March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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What will the first month of Spring bring us? Showers? Warmth? Cold?
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Lots of rain (30 days preferably) and below average temps please!

I loathe Spring almost as much as Summer because of allergies. Rain keeps it at bay.
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Stratton20
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Im going with a nuts guess and saying March will be below average temperature wise
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snowman65
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right now Im just trying to figure out the weather for Branson, MO March 12-17. We'll be on vacation. Im assuming some colder temps (highs in 50's?) but more concerned with rain, etc.
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DoctorMu
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Probably all warm sector + severe season in CLL. HOU gets the cap.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Feb 13, 2023 4:27 pm Lots of rain (30 days preferably) and below average temps please!

I loathe Spring almost as much as Summer because of allergies. Rain keeps it at bay.
Would be nice. Keep the A/C and sprinklers in the OFF position! 8-)
Stratton20
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March is looking colder by every day lol, the NAO has been pretty positive so thats one big factor of the cold air staying out west besides the PNA, the NAO is expected to tank over the next 10-14 days leading to the SE ridge being flattened over time, the effects of the SSWE are showing up on the GFS now, I think people are going to need the jacket a lot here in texas for march lol
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Last edited by Stratton20 on Sun Feb 19, 2023 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Good
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Stratton20
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Here is the 12z GEFS through the next 10-12 days, currently the SE ridge is dominating our weather pattern (bottom picture) with the cold air focused out west, however with the NAO expected to go negative after the 1st of march, we can see the significant changes in the upper level pattern that occur, a change is coming folks, just give it some time😉

Troughing over the central US would favor cooler and wetter weather in march
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Stratton20
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Now thats a wonderful 3-4 week outlook!!!😁😁
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Thundersleet
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That is what I like to see.
Stratton20
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Lol the overnight Euro run had a 1060 MB high dropping down into NW Canada, thats some chilly stuff haha
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I'd love about 4-5 more freezes in a row followed by 3 months of straight rain so the **** pollen and hay allergies don't rear their head in force.

By the time it gets too hot, they disperse, so lets go from really cold to really wet to Summer in late June.
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don
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Need to keep an eye on the storm late this week. (especially areas north of I-10) It looks to be powerful with not only a severe weather threat but also a non storm wind damage threat.Models are already showing a squall line developing,with strong winds wrapping around the backside of the low afterwards.(Both the EURO & GFS have winds gusting over 60 mph behind the front in some areas)SPC already mentioning a widespread outbreak may be possible.
day5prob.gif
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D5/THU...

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday as
moisture advection occurs across much of the Southeast.
Thunderstorms will be possible across the moist sector from east
Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and northward into the
mid Mississippi Valley. At this time, any severe threat is expected
to remain isolated on Wednesday, due to weak instability and limited
large-scale ascent.

...Thursday/Day 5 and Friday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward on Thursday from
the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. By late afternoon on
Thursday, model forecasts develop a corridor of moderate instability
in east Texas and have strong deep-layer shear present over much of
the southern Plains. This environment should support severe storms
capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps some tornadoes. A
widespread outbreak of severe weather will be possible beginning
Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. The
potential for severe storms should shift eastward across the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states
Thursday night where the threat for wind damage, hail and tornadoes
should continue.
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us_model-en_modez_2023022612_117_490_379.png
Screenshot 2023-02-26 at 12-23-42 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
Cpv17
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don wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 12:52 pm Need to keep an eye on the storm late this week. (especially areas north of I-10) It looks to be powerful with not only a severe weather threat but also a non storm wind damage threat.Models are already showing a squall line developing,with strong winds wrapping around the backside of the low afterwards.(Both the EURO & GFS have winds gusting over 60 mph behind the front in some areas)SPC already mentioning a widespread outbreak may be possible.

day5prob.gif
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D5/THU...

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday as
moisture advection occurs across much of the Southeast.
Thunderstorms will be possible across the moist sector from east
Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and northward into the
mid Mississippi Valley. At this time, any severe threat is expected
to remain isolated on Wednesday, due to weak instability and limited
large-scale ascent.

...Thursday/Day 5 and Friday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward on Thursday from
the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. By late afternoon on
Thursday, model forecasts develop a corridor of moderate instability
in east Texas and have strong deep-layer shear present over much of
the southern Plains. This environment should support severe storms
capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps some tornadoes. A
widespread outbreak of severe weather will be possible beginning
Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. The
potential for severe storms should shift eastward across the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states
Thursday night where the threat for wind damage, hail and tornadoes
should continue.
As usual, the worst of it will be NE of us.
Stratton20
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can we just skip severe weather season please lol
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:05 pm
don wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 12:52 pm Need to keep an eye on the storm late this week. (especially areas north of I-10) It looks to be powerful with not only a severe weather threat but also a non storm wind damage threat.Models are already showing a squall line developing,with strong winds wrapping around the backside of the low afterwards.(Both the EURO & GFS have winds gusting over 60 mph behind the front in some areas)SPC already mentioning a widespread outbreak may be possible.

day5prob.gif
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D5/THU...

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday as
moisture advection occurs across much of the Southeast.
Thunderstorms will be possible across the moist sector from east
Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and northward into the
mid Mississippi Valley. At this time, any severe threat is expected
to remain isolated on Wednesday, due to weak instability and limited
large-scale ascent.

...Thursday/Day 5 and Friday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward on Thursday from
the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. By late afternoon on
Thursday, model forecasts develop a corridor of moderate instability
in east Texas and have strong deep-layer shear present over much of
the southern Plains. This environment should support severe storms
capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps some tornadoes. A
widespread outbreak of severe weather will be possible beginning
Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. The
potential for severe storms should shift eastward across the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states
Thursday night where the threat for wind damage, hail and tornadoes
should continue.
As usual, the worst of it will be NE of us.
I expect the worse to stay around tine arklotex. I'm more "interested" in the widespread gusty winds behind the front that may effect most of the state.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:20 pm can we just skip severe weather season please lol
No thanks! Give me round after round of thunderstorms (nothing that will do damage or impact lives) with several inches of rain spread out through spring. I love me a good storm. Gets my adrenaline pumping! Would love to see a tornado out here in the open pastures and fields.
Cromagnum
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What do you guys recommend for a home weather station? Our old cheapo La Crosse unit bit the dust finally. I don't necessarily need one with an anemometer, but it seems like all the ones that just do temp / humidity have big accuracy problems.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cromagnum wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:40 pm What do you guys recommend for a home weather station? Our old cheapo La Crosse unit bit the dust finally. I don't necessarily need one with an anemometer, but it seems like all the ones that just do temp / humidity have big accuracy problems.
I like the Ambient Weather Smart Station for the price. It’s worked well in the elements in Weimar.
Team #NeverSummer
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