March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 2:32 pm If it were up to me, there would be a 3/4 to 1 inch of rain every week of Summer. Whether that's one storm or a shower every day, I don't care.

Hot weather sucks.
Agreed on that. 8-)
txbear
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Sleet out in the western burbs this morning.
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jasons2k
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Yeah the SCW guys mentioned the possibility on their blog a couple of days ago. The bright banding on radar looks like sleet to me.
vci_guy2003
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Was sleeting all morning here in league city. Crazy. Thought it was bugs flying into the window. Glad to get some winter precip finally lol
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Katdaddy
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I just woke up and saw some small sleet pellets in W League City.
brazoriatx
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Yup! Took us long enough but we got our wintery weather lol getting sleet here in angleton
Cromagnum
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How could we possibly have sleet when it's 50 degrees outside? Are the upper winds that sufficiently cold?
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don
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 11:27 am How could we possibly have sleet when it's 50 degrees outside? Are the upper winds that sufficiently cold?
The upper levels are cold with 850mb temps at or below freezing.
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Screenshot 2023-03-18 at 11-14-43 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:20 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:42 am lets hope not, i dont want a stormy summer lol
Are you crazy? Lol what’s up with you and your dislike for rain?
We need some friggin' rain this summer. CLL went months without rain + temps over 100F every day. No thank you.

I'm out of town and sorry to miss some beautiful weather at home. CLL got 0.75 in of rain. Good enough.

The weather here in NC and VA is cool but awesome. Unfortunately, I've been doing too much driving GA, SC, NC, VA and not enough walking/running, but I would give anything for another month or two of this to get in shape at home,. lol
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jasons2k
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Ended up with 1.08”

The NWS had lowered my forecast low down to 33. I gambled and didn’t cover anything. My low was 40. Happy for that bust. Now I can store the freeze covers away until next fall.

P.S. - the 10-day forecast looks great! 70’s and 80’s with a few chances of rain —> perfect for me!
Stratton20
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Todays weather is picture perfect, if only summer could be like this! Ill take 50’s every day please! Beats that horrible humidity, cant work outside in that
Last edited by Stratton20 on Mon Mar 20, 2023 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 201215
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
715 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

After a cold start, daytime heating could be limited as mid and high
clouds begin to increase from the W/SW through the day. At the lower
levels, southeast winds are expected to return as surface high pres-
sure shifts further to the east. But despite the weak WAA/increasing
dewpoints, high temperatures today will remain from 10 to 15 degrees
below normal: ranging from the upper 50s across the northern half of
the CWA to the lower and mid 60s south.

Tonight won`t be nearly as cold as last night with WAA/onshore winds
picking up markedly in response to a couple of strong mid level dis-
turbances deepening/moving across the Southern Plains. This tighten-
ing gradient will help to set up a 25-35kt southerly LLJ over SE TX,
and with PWs surging in from the Gulf (initially around 1.1-1.3" for
the overnight/very early Tues morning hours), we could see isolated/
widely scattered showers across our SW/W counties after midnight to-
night. These lowish rain chances (~20%) will continue into Tue after
noon (as PWs peak from 1.3-1.5")...with the best/higher chances over
the western 2/3rds of the FA. Per the return of warm/moist Gulf air,
high temp temperatures on Tues will climb into the lower and mid 70s
with lows Tues night in the lower to mid 60 (which are forecasted to
be the highs for today!! *yikes*). 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Wednesday will be the start of a couple warm and humid days across the
area under persistent/strengthening onshore winds due to a tightening
pressure gradient. Both days will be on the breezy/windy side with winds
even staying up during the overnight hours on Wednesday night. Inland
highs will be in the 80s on both Wednesday (low 80s) and Thursday (mid
80s), and have continued the previous forecast package trend of edging
these highs a degree or two above guidance. It will not cool down much
overnight on Wednesday night, and expect mid to upper 60s for almost
the entire area. Heading on into late Thursday night, we`ll see our
next cold front edging into our northern/western counties. After low
rain chances in these areas Thursday afternoon and evening, look for
increasing chances during the overnight hours with activity spreading
eastward and southward toward morning. The front will move across
Southeast Texas during the day on Friday with a majority of the area
seeing showers and thunderstorms (generally better chances and higher
amounts north, lower chances/amounts toward the Matagorda Bay area).
With Friday`s expected clouds/rains, highs should generally be in the
mid to upper 70s), but those 80s are back to the area over the weekend
with rain chances returning on Sunday as an onshore flow sets up once
again.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 711 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Will be continuing with VFR conditions even as mid/high cloud decks
continue to move into the region from the W/SW today. Closer to the
surface, winds will be shifting to the east then southeast through-
out this afternoon. These onshore winds will be strengthening as we
head into the evening/overnight hours as the next disturbance moves
into and deepens over the Southern Plains. This warm moist flow off
the Gulf could produce isolated showers during the overnight period
(mostly after midnight through sunrise Tues)...with most of the ac-
tivity well west of the TAF sites. These chances should shift a bit
more east by Tues afternoon...but not confident enough to include a
mention in the IAH TAF at this time. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 428 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Increasing onshore winds will return to the area today and will persist
into Thursday night. Some caution flags will probably need to be upgraded
to advisories for the upward trend in winds and building seas. Patchy
late night through early morning sea fog might be possible Wednesday
and Thursday, but gusty winds might limit the fog potential. The next
cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms is expected to
move into the region on Friday.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 51 72 65 / 0 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 60 52 72 66 / 0 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 64 57 72 67 / 0 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ163-164-178-
179-200.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 PM CDT this afternoon
through late tonight for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Batiste
Cromagnum
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Are we getting the HGX radar back up anytime soon?
spadilly
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 9:32 am Are we getting the HGX radar back up anytime soon?
I was just coming here to post the same question. At least it's been a calm few days since it went down.
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jasons2k
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Unfortunately no update. They apparently won’t know what’s actually broken until a tech is onsite.
FTMHGX

KHGX is currently down. A technician has been alerted, but a return
to service is unknown at this time.

Nearby radars to use include HOU TDWR, IAH TDWR, KCRP, KLCH, and KGRK.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210854
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
354 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

With onshore low-level winds in place across the region, temperat-
ures and moisture levels have been on the increase overnight. And
per obs/radar, areas of light rain/drizzle have been noted across
western portions of the CWA so far this morning. Will continue to
carry low POPs (~20%) today with the higher/better chances likely
west of I-45 through this afternoon. These increased rain chances
are courtesy of a mid-level short-wave moving across the Southern
Plains today. As this system moves further E/NE tonight/tomorrow,
the weakening gradient (and WAA) should lead to decreased chances
for rain tonight/tomorrow. But, it does look like the warmer more
humid air mass will remain in place across SE TX as onshore winds
(and clouds) persist.

Temperatures today are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s for
the CWA...then warming even more tomorrow...into the upper 70s to
around 80. Low temperatures will range from the mid and upper 60s
for both tonight and tomorrow night. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

We`ll be situated on the western periphery of a mid level ridge
across the central/eastern Gulf on Thurs. In the llvls, a fairly
tight pressure gradient will be in place so would anticipate warm,
breezy and humid conditions. Can`t totally rule out some iso waa
shra, but chances should be low enough to leave the mention out of
the fcst for now.

Heading into Thurs night and Fri, the ridge transitions further east
and an upper trof should be making its way into northern and western
parts of the state. Its associated sfc dryline/front is expected to
move into the region during the day Friday. PW`s climb to 1.7-1.9"
in advance along with a 40-45kt ssw llvl jet. Look for some precip
to develop along the sfc boundary at some point to our north & west
and eventually track ese across the CWA. In regards to severe wx
potential...the better forcing should generally be situated to our
north and overall instability is in question (dependent on timing
and/or capping situation). Assuming things follow the model
consensus of an earlier dryline/frontal passage, chances for
significant wx should be on the lower end...though we`ll need to
keep an eye on fcst trends for any later passages (more available
instability).

A drier airmass briefly fills in Fri night into Saturday. It`ll
be short lived with onshore winds fcst to quickly resume late
Saturday along with a gradual return of Gulf moisture & rain
chances Sunday into early next week. The next front is penciled
in next Monday night or Tuesday. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

A tight pressure gradient has led to moderate-strong onshore winds
and building seas overnight. Will be extending the small craft
advisory thru the day and into the evening offshore. Caution flags
in the bays/nearshore may or may not need to be upgraded to
advisories later today and will monitor trends. Have also introduced
a High rip current risk along area beaches thru the evening with
elevated seas/surf in place.

Otherwise, moderate onshore winds are expected for the next several
days. Wind speeds might diminish just enough Wednesday night to
allow for some patchy sea fog development around the Galveston
nearshore waters. A weak Pacific cold front is currently forecast to
move into the region on Friday with light to moderate offshore winds
in its wake. Southeast winds are forecast to resume later on
Saturday. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Will likely introduce the mention of light precipitation (-R/DZ)
into some of our terminals with the 09Z update for this morning.
Otherwise, the mostly MVFR CIG forecast will continue across the
area for this afternoon and on through tonight. This elevated SE
flow (8-13kts) should continue into this afternoon...then weaken-
ing tonight (4-7kts). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 67 81 68 / 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 73 67 80 68 / 20 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 67 74 68 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$
Cromagnum
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HGX radar looks to be back online.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221158
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
658 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

With moderate to strong S/SE winds persisting, patchy areas of light
rain/drizzle across are ongoing across parts of the FA this morning.
This activity should be on the decrease by this afternoon as the on-
shore flow weakens in response to the exiting lower to mid level dis-
turbance across the Southern Plains. Otherwise, not a lot of changes
with the warm/humid forecast already in place for today...with highs
ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Per this ongoing fetch from
the Gulf, some patchy fog will be possible overnight with lows main-
ly in the mid and upper 60s with a few spots around 70.

S/SE winds will be on the increase tomorrow with the development of
another surface low near the TX/OK Panhandles. This system combined
with the next cold front approaching from the WNW could tighten the
pressure gradient enough to produce patchy light rain or drizzle by
late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Highs tomorrow should be a bit
warmer (given a bit more sun and an increased SW flow at the lower/
mid levels) with temperatures climbing into the mid 80s across much
of the region (upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast). 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

Mid/upper trough will be tracking ewd across the Southern Plains
on Friday. Looking for a thin band of showers and tstms to develop
along the associated surface dryline to our nw in the morning then
push ese across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Better forcing
and instability looks to generally be situated to our north (and
eventually east), so would anticipate the higher probabilities for
any strong-severe cells to mostly bypass the area. Drier air filters
into the area Friday evening setting up what should be a pretty
nice day on Sat.

Nice wx appears to be short lived, however, with a warm front
moving back inland Saturday night & Sunday. Increased moisture
levels combined with daytime heating should lead to some sct
shra/tstms across scntl parts of the CWA during the day Sunday.

Sunday night into Monday night, a shallow, slow moving cold front
is expected to sag into the region. The combination of this
boundary, lingering moisture and diffuse disturbances riding
across in the mostly zonal flow aloft should bring additional
chances for scattered precipitation into the early to mid parts
of next week. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

Not a lot of changes from the previous TAF package with a mix of
MVFR and VFR ceilings expected through the afternoon. S/SE winds
should be a bit lower for tonight (as the gradient weakens a bit
in response to the exiting system over the Southern Plains). So,
MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible once again tonight into early Thu
morning. Some patchy sea fog could develop along the coast (GLS)
overnight. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

Onshore winds have slightly diminished, but buoy 42019 is still
reporting 8ft seas and they`ll take a while to subside. Will
extend the small craft advisory through the afternoon and also
issue another high risk of rip currents statement for area
beaches. Warm, moist air has made it back over the cooler
nearshore waters and we`ll probably see some patchy sea fog
development tonight and again Thursday night. Otherwise, onshore
flow will continue into Friday in advance of a diffuse dryline/front
that will make it into the waters late Friday afternoon and night.
Winds will veer to the sw-w-n as this occurs and be fairly light.
Warm front tracks back north and inland Saturday night & Sunday
bringing a return of se winds. Next front is penciled in for
sometime Mon or Mon night. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 68 84 68 / 10 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 81 68 84 70 / 10 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 73 67 74 68 / 10 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Batiste
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

MVFR ceilings will lift this afternoon then return this evening
and persist through much of Thursday morning. Breezy southerly
winds will continue, subsiding some overnight. Wood
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:10 am HGX radar looks to be back online.
NOUS64 KHGX 221730
FTMHGX

KHGX radar has returned to service.
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