March 2023

[spadilly]

Day 3 outlook:

[don]

Looks like a potent MCS is going to move through on Thursday.

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes should occur Thursday across
parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Upper troughing will progress eastward across the central CONUS on
Thursday. The northern portion of this upper trough should evolve
into a closed upper low over the northern Plains and adjacent parts
of central Canada through the period. Farther south, a lead
low-amplitude shortwave trough should quickly eject northeastward
through the day from the southern Plains into the MS Valley and
Midwest. Behind this lead wave, another shortwave trough with
associated strong mid/upper-level west-southwesterly jet is forecast
to overspread parts of TX/OK by late Thursday afternoon. There are
still notable differences in deterministic guidance regarding the
amplitude and location of this second shortwave trough by late
Thursday afternoon. The primary surface low, initially near the
KS/OK border, should develop northeastward towards the Midwest/Great
Lakes by Thursday evening in tandem with the lead shortwave trough.
An attendant cold front will sweep quickly southeastward over the
central/southern Plains and ArkLaTex region. A dryline should mix
eastward across central TX through Thursday afternoon.

There are some indications in guidance that convection may initiate
fairly early in the day over the open warm sector of east TX and
vicinity. This activity may be tied to persistent low-level warm
advection, and the glancing influence of the lead shortwave trough.
Gradually increasing low-level moisture and filtered diurnal heating
should support the development of at least weak instability across
these areas. With strong deep-layer shear expected, any
thunderstorms that be sustained could pose some severe threat.
Additional isolated convection will probably develop along the
dryline by late Thursday afternoon across parts of north/central TX
as the second shortwave trough approaches the southern Plains. This
activity may initially be supercellular with a threat for large hail
given steep mid-level lapse rates and potentially moderate
instability. With time, convection will likely grow upscale into an
MCS along the quickly advancing cold front. This MCS should have a
greater wind threat as it moves generally east-southeastward
Thursday evening/overnight across central/east TX, the ArkLaTex, and
eventually lower MS Valley. A rather strong low-level jet should
also be present over east TX into AR/LA Thursday evening. With ample
low-level shear forecast, any supercells that can form and remain
ahead of the cold front/MCS should pose a tornado threat.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Headed to Des Moines for the first two rounds of the tourney.

Snow and teens/20s! Love it.

[Cromagnum]

Little rogue rain cell just missed me south. Angleton and Danbury might have cashed in.

[brazoriatx]

Little rogue rain cell just missed me south. Angleton and Danbury might have cashed in.

We got about 3 mins of light sprinkles here in angleton. Not worth writing home about

[DoctorMu]

Looks like a potent MCS is going to move through on Thursday.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_69.png

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes should occur Thursday across
parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Upper troughing will progress eastward across the central CONUS on
Thursday. The northern portion of this upper trough should evolve
into a closed upper low over the northern Plains and adjacent parts
of central Canada through the period. Farther south, a lead
low-amplitude shortwave trough should quickly eject northeastward
through the day from the southern Plains into the MS Valley and
Midwest. Behind this lead wave, another shortwave trough with
associated strong mid/upper-level west-southwesterly jet is forecast
to overspread parts of TX/OK by late Thursday afternoon. There are
still notable differences in deterministic guidance regarding the
amplitude and location of this second shortwave trough by late
Thursday afternoon. The primary surface low, initially near the
KS/OK border, should develop northeastward towards the Midwest/Great
Lakes by Thursday evening in tandem with the lead shortwave trough.
An attendant cold front will sweep quickly southeastward over the
central/southern Plains and ArkLaTex region. A dryline should mix
eastward across central TX through Thursday afternoon.

There are some indications in guidance that convection may initiate
fairly early in the day over the open warm sector of east TX and
vicinity. This activity may be tied to persistent low-level warm
advection, and the glancing influence of the lead shortwave trough.
Gradually increasing low-level moisture and filtered diurnal heating
should support the development of at least weak instability across
these areas. With strong deep-layer shear expected, any
thunderstorms that be sustained could pose some severe threat.
Additional isolated convection will probably develop along the
dryline by late Thursday afternoon across parts of north/central TX
as the second shortwave trough approaches the southern Plains. This
activity may initially be supercellular with a threat for large hail
given steep mid-level lapse rates and potentially moderate
instability. With time, convection will likely grow upscale into an
MCS along the quickly advancing cold front. This MCS should have a
greater wind threat as it moves generally east-southeastward
Thursday evening/overnight across central/east TX, the ArkLaTex, and
eventually lower MS Valley. A rather strong low-level jet should
also be present over east TX into AR/LA Thursday evening. With ample
low-level shear forecast, any supercells that can form and remain
ahead of the cold front/MCS should pose a tornado threat.

Great - we'll be driving through that mess.

[DoctorMu]

Headed to Des Moines for the first two rounds of the tourney.

Snow and teens/20s! Love it.

Wish I were there. Driving to Greensboro area and beyond, but the NCAAT committee pulled a switcheroo sending Duke to Orland.

A&M was seeded #7 by spite to play t.u. I think the Aggies can pull the upset, but need to win their first game against Penn State first.

[DoctorMu]

Here's an image of the near Mercury and Venus conjunction:

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Headed to Des Moines for the first two rounds of the tourney.

Snow and teens/20s! Love it.

Wish I were there. Driving to Greensboro area and beyond, but the NCAAT committee pulled a switcheroo sending Duke to Orland.

A&M was seeded #7 by spite to play t.u. I think the Aggies can pull the upset, but need to win their first game against Penn State first.

Are you a Duke fan too?

[spadilly]

Day 2 maps from the SPC: