April 2023

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 210954
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
454 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023


While the MCS will be on the way out of the CWA shortly, not going
to drop POPs entirely until late this afternoon as we are still a-
waiting the passage of the 85h front. Activity with this line will
likely be limited (but not zero) given the worked over environment.
Some daytime heating and lingering moisture could produce isolated
to widely scattered convection...with the better chances generally
east of I-45 (and perhaps south of I-10). As for temperatures, the
window between the exiting MCS and arriving cold front could get a
bit warm for the CWA. The combination of insolation/SW flow at the
lower/mid levels could push highs into the lower to maybe even mid
80s for the central/coastal counties this afternoon. Mid and upper
70s are expected for our northern counties.

But by tonight, cooler/drier air will be filtering into the region
as high pressure builds in briefly behind the front. With clearing
skies and modest CAA/north winds, low temperatures tonight will be
in the lower to mid 50s north...mid to upper 50s central and south
(including the Houston metro) and the mid 60s along the beaches.

Even with the surface high moving east, Sat should be mild/dry and
pleasant as east winds develop across the CWA. Highs to range from
the mid and upper 70s. Sat night lows will run a couple of degrees
warmer as the winds become more E/SE. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

An increasingly progressive upper pattern forecast for the extended
period across the CONUS should translate to a messy/wet weather for
SE TX for the first half of next week. A series of embedded distur-
bances in the zonal flow aloft along with the rapid return of deep-
er moisture from the Gulf appear to be the main impetus for showers
and thunderstorms starting as early as early Sun morning from the W
before tracking into the area Sun afternoon/evening.

Depending on the timing of these short-waves, Mon through Wed could
be a mix of mostly wet and sometimes dry. Did go ahead and keep the
mention of at least scattered POPs in for much of this time frame...
with chances picking up Weds/Thurs as models are indicating the next
cold front moving into the region. With the increased clouds/chances
for rain, temperatures should run at/just under normal for the week,
mainly in the mid and upper 70s for highs with lows the 50s and 60s.
41

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Messy wet TAFs should be coming to an end at the start of this next
12Z package. A lingering mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings should improve by
mid to late morning with light NW winds becoming more W/SW...mainly
for locations south of the cold front. We could see additional TSRA
later this afternoon with the passage of the surface/85h front, but
not confident enough with timing/location to include the mention of
VCTS at this time. VFR expected across the regionby sunset tonight.
41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms along with elevated winds and
seas will continue across the area mainly this morning. A cold front
will move off the coast and through the waters later this afternoon
and through this evening. Mainly moderate north and northeast winds
in the wake of the front will veer to the east over the weekend. We
are monitoring the potential for additional storms developing in the
Hill Country early Sunday then possibly tracking southeast toward
the Matagorda Bay area and adjacent coastal waters late in the day
or evening. If this materializes, strong winds and rough seas could
occur on Sunday and Monday. East to southeast winds and elevated
seas (along with periods of showers and thunderstorms focusing on
Monday and Tuesday) are anticipated for the first half of the week.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 52 78 56 / 40 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 81 57 79 59 / 40 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 79 66 75 69 / 50 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until noon CDT today for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...41
MARINE...42

[Cromagnum]

Caught about 1.5 inches in my rain gauge finally, but it was coming in sideways so it may have underestimated. Yard is very wet and outta be quite happy in a day or two.

[jasons2k]

Just emptied 1.77”

The lawn is happy.

[don]

Looks like there will be another MCS on Sunday,models are not 100% on the same page though on exactly where it ends up.For right now the best chances seems to be in our southwest counties.

[DoctorMu]

Some Bay City rollers popped up a few minutes ago.

Early, would have expected that Saturday night.

[Stratton20]

Lol it’s interesting to see the EPS ensemble has a low probability of tropical development associated with this next MSC once it moves off shore, doubt anything will come of it, but just a reminder that hurricane season is getting closer

[tireman4]

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Currently a mix of MVFR & high end IFR conditions across northern
parts of southeast Tx along the frontal boundary, and mainly VFR
across southern parts. Look for cloudiness to sag southward into
the metro & coastal areas as the afternoon progresses. Not real
confident on ceiling heights as guidance is a bit pessimistic
compared to observations, so will trend TAFs a bit higher there &
amend as necessary. Some hires models show a few isolated shra
developing this afternoon, but with sparse overall coverage &
significance...won`t mention in the TAFS attm. Clouds scatter out
north to south as the afternoon- evening progresses with VFR
conditions prevailing overnight. Winds will become north today
then veer to the ne-e-se in the late night through afternoon hours
Saturday. 47

[Iceresistance]

Legit SOI crash, yesterday's daily SOI was at -19.97, and today is -26.39

[Cromagnum]

Legit SOI crash, yesterday's daily SOI was at -19.97, and today is -26.39

El Nino on the way. Bring it!

[brazoriatx]

What's the chances for rain tomorrow? I gotta move out of my apt and I'll be hauling furniture in the back of a truck

[don]

What's the chances for rain tomorrow? I gotta move out of my apt and I'll be hauling furniture in the back of a truck

A MCS will be moving into the Corpus area tomorrow.The HRRR shows a decent chance of light to moderate showers especially for areas south of I-10.As the northern 1/3rd of the MCS clips the southwestern portions of SE Texas.While saying that the NAM for a few runs now continues to show more of a washout tomorrow with the MCS taking a more northern route into the coastal bend/SE Texas.Such a scenario would lead to heavier rain and thunderstorms instead of showers. We'll see tomorrow which model ends up being more accurate.0Z NAM vs 0Z HRRR

[DoctorMu]

Looks like a bust here as the MCVs separate. Maybe some light rain and cool temps tomorrow. That's OK - We received 1.74 in of rain Thursday night.

[DoctorMu]

The high tomorrow should be at midnight. Temps decreasing to the upper 50s in the afternoon.

[DoctorMu]

Hmm... the NAM 3K is progging more rain around here and HOU than the other mesos.

[don]

Looking at the radar, the NAM seems to be the winner.

[don]

Feels like Fall today.

[DoctorMu]

Feels like Fall today.

Late Fall at that. I'll take it. We only got a trace but are in good standing rainwise for now. Glad to see South of I-10 getting in on the action this afternoon.

[jasons2k]

Feels like Fall today.

Late Fall at that. I'll take it. We only got a trace but are in good standing rainwise for now. Glad to see South of I-10 getting in on the action this afternoon.

Yep, kinda chilly with the wind. We may see 40’s again next weekend too.

No complaining this summer that we only have two seasons - haha.

[DoctorMu]

Yep, looks like a POWerful ENSO flip from last year's summer, fall and winter, with El Nino barreling in like a freight train.

A summer of rain? It would be a welcome change up here in CLL. Can we escape the Death Ridge for just one summer? ...and months without significant precipitation?

Last summer was absolutely brutal. We're still replanting all the dead stuff from last summer. In CLL, summer rather than winter is the killing season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AUzkcr4oQo

[sambucol]

With El Niño, will we have a cooler summer this year?