March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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I don't know about that overnight rain. There is absolutely nothing on radar.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:12 pm I don't know about that overnight rain. There is absolutely nothing on radar.
Gonna have to wait till at or slightly after midnight before storms are supposed to start popping.
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DoctorMu
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I'm just not seeing a major uptick in rain in CLL on the 8-14 day forecast beyond a small lean.

It's looks more like the New SE Tornado Alley scenario.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:19 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:12 pm I don't know about that overnight rain. There is absolutely nothing on radar.
Gonna have to wait till at or slightly after midnight before storms are supposed to start popping.
The radar is redefining weak line of showers west of Waco.

A trace of rain here in CLL, then supercells again in LA, MS, AL.
Cpv17
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The severe weather outbreak expected Friday could be really bad once again. Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois are expected to get the worst of it this time.
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jasons2k
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 9:59 pm Might see potentially our first 90 degree reading in about a week, NWS has upper 80’s for me next monday, absolutely putrid🤮🤮🤮👎👎👎
Bring it. I’m ready for pool season to start :) :)

Storms popping on radar…
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:45 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:19 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:12 pm I don't know about that overnight rain. There is absolutely nothing on radar.
Gonna have to wait till at or slightly after midnight before storms are supposed to start popping.
The radar is redefining weak line of showers west of Waco.

A trace of rain here in CLL, then supercells again in LA, MS, AL.
El Niño is coming. Bound to rain eventually and more than likely will be a flood of epic proportions.
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don
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A small supercell just developed on the east side of town,it just clipped me 5 mins ago with some brief heavy rain.It has a small hook forming also.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC071-201-280500-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0024.230328T0427Z-230328T0500Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1127 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
West central Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until midnight CDT.

* At 1127 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over northwestern
Pasadena, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Pasadena, Baytown, Deer Park, South Houston, Galena
Park, Jacinto City, Beach City, Cloverleaf, Channelview, Highlands,
Barrett, Greater Hobby Area, Morgan`s Point, Golfcrest / Bellfort /
Reveille, Harrisburg / Manchester, Park Place, Northshore, Houston
Ship Channel, San Jacinto State Park and Clinton Park
Tri-Community.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2965 9528 2975 9529 2988 9499 2968 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 253DEG 23KT 2971 9519

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH
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Cromagnum
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Will see if I get anything tonight. All the action has been north and south, with nothing in between so far.
Thundersleet
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Howdy. The taste or preview to Summer like temperatures combined with the high humidity is not going to feel all that nice. Blah 😑. Desert 🏜️ humidity always feel nice to me as well as to numerous people I know.
Cromagnum
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Not a drop. Every single cell went around me.
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jasons2k
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Nothing here. Next.
Cpv17
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There was a severe thunderstorm warning in Wharton County last night around 2am but nothing at my house. My friend in Deer Park said they had golf ball size hail.
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jasons2k
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Here it comes…
Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281716
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will
continue to develop across the coastal counties through sunrise, but
will shift to the east as a boundary exits - though it won`t go far
as it will stall in the coastal waters through the next several
days. Despite the front pushing through SE Texas today, lingering
upper level moisture will cause partly to mostly cloudy skies
through Wednesday morning. Returning low level moisture and a weak
passing shortwave aloft will bring the return for isolated showers
and very isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening with
areas west of I-45 having the best chance for storms.

Temperatures today will be slightly cooler compared to yesterday
with highs this afternoon in the low to mid 70s and low tonight in
the low 50s north of Huntsville, mid 50s along I-10, and then low
60s along the immediate coastline. Lingering cloud cover and
scattered showers will keep afternoon temperatures in the low 70s on
Wednesday, but returning southeasterly flow will bump low
temperatures up Wednesday night back up into the mid to upper 50s
for most of the area and low to mid 60s along the coast.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

The southeasterly flow will increase on Thursday as an upper level
low digs down through the Four Corners region. Isolated afternoon
showers will be possible in Southeast Texas as this flow brings
increasing moisture to the region, though coverage will be less
compared to Wednesday as we get a weak ridge building aloft. The
previously mentioned disturbance in the west will spawn a surface
low over the Northern Plains on Friday with the associated cold
front pushing through Friday night into Saturday morning. The best
dynamics for thunderstorms will remain north of our region, but
cannot out-rule some thunderstorms developing north of
Huntsville. The southern section of the cold front gets cutoff
from the passing low pressure system becoming a stationary front
in the coastal waters on Saturday, but will move northwards into
SE Texas Saturday night into Sunday bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This front continues its northwards motion for
Monday ushering in hot and humid weather for the area.

Temperatures on Thursday will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer
compared to Wednesday thanks to the southeasterly flow with highs
climbing into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The warming trend
continues on Friday as southerly flow increases ahead of the
approaching front bringing temperatures into the low to mid 80s.
The front pushes through Friday night, but don`t expect much if
any cool down as it quickly returns Saturday. So, the mid 80s will
continue through Sunday. The persistent southerly flow into Monday
means we could climb into the 80s Monday afternoon with some spots
potentially hitting 90 for the first time this year.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Mostly cloudy skies and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the TAF period. Gusty northerly winds this afternoon
will relax after sunset, becoming light to moderate this evening.
Winds should become northeasterly Wednesday morning, veering E/SE
heading into Wednesday afternoon.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

A cold front will push offshore this morning. Continued shower
and thunderstorm activity is likely during the morning hours as a
result. A few thunderstorms could be strong. Locally strong wind
gusts and hail are the primary concerns. Patchy fog will also be
possible this morning in the nearshore waters immediately ahead of
the front. Moderate to strong north to northeast winds and
building seas will develop in the wake of the front. Small craft
advisory level winds are expected today into tonight. Winds slowly
decrease tonight and Wednesday. Southeast winds resume late on
Wednesday and gradually swing around to the south at the end of
the week. Caution flags are anticipated, and advisories might be
needed. Over the weekend, another cold front may push into the
region and stall offshore. Lower winds and lighter seas are
anticipated.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 53 70 56 / 0 20 20 0
Houston (IAH) 75 57 71 58 / 10 20 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 61 69 65 / 50 20 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:03 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:45 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:19 pm

Gonna have to wait till at or slightly after midnight before storms are supposed to start popping.
The radar is redefining weak line of showers west of Waco.

A trace of rain here in CLL, then supercells again in LA, MS, AL.
El Niño is coming. Bound to rain eventually and more than likely will be a flood of epic proportions.
That'll be next winter. ;)
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DoctorMu
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71°F DP 35°F NW15 mph Sunny. 8-)

Man, it doesn't get much better than this.

That's the thing I miss from NC. Every spring and fall there are extended periods like this, interspersed with rain - usually an inch or so then out.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:44 pm Here it comes…
Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90.
This part is worse: Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Well, ****!!!
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DoctorMu
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Greensboro, NC for Monday:

Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 44.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 74.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:54 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:03 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:45 pm

The radar is redefining weak line of showers west of Waco.

A trace of rain here in CLL, then supercells again in LA, MS, AL.
El Niño is coming. Bound to rain eventually and more than likely will be a flood of epic proportions.
That'll be next winter. ;)
La Niña is gone. Things are neutral now and El Niño will be here soon from what I hear. Latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 look decent for rain. Next week looks active after Monday. Next Tuesday and Wednesday look dangerous for the southern plains.
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