March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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EPS and GEFS look amazing😁
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don
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Severe weather Thursday is conditional on the cap breaking,all modes of severe weather is probable if the cap breaks.For right now models are breaking the cap north of I-10 especially.While the worst should be in the Arklatex,a local outbreak of severe weather is a real possibility even here locally if the cap breaks as shear will be fairly high.
Heading into Thursday afternoon, an upper level trof and
associated Pacific cold front will be making its way closer to the
area from the west. Breezy south winds in advance will allow for
some 1.5-1.7" to flow into the region. Expect some shra/tstm
development to our northwest along the surface boundary late in
the day, filling in southward, and quickly sweeping esewd across
most of the region in the evening. Capping around H85 remains a
limiting factor for widespread severe storms, however recent model
runs show the possibility that it may erode enough and/or be
overcome by sufficient llvl convergence across northern parts of
the region. Should this be the case and the storms are able to tap
into the instability/shear, severe cells will be a possibility.
All hazards would be at play (straight line winds, hail and an
isolated tornado) along and ahead of the front. Flooding won`t be
a concern due to the fast movement.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:05 pm EPS and GEFS look amazing😁
I still don’t see any cold on the horizon. Nothing cold the next 10 days.
Stratton20
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18z GFS says winter aint over yet
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don
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.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Mid-upper trof and associated Pacific cold front will be making
its way across Texas during the day. Breezy & warm conditions
will prevail with an increasing llvl jet in advance of this system.
Showers and embedded tstms will eventually develop along/ahead of
the surface boundary then trek wnw-ese across the region sometime
in the 3pm-10pm timeframe. Slight timing differences exist between
the global models at this point. While =/-3 hours typically
wouldn`t be significant concern, it could make a difference in
regards to the potential capping and available instability in
play...and hence the overall severe weather threat & locations.
For now, one cannot completely rule out severe wx anywhere, but
more favorable locations might be north of I-10. All wx hazards
will conditionally be possible (wind/hail/tornado). Hires model
data should be available by this time tomorrow so hopefully we`ll
be able to start narrowing down the finer details
Cromagnum
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Warmest February ever for us? I'm curious how the record stacks up.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
544 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Another warm and humid day is on tap for SETX today. Expect cloud
cover to continue overspreading the region as WAA intensifies ahead
of the next system arriving tomorrow. In addition, a progressive
shortwave/vort max will be moving just north of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods area, resulting in isolated rain and/or storm
during the day. Looking at 850 mb winds, models continue to support
a moderate SW to NE LLJ moving over the region, allowing for a good
surge of low-level moisture to be advected over the Coastal Bend and
SETX. This will also result in breezy conditions with gusts up to 25
mph possible in the afternoon. Highs will once again climb into the
mid to upper 80s inland, and in the 70s over the coastal areas.
Overcast skies will stick around tonight, along with light to
moderate southerly winds. Overnight lows will remain on the mild
side with readings from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Attention then turns to Thursday as scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the evening. A deepening
upper-level trough -- currently spinning across the Western CONUS
per water vapor satellite imagery -- will make its way east-
southeast across the southern Rockies today, then east-northeast
across TX on Thursday. Its associated Pacific cold front will move
over SETX in the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
showers with a few thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the FROPA
in the morning and afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show 700mb
temperatures ranging from 10-14C, mainly south of a line from CLL
to CXO. Therefore, any convection or thunderstorms ahead of the front
will need to fight this capping inversion. The main concern or focus
for severe weather potential could be late Thursday afternoon into
the evening hours as the aforementioned frontal boundary moves
through. SPC has placed most of the region under an Enhanced and
Slight Risk of Severe Weather on their Day 2 Outlook. This seems
appropriate, especially for our far northern/northwestern counties,
as the environment becomes less stable along with an increasing
deep layer shear (25-35+ kts) and strengthening LLJ. All hazards
will be at play. Initial storms could bring a threat of hail and
gusty winds, then damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the
main risk in the evening. Details on placement and specific threats
will be monitored closely as high resolution forecast models converge
on a solution later today.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Friday will start off breezy and colder in the wake of the latest
front. Highs will only reach the 60s while lows dip into the 40s.
High pressure will remain overhead through most of the weekend,
leading to mostly clear skies, highs in the upper 70s, and lows in
the 50s to 60s. By Sunday evening, sfc high pressure begins to
push east, allowing onshore flow to return and therefore, heat and
relative humidity will gradually climb. By Monday and Tuesday,
Southeast Texas will be back in the 80s for daytime highs while
overnight lows barely dip below 70. Noticeable rain chances don`t
return in the long-term forecast and beyond.

Walts

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Widespread IFR to MVFR ceilings and isolated MVFR visibility
prevail across all terminals early this morning. Low clouds will
gradually lift through the morning hours, scattering out by
midday/early afternoon. High clouds, on the other hand, will stick
around through much of the TAF cycle. A weak disturbance will
move north of the terminals today, resulting a few showers and an
isolated thunder near UTS. Given slight rain/storm chances, did
not include VCSH or VCTS in TAFs. Breezy southerly winds are
expected today, with the higher gusts in the afternoon. Another
round of MVFR to LIFR ceilings are again expected this evening
into Thursday.

JM


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Winds and seas will start to increase today ahead of the next cold
front on Thursday evening. Caution flags could be needed as early
tonight and Advisory flags needed as early as Thursday afternoon.
Patchy sea fog is expected to linger near the Bays and our
nearshore waters until winds become stronger and mix out this fog.
The front is expected to reach our coastal waters early Friday
morning, but from 6pm to midnight on Thursday ahead of this front,
winds and seas will increase even further with occasional gusts
near Gale expected in our offshore waters. Seas will build to
8-9ft as well for our offshore waters and up to 7ft for our
nearshore waters. Once the front pushes through our coastal waters
early Friday morning, strong offshore winds in its wake could
lead to low water conditions during low tide. PETSS model
guidance is hinting at values reaching -0.5 to -1.0 MLLW. Winds
and seas will start to subside late Friday evening and into the
weekend.

Walts

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 69 81 48 / 20 20 30 70
Houston (IAH) 85 71 81 54 / 10 10 20 70
Galveston (GLS) 77 69 76 58 / 10 10 10 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Walts
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Walts
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 11:02 am Warmest February ever for us? I'm curious how the record stacks up.
In Houston, yes. In CLL - warmer than average. We did break a few record lows.

It's amazing to me that we get days with the DP near 70°F in the winter - I've never seen as many until this "winter." The GoM temps have been in the 50s and now low 60s. You'd think the Gulf would act like a swamp cooler and keep dewpoints close to sea temperature. :roll:

If it's going to be in the 80s and not rain in late winter, give me some dry Mexican air. 8-)
Stratton20
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12z Euro is very interesting
Cromagnum
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How so? I just see a rain band coming through. Pretty standard looking front to me, unless I'm missing something?
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don
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Not a surprise, but look at that cap.Don't expect to see much tomorrow with that around.😉
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Cpv17
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don wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 2:08 pm Not a surprise, but look at that cap.Don't expect to see much tomorrow with that around.😉
It’s because the low will be too far to our north.
Iceresistance
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DFW and Texarkana are going to be absolutely hammered tomorrow.

I may get some storms, but severe weather? That is too close to call for me.
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tireman4
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US64 KHGX 012113
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
313 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

The focus of the short term forecast will obviously be the
potential thunderstorm event out at the end of the short term
period tomorrow night. We`ll get there, but let`s run through the
time leading up to it first.

This afternoon is warm and partly to mostly cloudy with breezy
southerly winds. We`re tapping into a bit of a low level jet,
helping mix down gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Sugar Land even managed a
gust to around 40 mph today. And while that should persist through
the afternoon, we`ll make a tradeoff with sundown as the gusts
fade off, and we get a return of low stratus and some patchy fog.

We`ll also be looking for precipitable water to be building to
around 1.5 inches with dewpoints rising to around 70 degrees. Pair
that with some gentle upglide from the persistent southerly winds,
and we`ve got a good shot at seeing some streamer shower activity
late tonight into tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow, we begin to look more into thunderstorm threat. Expect
southerlies to become a bit blustery again as the low level jet
rebuilds and sometimes mixes some good gusts down to the surface.
But while that LLJ is more southerly and has a Gulf connection
implying support for upward motion, we continue to have solid
southwesterly flow at 700 mb, hammering out a stout cap for much
of the day. In addition, mid-level heights are fairly high and
a vorticity corridor aloft is still off to our northwest. Because
of this, I`m thinking we are unlikely to manage much more than
some showers under this cap for much of the day, in spite of the
fact that HREF mean CAPE is in the 1000-1500 J/Kg range. Of
course, despite that CAPE, the strength of the cap is shown that
the HREF shows our entire forecast area capped to some extent,
with a strong cap from roughly the Houston metro southward.

We may finally see something start to change tomorrow night. We`ll
begin to lose some instability as the sun goes down, but will be
at least somewhat offset by cooling aloft as well. The cap still
looks pretty tough, but between some weakening and forced
mechanical lifting by the incoming cold front, will give us some
opportunity for some stronger storms - especially since the
environment may be supportive of preserving existing storms moving
in from the west, even if it`s not enough for new development,
necessarily. This is likely going to happen in the northern half
of the area, while the coastal portion of the area stays more
capped and sticks with showers and some embedded sub-severe
storms.

Even in the north, we should find ourselves more on the southern
fringe of this event. A more significant severe outbreak looks
like it could occur north of our area - and depending on how
things play out exactly, we may catch the southern bits of that.
In general, all severe modes are possible, though I`d expect hail
to drop off pretty rapidly as CAPE falls and storms line out. From
there, damaging straight-line wind gusts look to become the
primary threat, while a tornado or two will also be possible.

Luchs

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Benign conditions expected for much of the long term period. After
Thursday`s cold frontal passage, dry cooler air will push across
Southeast TX on Friday, resulting in sunny skies and high temperatures
in the mid 60s to low 70s. A warming trend sets up this upcoming
weekend as southerly flow brings an gentle push of warm moist air
from the Gulf, highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. A stronger
surge in moisture comes through late Sunday through Tuesday, and
will bring up the highs in the mid 80s each day. With this
moisture, we will also have a pattern of cloudy skies at night and
partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. The next best chance for
rain could be on Tuesday, but chances are low given the strong
mid level ridging expected across the region. Cannot rule out some
light passing showers, however.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

CIGs improving through the morning after early low stratus.
However, this is occurring in tandem with breezy southerly winds.
Gusty winds with generally VFR should prevail through the
afternoon, but will trade again with sundown. As gusts fall off
this evening, low CIGs with some patchy fog should roar back. CIGs
likely to be the limiting factor with IFR and localized LIFR
coming in and lesser VSBY restrictions. Only exceptions may be LBX
and GLS, where sea fog may generate more significant sea fog.
Repeat again tomorrow morning - lifting cloud bases should be
replaced by gusty southerlies. Showers and storms lie beyond this
forecast period.

Luchs

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Onshore flow will strengthen to around 15 KTS late tonight
through Thursday morning and then to 20 to 25 KTS in the afternoon
ahead of the next FROPA. The cold front is expected to push
through the coastal waters Thursday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible ahead and along the front, some may be
strong to severe. NW winds of 20-30 KTS and gusts near gale
strength at times will develop in the wake of the front. Caution
flags and Advisories will be issued from late tonight into Friday
morning. Also, low water conditions are possible Friday morning
during low tide times. Winds relax and seas subside during the day
Friday. E winds expected on Monday and onshore flow will return
early next week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 81 48 66 / 20 30 90 0
Houston (IAH) 71 81 54 69 / 20 40 80 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 76 58 70 / 20 30 60 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...24
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jasons2k
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Well the NWS has me at an 80% chance of rain tomorrow night. We’ll see.
Cromagnum
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Brazoria County may not get anything besides some wind.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 5:51 pm Brazoria County may not get anything besides some wind.
Same here in Wharton County. Everything is always north of me and you.
Thundersleet
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I am still waiting to see if and when any Canadian/Arctic cold front and dome of High Pressure will bring back much more Winter like highs and lows even if only for a short span of time. Personally, I would not mind a chilly early Spring during most of this month into April.
dp6
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For any night owls, that lone storm that produced softball-sized hail near Dilley has held together as it sped east and the core seems to have intensified just now near Cuero. Warned with golf ball hail now. On track to hit Sugar Land in about 3 hours. Edit: Make that sometime in the 4am hour for Sugar Land. I forgot that the forum clock is way screwed up. Perhaps it will fall back 24 minutes when will spring forward an hour in a week and a half....
Last edited by dp6 on Thu Mar 02, 2023 1:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
Thundersleet
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Hey, if Winter 2022-2023 turns out to be a poor or wimpy Winter due to La Niña then I accept that, as much as I not like it. At least we have October-December sooo……
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