March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
spadilly
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Day 3 outlook:
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don
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Looks like a potent MCS is going to move through on Thursday.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_69.png
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes should occur Thursday across
parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Upper troughing will progress eastward across the central CONUS on
Thursday. The northern portion of this upper trough should evolve
into a closed upper low over the northern Plains and adjacent parts
of central Canada through the period. Farther south, a lead
low-amplitude shortwave trough should quickly eject northeastward
through the day from the southern Plains into the MS Valley and
Midwest. Behind this lead wave, another shortwave trough with
associated strong mid/upper-level west-southwesterly jet is forecast
to overspread parts of TX/OK by late Thursday afternoon. There are
still notable differences in deterministic guidance regarding the
amplitude and location of this second shortwave trough by late
Thursday afternoon. The primary surface low, initially near the
KS/OK border, should develop northeastward towards the Midwest/Great
Lakes by Thursday evening in tandem with the lead shortwave trough.
An attendant cold front will sweep quickly southeastward over the
central/southern Plains and ArkLaTex region. A dryline should mix
eastward across central TX through Thursday afternoon.

There are some indications in guidance that convection may initiate
fairly early in the day over the open warm sector of east TX and
vicinity. This activity may be tied to persistent low-level warm
advection, and the glancing influence of the lead shortwave trough.
Gradually increasing low-level moisture and filtered diurnal heating
should support the development of at least weak instability across
these areas. With strong deep-layer shear expected, any
thunderstorms that be sustained could pose some severe threat.
Additional isolated convection will probably develop along the
dryline by late Thursday afternoon across parts of north/central TX
as the second shortwave trough approaches the southern Plains. This
activity may initially be supercellular with a threat for large hail
given steep mid-level lapse rates and potentially moderate
instability. With time, convection will likely grow upscale into an
MCS along the quickly advancing cold front. This MCS should have a
greater wind threat as it moves generally east-southeastward
Thursday evening/overnight across central/east TX, the ArkLaTex, and
eventually lower MS Valley. A rather strong low-level jet should
also be present over east TX into AR/LA Thursday evening. With ample
low-level shear forecast, any supercells that can form and remain
ahead of the cold front/MCS should pose a tornado threat.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Location: Weimar, TX
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Headed to Des Moines for the first two rounds of the tourney.

Snow and teens/20s! Love it.
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Cromagnum
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Little rogue rain cell just missed me south. Angleton and Danbury might have cashed in.
brazoriatx
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 4:47 pm Little rogue rain cell just missed me south. Angleton and Danbury might have cashed in.
We got about 3 mins of light sprinkles here in angleton. Not worth writing home about
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DoctorMu
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don wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:41 pm Looks like a potent MCS is going to move through on Thursday.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_69.png
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes should occur Thursday across
parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Upper troughing will progress eastward across the central CONUS on
Thursday. The northern portion of this upper trough should evolve
into a closed upper low over the northern Plains and adjacent parts
of central Canada through the period. Farther south, a lead
low-amplitude shortwave trough should quickly eject northeastward
through the day from the southern Plains into the MS Valley and
Midwest. Behind this lead wave, another shortwave trough with
associated strong mid/upper-level west-southwesterly jet is forecast
to overspread parts of TX/OK by late Thursday afternoon. There are
still notable differences in deterministic guidance regarding the
amplitude and location of this second shortwave trough by late
Thursday afternoon. The primary surface low, initially near the
KS/OK border, should develop northeastward towards the Midwest/Great
Lakes by Thursday evening in tandem with the lead shortwave trough.
An attendant cold front will sweep quickly southeastward over the
central/southern Plains and ArkLaTex region. A dryline should mix
eastward across central TX through Thursday afternoon.

There are some indications in guidance that convection may initiate
fairly early in the day over the open warm sector of east TX and
vicinity. This activity may be tied to persistent low-level warm
advection, and the glancing influence of the lead shortwave trough.
Gradually increasing low-level moisture and filtered diurnal heating
should support the development of at least weak instability across
these areas. With strong deep-layer shear expected, any
thunderstorms that be sustained could pose some severe threat.
Additional isolated convection will probably develop along the
dryline by late Thursday afternoon across parts of north/central TX
as the second shortwave trough approaches the southern Plains. This
activity may initially be supercellular with a threat for large hail
given steep mid-level lapse rates and potentially moderate
instability. With time, convection will likely grow upscale into an
MCS along the quickly advancing cold front. This MCS should have a
greater wind threat as it moves generally east-southeastward
Thursday evening/overnight across central/east TX, the ArkLaTex, and
eventually lower MS Valley. A rather strong low-level jet should
also be present over east TX into AR/LA Thursday evening. With ample
low-level shear forecast, any supercells that can form and remain
ahead of the cold front/MCS should pose a tornado threat.
Great - we'll be driving through that mess.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 4:30 pm Headed to Des Moines for the first two rounds of the tourney.

Snow and teens/20s! Love it.
Wish I were there. Driving to Greensboro area and beyond, but the NCAAT committee pulled a switcheroo sending Duke to Orland.

A&M was seeded #7 by spite to play t.u. I think the Aggies can pull the upset, but need to win their first game against Penn State first.
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DoctorMu
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Here's an image of the near Mercury and Venus conjunction:
IMG_5650.jpeg
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MontgomeryCoWx
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:43 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 4:30 pm Headed to Des Moines for the first two rounds of the tourney.

Snow and teens/20s! Love it.
Wish I were there. Driving to Greensboro area and beyond, but the NCAAT committee pulled a switcheroo sending Duke to Orland.

A&M was seeded #7 by spite to play t.u. I think the Aggies can pull the upset, but need to win their first game against Penn State first.

Are you a Duke fan too?
Team #NeverSummer
spadilly
Posts: 86
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 3:24 pm
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Day 2 maps from the SPC:
Attachments
day2otlk_0600.gif
day2probotlk_0600_hail.gif
day2probotlk_0600_wind.gif
day2probotlk_0600_torn.gif
Cpv17
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Doesn’t look like much of a severe weather event south of I-10. Oh well. Hopefully can get at least a half inch outta it. Need some rain down here.
Cromagnum
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I'll take rain without the severe stuff, but recent track records means it will just be a broken line for us.
Iceresistance
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Slight Risk now includes Houston, Enhanced risk now in place for DFW.
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jasons2k
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Well at least I should get rain out of it. According to this around an inch:

Thursday
A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 45. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Friday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Cpv17
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The hi-res models don’t seem very enthused about much rain.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 8:08 pm The hi-res models don’t seem very enthused about much rain.
HRRR has weak streamer showers tomorrow during the day with a line of showers around midnight. Sever seems unlikely, especially S of CLL. I think we'll get some rain. Maybe half an inch, possibly more.

South of I-10 looks more sparse on the Mesos.

Image
Cromagnum
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It is quite windy today. It may not necessarily be in our area but someone has plenty of fuel to work with for storms.
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jasons2k
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Weather App shows 35 here Monday AM :shock:
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 10:26 am Weather App shows 35 here Monday AM :shock:
33 here. I’ll take it!
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don
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Looks like most of the precip is going to be post frontal,so im not concerned about severe weather.Still looks like a pretty rainy day for those along and north of I-10 as a disturbance passes through behind the front.
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