March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Thundersleet
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Weather is always, needless to say, subject to change.
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DoctorMu
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FROPA finally made it through about midnight after 24 hours of knocking on the door. Pleasantly cool NE winds.
Cromagnum
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I sure wish we could get some rain down here and get lawns and gardens kicked into high gear finally. I guess it's a mixed blessing though since I just had neck surgery the other day and can't mow anyways.
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tireman4
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0
FXUS64 KHGX 101125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 328 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

A weak cold front has made its way into the area, and the winds have
shifted at Brenham and Conroe, but not yet at Columbus, Katy, Hooks,
or IAH. Given the gradient in dewpoint and theta-e behind this wind
shift, there`s pretty solid confidence that this is indeed the
front, though most rain/thunder is occurring behind the surface
front, as it is likely elevated. Coastward of the front, winds are
still light but more onshore than anything else, with dewpoints up
around 70 degrees.

Most of the night`s convection passed north of the forecast area as
it was elevated and developing behind the front. One thunderstorm
scraped across northern Houston County north of Crockett, but other
than that, the northern part of the area has seen light showers at
the very most, with the rest of the area staying dry. Over the next
several hours, the front will continue to make its way coastward,
weakening as it does so. Some showers and maybe even a stray
thunderstorm will be possible behind the front as well this morning.
However, as everything makes its way coastward, our already small
chances will dwindle as this weak front pushes into an even more
unsupportive environment for convection. Across Southeast Texas, it
will be one of those mornings where you shouldn`t be surprised if
there`s a quick shower on you...but you don`t want to be holding
your breath waiting on it to rain, either. There is a subtle bit of
shortwave ridging apparent in the upper pattern just to our west, so
I`m not looking for any more rainfall development than the
smattering of showers we`re seeing now.

In spite of its weakening, the front looks to reach the coast, and
push slightly offshore before the front washes out and onshore winds
begin to re-establish - first over the nearshore waters that saw a
wind shift this afternoon. Inland areas will see winds turn more
easterly tonight, and become southeasterly by morning - putting us
right back into the pre-frontal onshore flow regime.

As far as temperatures go, our brief window for whatever
cooler...okay, mainly drier...air today looks to hold highs in the
upper 60s and lower 70s in the northern half of the area, but still
allow highs in the upper 70s to around 80 closer to the coast. And
that`s about all she wrote for the influence of this airmass.
Dewpoints look to surge back overnight, and forecast lows tonight
are just a handful of degrees cooler than Wednesday night.
The far north may manage to slip into the upper 50s, but expect lows
to still be mired in the 60s elsewhere. This, of course, sets us up
for an even warmer day tomorrow, and I have most everyone reaching
into the 80s (extreme northern Houston County and immediately on the
Gulf the only exclusions) with mid-80s emerging right across a broad
central swath of the area.

I promise there`s change coming via another front, but it`s not in
the short term - Saturday night looks even a bit warmer still, and
those around Galveston Bay and the Houston metro might struggle to
fall below 70 degrees by Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

A pattern shift arrives on Sunday as a developing surface low
located roughly over the Arklatex region drags a stronger surface
cold front through the area, allowing for an intrusion of much
cooler and drier air than the unseasonable conditions of late. A
few showers may accompany the approach of the front, but this
should by in large by a dry event with environmental conditions
favoring thunderstorm development better to our east and
northeast. The timing of the front makes the temperature forecast
somewhat tricky. Latest NBM indicates a later frontal passage with
the MaxT IQR ranging between 84-92 in Houston (deterministic of
85). However, most recent global model runs favor an earlier
frontal passage which is not reflected in this blend. As such,
have adjusted high temperatures downward on Sunday afternoon with
temperatures north of I-10 mainly in the 70s/near 80 and areas to
the south in the lower 80s. This will need to be watched closely
in the coming days given the timing of the front during the day on
Sunday.

Behind the departing front, moderate northeast winds and resultant
CAA will allow for a surge of cool dry air to enter the area. We
return to more seasonable conditions on Monday as highs max out in
the upper 60s while overnight lows dip into the 40s/lower 50s. The
approach of a midlevel shortwave on Tuesday may bring some showers
to the immediate coast. However, precipitation looks to be
concentrated mainly offshore per the most recent global model
solutions.

Onshore winds return in earnest by early Wednesday morning as a
broad area of surface high pressure becomes situated in the
Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will result in gradually increasing
temperatures and dew points ahead of the next front`s approach on
Thursday night/early Friday morning. Highs on Wednesday will
reach the mid/upper 70s, and will approach 80 on Thursday. Showers
and storms associated with the aforementioned front look to move
into the area by late Thursday night/early Friday. However, this
event remains 7-8 days away and as such little confidence in the
exact timing of the front currently exists.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

Weak front pushing its way coastward, but bogging down as it does
so. Highest confidence of breaking into drier post-frontal airmass
up north at CLL and UTS, but am optimistically bringing at least a
short period of low-end VFR to all terminals as front *should*
make the Gulf. However, much of the morning for metro terminals
coastward begin in near or in IFR (or worse), including patchy
dense fog for LBX and GLS. This Gulf airmass will begin to push
its way back tonight, and degrade conditions everywhere to MVFR;
first at the coast (where even some IFR CIGs possible), and
gradually worsening inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

Dense fog has largely improved across Galveston Bay, the Ship
Channel, and the nearshore waters. As a result, the Dense Fog
Advisory has been cancelled, although some areas of fog will
likely persist through mid-morning. The approach of a weak frontal
boundary in the next few hours will result in a brief northerly
wind shift and likely a brief reprieve from marine fog
development. A second, stronger front will approach on Sunday.
While no storms are expected to accompany it, moderate to strong
offshore winds will develop in its wake. As a result, cautions
and/or advisories may be needed.

Cady

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 59 85 65 / 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 65 85 70 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 76 67 77 70 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 59 85 65 / 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 65 85 70 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 76 67 77 70 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cady
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:02 am I sure wish we could get some rain down here and get lawns and gardens kicked into high gear finally. I guess it's a mixed blessing though since I just had neck surgery the other day and can't mow anyways.
Man, wishing you a speedy recovery!!

The run this morning was pleasant. I enjoyed the slightly cooler weather. I think my ideal run temp. has lowered.
JuneEl
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My question is- how are our water levels in the reservoirs and rivers that satisfy Houston's water needs for the summer.? Are they doing ok? Or do we need a tropical storm- not a hurricane- to fill them up? How is drought monitoring in our area doing?
JDsGN
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JuneEl wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 12:15 pm My question is- how are our water levels in the reservoirs and rivers that satisfy Houston's water needs for the summer.? Are they doing ok? Or do we need a tropical storm- not a hurricane- to fill them up? How is drought monitoring in our area doing?
Lakes and reservoirs are all full in and around the Houston area. Central Texas still needs a lot of help https://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide
Stratton20
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man if this was january or February , than the setup on the gfs would be amazing for a winter storm, does look like the global models are in good agreement on a system that digs pretty far south next week
Cpv17
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Still don’t really see any decent rain events on the horizon. Next week looks kinda meh.
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jasons2k
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Already saw some June bugs tonight. Crazy.
Cromagnum
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jasons2k wrote: Sat Mar 11, 2023 10:27 pm Already saw some June bugs tonight. Crazy.
Been seeing them for a few weeks now here.
Stratton20
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had one land on my head tonight, i think i just about went nuts, i cant stand those june bugs haha
Iceresistance
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SOI index starting to tank and drop, today's Daily value is -11.9
JuneEl
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Thanks for the info on water reservoirs in the state. Now I know the the SOI determines whether we are in a El Niño or La Niña year. Would you please explain the differences, for a relative weather newbie.
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don
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Severe weather may be on the menu later this week.With decent shear and no cap in place.
Screenshot 2023-03-13 at 08-50-41 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave
trough will eject over the southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday. At
least upper 50s to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints should return
northward ahead of this upper trough across parts of central/east
TX/OK into the ArkLaTex vicinity. As mid-level temperatures cool and
daytime heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast to
develop by Thursday afternoon along and ahead of a surface dryline.

Ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should encourage robust
convective development along much of the length of the dryline late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong deep-layer shear will easily
support organized convection, including the potential for supercells
with a large hail and damaging wind threat. Additional severe
convection may develop Thursday night across portions of east TX
into the ArkLaTex in a strengthening low-level warm advection
regime. Even though low-level moisture should remain somewhat
limited, enough low-level shear should be present to support some
threat for a few tornadoes as well. Confidence in scattered severe
convection occurring has increased enough to introduce a 15% severe
area for Thursday.
Attachments
day48prob.gif
Cromagnum
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I like that first graphic. Not the 2nd one so much. Will have to keep an eye on trends.
Iceresistance
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don wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:15 am Severe weather may be on the menu later this week.With decent shear and no cap in place.

Screenshot 2023-03-13 at 08-50-41 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave
trough will eject over the southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday. At
least upper 50s to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints should return
northward ahead of this upper trough across parts of central/east
TX/OK into the ArkLaTex vicinity. As mid-level temperatures cool and
daytime heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast to
develop by Thursday afternoon along and ahead of a surface dryline.

Ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should encourage robust
convective development along much of the length of the dryline late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong deep-layer shear will easily
support organized convection, including the potential for supercells
with a large hail and damaging wind threat. Additional severe
convection may develop Thursday night across portions of east TX
into the ArkLaTex in a strengthening low-level warm advection
regime. Even though low-level moisture should remain somewhat
limited, enough low-level shear should be present to support some
threat for a few tornadoes as well. Confidence in scattered severe
convection occurring has increased enough to introduce a 15% severe
area for Thursday.
Yep, I'm in the severe weather potential for Thursday.
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jasons2k
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Weather app shows 36 on Monday morning.

But awhile back it had 37 for this past weekend too. Not even close.
Cromagnum
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Can we bottle up the weather we have had the last two days? It doesn't get a lot better.
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