow night. We`ll
begin to lose some instability as the sun goes down, but will be
at least somewhat offset by cooling aloft as well. The cap still
looks pretty tough, but between some weakening and forced
mechanical lifting by the incoming cold front, will give us some
opportunity for some stronger storms - especially since the
environment may be supportive of preserving existing storms moving
in from the west, even if it`s not enough for new development,
necessarily. This is likely going to happen in the northern half
of the area, while the coastal portion of the area stays more
capped and sticks with showers and some embedded sub-severe
storms.

Even in the north, we should find ourselves more on the southern
fringe of this event. A more significant severe outbreak looks
like it could occur north of our area - and depending on how
things play out exactly, we may catch the southern bits of that.
In general, all severe modes are possible, though I`d expect hail
to drop off pretty rapidly as CAPE falls and storms line out. From
there, damaging straight-line wind gusts look to become the
primary threat, while a tornado or two will also be possible.

Luchs

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Benign conditions expected for much of the long term period. After
Thursday`s cold frontal passage, dry cooler air will push across
Southeast TX on Friday, resulting in sunny skies and high temperatures
in the mid 60s to low 70s. A warming trend sets up this upcoming
weekend as southerly flow brings an gentle push of warm moist air
from the Gulf, highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. A stronger
surge in moisture comes through late Sunday through Tuesday, and
will bring up the highs in the mid 80s each day. With this
moisture, we will also have a pattern of cloudy skies at night and
partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. The next best chance for
rain could be on Tuesday, but chances are low given the strong
mid level ridging expected across the region. Cannot rule out some
light passing showers, however.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

CIGs improving through the morning after early low stratus.
However, this is occurring in tandem with breezy southerly winds.
Gusty winds with generally VFR should prevail through the
afternoon, but will trade again with sundown. As gusts fall off
this evening, low CIGs with some patchy fog should roar back. CIGs
likely to be the limiting factor with IFR and localized LIFR
coming in and lesser VSBY restrictions. Only exceptions may be LBX
and GLS, where sea fog may generate more significant sea fog.
Repeat again tomorrow morning - lifting cloud bases should be
replaced by gusty southerlies. Showers and storms lie beyond this
forecast period.

Luchs

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Onshore flow will strengthen to around 15 KTS late tonight
through Thursday morning and then to 20 to 25 KTS in the afternoon
ahead of the next FROPA. The cold front is expected to push
through the coastal waters Thursday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible ahead and along the front, some may be
strong to severe. NW winds of 20-30 KTS and gusts near gale
strength at times will develop in the wake of the front. Caution
flags and Advisories will be issued from late tonight into Friday
morning. Also, low water conditions are possible Friday morning
during low tide times. Winds relax and seas subside during the day
Friday. E winds expected on Monday and onshore flow will return
early next week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 81 48 66 / 20 30 90 0
Houston (IAH) 71 81 54 69 / 20 40 80 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 76 58 70 / 20 30 60 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...24
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jasons2k
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Well the NWS has me at an 80% chance of rain tomorrow night. We’ll see.
Cromagnum
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Brazoria County may not get anything besides some wind.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 5:51 pm Brazoria County may not get anything besides some wind.
Same here in Wharton County. Everything is always north of me and you.
Thundersleet
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I am still waiting to see if and when any Canadian/Arctic cold front and dome of High Pressure will bring back much more Winter like highs and lows even if only for a short span of time. Personally, I would not mind a chilly early Spring during most of this month into April.
dp6
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For any night owls, that lone storm that produced softball-sized hail near Dilley has held together as it sped east and the core seems to have intensified just now near Cuero. Warned with golf ball hail now. On track to hit Sugar Land in about 3 hours. Edit: Make that sometime in the 4am hour for Sugar Land. I forgot that the forum clock is way screwed up. Perhaps it will fall back 24 minutes when will spring forward an hour in a week and a half....
Last edited by dp6 on Thu Mar 02, 2023 1:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
Thundersleet
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Hey, if Winter 2022-2023 turns out to be a poor or wimpy Winter due to La Niña then I accept that, as much as I not like it. At least we have October-December sooo……
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jasons2k
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Thundersleet wrote: Thu Mar 02, 2023 1:34 am I am still waiting to see if and when any Canadian/Arctic cold front and dome of High Pressure will bring back much more Winter like highs and lows even if only for a short span of time. Personally, I would not mind a chilly early Spring during most of this month into April.
Winter might revisit you end of next week. Might see the 30’s again down here.

I wish a forum admin would fix the clock. It should be an easy fix.
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Timing of the (possible) storms today?
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tireman4
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:35 am Timing of the (possible) storms today?
This front is progged to reach our western counties close to 6PM
this evening. As the front moves east, strong deep layer
shear and an corridor of 1700+ J/kg DCAPE, could produce pockets
of damaging wind through 10PM - midnight.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 021006
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
406 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 245 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Southerly flow continues to increase throughout the day, becoming
gusty later this afternoon and evening mostly due to a reinforcing
LLJ. Gusts up to 30 mph will be possible during the day, with higher
gusts expected in the evening. This southerly flow will continue to
draw higher dew points into the area, ahead of an approaching
Pacific cold front associated with the broad upper trough moving
across the southern Rockies. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible ahead of the FROPA, mainly after midday. However,
confidence in occurrence is still moderate given the
following...despite increased moisture, and boosting instability
to around 1500-2400 J/kg by peak heating, any thunderstorms
developing ahead of the FROPA will need to overcome the strength
of capping inversion. As of now, latest soundings show a stout cap
at 700 mb prevailing across much of SETX into the late afternoon
hours, weakening some north of a line from CLL to UTS. Therefore,
this area with will have the greatest risk of severe weather if
the cap breaks later this afternoon. The most active period
appears to be with the potential linear system tied to the front
and when the 700:500 mb shortwave begins to enter the southern
Plains, cooling these layers and enhancing mid-lvl lapse rates.
This front is progged to reach our western counties close to 6PM
this evening. By then, given the degree of instability remaining,
early evening storms will be capable of producing hail and
isolated damaging wind. As the front moves east, strong deep layer
shear and an corridor of 1700+ J/kg DCAPE, could produce pockets
of damaging wind through 10PM - midnight. Overall, the greatest
risk of severe weather will be across our far northern counties.
This area will have the best dynamic and forcing capable of
producing damaging winds-straight line winds and isolated
tornadoes.

A strong west to east LLJ will move over the region behind the
frontal passage in the evening and overnight hours. This will result
in breezy to windy west to northwest winds with gusts up to 30-40
mph at times. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed at some point
today. A drier and cooler airmass will quickly filter in early
Friday, bringing near normal temperatures during the day. Mostly
clear skies and light winds are expected Friday night into Saturday
with lows mainly from the low 40s to upper 50s.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Do you have plans outdoors this weekend? We`ll if you don`t, you
should make some because the weather is going to be b-e-a-utiful.
And don`t do it for you, do it for the forecasters who are
working overnights this weekend (aka me). High pressure over the
region will bring low clear skies, low humidity, and afternoon
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. The high
pressure begins to slide to the east on Sunday inducing a
southeasterly flow into SE Texas warming us up into the low 80s.
The warmup continues through midweek next week as the southerly
flow persists with highs in the mid 80s expected. There will be a
slight chance of showers north of Huntsville Tuesday and Wednesday
as a stalled boundary works slides down into the area.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

MVFR CIGS will slowly spread northward to all remaining terminals
late tonight, with areas near the coast potentially dropping to
IFR levels during the early morning hours. CIGS should slowly
lift during the mid to late morning on Thursday as gusty S/SE
winds settle in across the region. VFR to MVFR conditions should
prevail through the afternoon with light streamer showers
developing in advance of a cold front. This cold front will arrive
at College Station around 7-9 PM Thursday night, bringing a line
of showers and thunderstorms across the region as it pushes E/SE.
The front should push offshore shortly after midnight, though
vertical wind shear may develop during the early morning hours of
Friday behind the front.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Light to moderate onshore flow, climbing to 20 to 25kts by this
afternoon, will persist through this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front. This cold front will move through the
coastal waters late around midnight tonight ushering in a strong
northwesterly flow that will continue into Friday morning. These
winds will also increase seas to 6 to 9ft. A Small Craft Advisory
is in effect starting at 2pm this evening for the onshore flow,
and continues through Friday morning to account for the offshore
flow. The strong offshore flow combined with already low
astronomical tides will bring abnormally low tides on Friday with
low tide Friday morning around 1ft below Mean Low Low Water.

Light winds are expected Friday night and through Saturday with
onshore flow redeveloping by Sunday. Moisture begins to increase
Sunday night bringing back the potential for patchy sea fog which
will remain a possibility nightly through midweek next week.

Fowler

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

There were numerous temperature records set yesterday across SE
Texas:

City of Houston:
- Record high max temp of 84 tied the old record last set in
2017.
- Record high min temp of 71 breaking the old record of 70 set in
2012.

Houston-Hobby:
- Record high max temp of 85 tied the old record set in 2017.
- Record high min temp of 72 breaking the old record of 70 set in
2012.

City of Galveston:
- Record high min temp of 71 breaking the old record of 68 set in
2018.

City of College Station:
- Record high min temp of 70 breaking the old record of 67 set in
1998.

Palacios:
- Record high min temp of 72 breaking the old record of 68 set in
2012.

The low temperatures yesterday were either equal to or warmer
than the normal high this time of year.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 48 68 45 / 30 80 0 0
Houston (IAH) 82 54 71 49 / 30 70 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 76 58 72 59 / 20 50 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CST
Friday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 2 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Fowler
Climate...Fowler
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jasons2k
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Update from Jeff:

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening.

Strong winds of 30-40mph likely overnight into early Friday behind a cold front.

A strong storm system will move across Texas today and tonight. Warm sector air mass is firmly in place over SE TX with surface dewpoints into the low 70’s. Southerly low level winds will rapidly increase later this morning into the afternoon hours a low pressure develops over the southern plains. Instability slowly builds under the mid level capping inversion (a layer of warm air in the mid levels of the atmosphere). This capping should prevent little more than a few showers through the afternoon hours.

As the surface cold front begins to move eastward later this afternoon and evening and the mid levels begin to cool, the cap over the area weakens. Strong lift along the frontal boundary appears to be enough to break the cap between 500-700pm along the I-35 corridor with rapid development of strong or severe thunderstorms possible. These storms quickly form into a line and move into SE TX early this evening, but with the loss of surface heating, these storms begin to weaken as shown on several of the high resolution models. Best chances for any severe weather will be from Columbus to College Station and then along and north of HWY 105. Storms along I-10 west will likely weaken as the move eastward, while storms across the northern portions of SE TX may maintain their intensity as the cap is weakest in this area.

While all severe modes will be possible, very large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Again, the severe risk is strongly tied to the weakening of the mid level capping inversion, and should that fail to happen, only a thin line of showers would result.

There has been little change to the SPC severe weather outlook over the last 24 hours.

Behind the front and impressive low level WSW/W jet develops overnight with very strong winds likely across portions of SW TX into the I-35 corridor and then spreading eastward into SE TX. Winds of 30-40mph will be possible. Strong winds across portions of SW TX may loft significant amounts of dust that could be transported into SE TX Friday morning.

A significantly drier air mass will spread into the region on Friday with low humidity values and cooler temperatures.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
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jasons2k
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Not one, but two floaters over Texas today.
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sambucol
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What are floaters?
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tireman4
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Floaters provide imagery centered on tropical cyclones and disturbances. In this case, thunderstorms, tornadoes and severe weather.
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jasons2k
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sambucol wrote: Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:32 pm What are floaters?
Roaming satellites that NOAA can position over specific storms. They have a high refresh rate at maximum resolution.

Listed here as “View Mesoscale Floater Sectors”

Note this page is optimized for desktop:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Edit: also note you can add overlays to the images, such as county lines, interstate highways, etc.
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

A fairly straight-forward, but by no means easy forecast ahead.
Expecting cloud bases to gradually rise so that VFR becomes more
widespread this afternoon with gusty south winds. For the most
part, expecting only scattered showers during the day, but if
anything breaks the cap, potential for strong storms exists.
Increase in CIGs should be fairly brief, falling back to MVFR and
even IFR in spots this evening, while scattered showers continue.
Later tonight, cold front swoops in from NW to SE. Line of heavier
showers likely, and if the front is enough for storms to break the
cap, severe weather - damaging wind gusts the primary threat - is
possible. Line moves through quickly, with west to northwest winds
building quickly along with potential for LLWS until morning, when
winds above the deck become more aligned.
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