April 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Stratton20
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Global models are definitely trending much wetter during the first week of april
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Mar 30, 2023 12:05 pm Global models are definitely trending much wetter during the first week of april
Potential rain bomb could be setting up somewhere. Don’t know exactly what part of Texas yet though or if it even happens at all.
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don
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Late next week is looking really interesting its been a while since we've seen a signal this wet in the models.With a large scale trough digging to our west with a blocking SE ridge slowing the trough down.Which stalls the subtropical jet right over the state with multiple disturbances passing through .Severe weather could be an issue also.Anyone's guess at this point where the heaviest rain will fall,but there could be flooding issues with rivers/bayous if these widespread qpf amounts end up verifying.
Last edited by don on Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Stratton20
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Im hoping west texas can really get alot of rain as well, el nino is going to really help so many people, and especially farmers
Stratton20
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12z Euro is very wet, has some pretty hefty totals across the state next week fwiw
18z GFS has widespread 1-3 inches across SE texas with some isolated 6+ inches
Cpv17
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The 0z Euro is mighty interesting for southeast TX.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Wet tine! :D
Team #NeverSummer
Stratton20
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00z Euro is just a tad bit wet😁😂 definitely would be looking at some flooding issues if those totals verify
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don
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Yikes.
Screenshot 2023-03-31 at 10-06-35 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
Cpv17
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The EPS/Euro are both significantly wetter than the GEFS/GFS. Till both of these come together, not too much confidence. The GFS has consistently had the rain bomb further north.
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don
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The ICON looks like the EURO on where it sets up the main corridor of rain fwiw.Its going to depend on where the frontal boundary stalls and the orientation of the subtropical jet on who gets the heaviest rain's.Regardless everyone locally should at the very least get a couple of inches out of this setup.Below is the difference in qpf amounts between the GFS vs EURO.Still a long ways to go before we know the finer details.
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Screenshot 2023-03-31 at 10-23-49 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2023-03-31 at 10-06-35 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
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captainbarbossa19
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don wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 10:50 am The ICON looks like the EURO on where it sets up the main corridor of rain fwiw.Its going to depend on where the frontal boundary stalls and the orientation of the subtropical jet on who gets the heaviest rain's.Regardless everyone locally should at the very least get a couple of inches out of this setup.Below is the difference in qpf amounts between the GFS vs EURO.Still a long ways to go before we know the finer details.
From what I have seen, the Euro solution is more likely because models often have a bias of not progressing fronts far enough south. We will see, but this isn't the first time I have seen models stall a front too far north.
Stratton20
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Honestly though even with the GFS being further north, still has widespread 2-4 inch amounts across SE texas, at least we have decent agreement that everybody could be in for some very beneficial rains
Stratton20
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12z Euro has widespread 2-4 inches with isolated 6-8 inches + in some spots
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DoctorMu
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 10:55 am
don wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 10:50 am The ICON looks like the EURO on where it sets up the main corridor of rain fwiw.Its going to depend on where the frontal boundary stalls and the orientation of the subtropical jet on who gets the heaviest rain's.Regardless everyone locally should at the very least get a couple of inches out of this setup.Below is the difference in qpf amounts between the GFS vs EURO.Still a long ways to go before we know the finer details.
From what I have seen, the Euro solution is more likely because models often have a bias of not progressing fronts far enough south. We will see, but this isn't the first time I have seen models stall a front too far north.
The Ensembles have really bought into 2-5 inches of rain in the 7-10 day forecasts.
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DoctorMu
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19 tornado warnings in 7 different states. Nashville *could* be under the gun in the next few hours. Hopefully instability settles down before there is damage in Nashville.
Stratton20
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Euro 00z Run has some isolated bullseyes of 10-12 inches of rain across parts of SE texas fwiw, will be interesting to see what the mesocale runs show once they get in range next week
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Apr 01, 2023 2:18 am Euro 00z Run has some isolated bullseyes of 10-12 inches of rain across parts of SE texas fwiw, will be interesting to see what the mesocale runs show once they get in range next week
Yeah. Usually mesoscale models are more intense than globals so that’s definitely alarming.
Cromagnum
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Real bad night in many areas last night.
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